Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and one million radio transmitters in the galaxy. ET first contact 'within 20 years' If intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their transmissions within two decades. That is the bold prediction from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California. Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in computing power. Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals. For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and one million radio transmitters in the galaxy. To find them will involve observing and inspecting radio emissions from most of the galaxy's 100 billion stars. The time necessary for this formidable task can be estimated from the capabilities of planned radio telescopes such as SETI's 1-hectare Allen Telescope Array and the internationally run Square Kilometre Array and expected increases in the power of the microchips that sift through radio signals from space. Alien civilisation Shostak assumed that computer processing power will continue to double every 18 months until 2015 ¬ as it has done for the past 40 years. From then on, he assumes a more conservative doubling time of 36 months as transistors get too small to scale down as easily as they have till now. Within a generation, radio emissions from enough stars will be observed and analysed to find the first alien civilisation, Shostak estimates. But because they will probably be between 200 and 1000 light years away, sending a radio message back will take centuries. Paul Shuch, executive director of the SETI League, a separate organisation in New Jersey, says Shostak's prediction ignores one important factor. "It is altogether reasonable to project the development of human technology, based upon past trends and planned investments," he says. "But predicting the date, the decade or even the century of contact is another matter because the 'other end' of the communications link is completely out of our hands. It would be nice to think we know something about the existence, distribution, technology and motivation of our potential communications partners in space, but in fact, we don't." Shostak admits that there are myriad uncertainties surrounding his prediction, but he defends the basis on which he made it. "I have made this prediction using the assumptions adopted by the SETI research community itself." New Scientist
The minute Americans see 'civilisation' instead of 'civilization',we figure it will be boring and don't read any further. "...... how many of those planets might be expected to have life " Now see there's your kicker. What evidence do you think led them to select the number they did? Spectral analysis of even a tiny percentage of planets even within our own solar system? Nah, can't do that yet, this is an absolute bull**** number that you can't even make an educated guess at.
From reading the GARM sometimes, I've come to the conclusion CFN has already made contact with aliens. Some of those trade ideas are from outer space. This is one of those articles that leave you thinking, "yeah, that's nice, but... lemme know when you find 'em".
you know, i tend to agree. i'm open to the possibility there's life out there. but, hell, we don't know what's out there at all. how in the world could we possibly guess and keep a straight face?
That would be great.....maybe make the rest of the world realize our petty arguments are a waste of time DD
Good morning. In less than an hour, aircraft from here will join others from around the world. And you will be launching the largest aerial battle in the history of mankind. "Mankind." That word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can't be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it's fate that today is the Fourth of July, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom... Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution... but from annihilation. We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win the day, the Fourth of July will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the world declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night! We will not vanish without a fight!" We're going to live on! We're going to survive! Today we celebrate our Independence Day!
But that was a bad speaker! Anyone disagree that Pullman is the worst main stream actor of our generation????
Exactly. If we'd found evidence of even single-cell life forms anywhere else we'd explored (and I know this is an incredibly minute sample, almost infinitesimally small), I think you could then logically proceed to assume life exists elsewhere in the universe. All we have to this point is evidence that some conditions where life could conceivably result exist in the universe. That's not (IMO) enough evidence to proceed as though you can make the assumption life has ever evolved anywhere at anytime. Earth might just be a biological mistake. We have no way of knowing if life will always, most of the time, sometimes, or almost never, exist on Earth-like planets. I do agree it seems likely that there is life elsewhere in the universe just based on the sheer numbers.
