Final Prediction: Who do you think will win? (not who you want to win)

I thought you asked who you thought was going to win, not who you want to win?

Are you expecting Trump to successfully throw out millions of ballots or something?

 

...hopefully with your tail between your legs.

 

Biden will inarguably win the popular vote by a lot, and will almost certainly win the electoral college if all votes are counted legally.

Will our democracy be respected after he wins, unfortunately far less certain of that.

 

There is no way Trump wins and the democracy remains intact.

 

Trump will win.

Why, you ask?

Spoiler

 

At least someone here has faith in the courts (to throw out millions of votes in favor of other throwing democracy)

 

And it is supposedly Trump who is ruining democracy. People who talk like you are the problem.

 

If the left loses and throws a hissy fit will you condemn it?

 

I admit I'm uneasy but I will stand by my prediction that Biden wins. I think Biden will easily win the popular vote and by a margin larger than Clinton did. The electoral college is a different matter and I think it will be close there.

Trump to win depends on winning exactly what he did last time. At the moment he's done nothing to expand his support and it seems very unlikely he will flip any states that Clinton won. The polls though are close in several of the battleground states and if we factor in margin of error and the margin the polls were off in 2016 Trump can win those states. I have my doubts though that the polls are as off as they were in 2016.

The biggest factor to me that can still swing the election to Trump is the amount of shenanigans regarding voting, the vote count and certifying. We're already seeing a lot of those with several court cases regarding accepting votes after the Nov. 3rd and the case regarding drive thru voting in Harris County. We're already seeing voting intimidation with unofficial "poll watchers". In MI a case allows people to show up openly carrying at the polls and In MN there was a call by the Trump campaign for retired LE to show up at polls. I predict during the counting there will be many challenges along the line of 2000, and then there will be fights to certify.

I will also say that it is very unlikely the night of the 3rd or the morning of the 4th we will know for sure who won.

 

biden will win.

the question ..and my hope is whether there are enough for biden votes in person and before nov 3 ..that even if mail in , drive thru and whatever else rejected that its still not enough to tip to trump.

so need a landslide. i refuse to believe usa is this dumb and we are about to find out.

thats why 125k is a big number for texas where you would think likely 80k of those would be biden..

trump has the metrics for each and every county its going to be this cherry pick attempt at that. houston being an obvious one. i was expecting disruption at key polling spots on day of so this houston move is part of that ..

the early voting has offset that though. an unexpected factor I think repugs didnt expect. repugs were hoping for day of disruptions too just underestimated early... day of shenanigans is in play for sure still.

maybe im wrong overall but i think lots of people sat out last time not wild about hillary and the trump vote last time a protest vote in of itself..sorta a novelty vote like jesse the body or the governator.

it will be interesting to see how the media cnn vs fox /rush wars and facebook play into the information of average person... how that shapes it.

if the virus hadnt happened trump would likely coasted to a landslide himself. crazy how he botched it and also failed to unite usa around china and make them the boogie man. it was a layup and for all his boasting and hes the man talk the fact
is he f*cking blew it

 

OP, I'd argue, just based on the most populous states alone and the fire-in-the-belly for, say, California and New York, Trump has really zero chance to win the popular vote. I think he has a tiny-fist puncher's chance to win the electoral college in a squeaker.

But a clear Biden victory in the E.C. (low 300's vs high 100's) is more likely than a Trump squeaker. I believe a Trump landslide or even comfortable victory is now impossible, given his national unfavorability ratings.

The models at 538 and the Economist and others lead me to believe in that prediction. I've never heard of voter turnout numbers like the ones we're seeing.

What's interesting and also sad to me is the amount of raw data one has to ignore to arrive at a prediction for a Trump popular vote win. I know you don't want to debate, but I hope for an American future where we can all sit with the same data and discuss it rationally, as we did in my youth, the Cronkite days, if you will. Peace and best wishes.

 

The data shows pretty clearly that Biden is likely to win so I’m a data guy.

However I think the more relevant prediction is analyzing what happens if Trump wins Florida and all the other states are in play for a couple of days. Apparently Arizona will be an early call too with Florida on election night with the way they count ballots.

I predict Trump will win Florida and Biden ends up still winning by winning MI/PA/AZ and Georgia being the big shocker nobody saw coming. I predict Wisconsin is a shocker going to Trump and Texas barely stays Red but Republicans lose the majority of state house.

I also predict that MI and PA get their votes counted early enough to avoid a stop counting order from the Supreme Court even though that litigation sends shock waves and freaks everyone out and destroys whatever credibility the SCOTUS has and that plays a huge part in court reform over the next 8 years. Trump v Biden in PA will be the global disgrace that stains our Democracy for a generation.

 

I'm now feeling Republicans voter suppression will be successful enough to win...

 

Sure its people like me that is the problem and not people like you who try to intimidate voters and suppress votes, and definitely not Trump with his rhetoric and actions to undermine and delegitimize our electoral process, while sucking up to dictators and authoritarian regimes.

Buzz when you are cured of your self delusions

 

Biden will likely win the popular vote. But the electoral college will be what wins the election. Skip to the end for my overall prediction if you don't care about state-level opinions.

• Michigan and Wisconsin are in play because of the law and order issue and economic issue Trump wins on these issues. (though he has a chance... I see Biden winning still)
• That said, I think Trump has a good chance of taking Ohio and PA. Largely this is because of again economic policy, trade policy, energy policy, and law and order related issues.
  
• Texas will stay red and is not a true toss up.
• Florida is also not a tossup. It will go blue at first until the next hour of counting occurs in its later time zone, and the rural counts will turn it red in the end.
• Georgia... goes to Trump. Biden doesn't have a strong enough lead here in polling to convince me otherwise with less than a point between him and Trump who has shy voters.
  
• North Carolina and Arizona are not going Biden... The polling gap is too small for Biden who lacks an enthusiastic base and plus Trump's "shy" or I should say intimidated voters will fill in such a gap and more.
  
• Arizona may go to Trump, but Biden has the advantage here. Aggregate polling says Biden boasts a 1% lead. I call it for Trump then with the intimidated Trump voters coming out of the woodwork.
  
• PA will go Trump. Economically one candidate flat out wants to take bread off their table. People are going to FIGHT like their livelihoods depend on stopping a Biden presidency.

With this said, and most votes going to the other more obvious outcomes, I predict a closer election this year with Biden taking home 259 electoral votes, while Trump wins with 279 electoral votes.

 

I don't intimidate anyone. In fact I can't tell a lot of people my vote because I am intimidated. I face social stigma for voting Trump because I like his policies better. Get out of here with that. Trump's intimidated base will speak up at the ballot so get ready for an L.