I think the Astros missed their window, but I think extending Hunter Brown should be a priority. Those who pay attention know that I am categorically opposed to long-term commitments to pitchers, and an advocate for them for position players. This is simply because of injury risk. Hunter has 3 years of control left, so if the Astros want to avoid a 6+ year, $150M+ contract it needs to get done before 2026. And I think 5 years is the sweet spot. It buys out 2 FA seasons, so the balance between extra risk vs benefit is about right, but Hunter would still be able to get another big contract at age 32. Regression due to age for pitchers is a couple of years behind hitters. Blake Snell signed 5/$182M at age 32. Zach Wheeler signed 3/$126M at age 33 Aaron Nola signed 7/$172M at age 31 You have to gamble occasionally, and Hunter has shown everything you need: No injury risk (outside of what all pitchers have), A #1 who is still getting better, and proven post season performance. If you expect him to make $30M in arbitration and want him to give up any FA years, he will want those years to be $35M+. Including cheaper, arbitration seasons is the only way the Astros can afford him. 5 yrs / $100M = $20 M AAV It would have been better to do 6 yrs last year, as the amount likely would have been significantly less and reportedly he was actively asking. Then he hired Boras when it didn't happen. He has made $3M so far and will likely get $4-5M in arbitration over the winter, so that may be enough in the bank for him to bet on himself, but adding a $95-96M guaranteed may be enough to convince him. But it sure looks like the price is going up every start and he looks the part of someone you gamble on. He has ACE energy.
Totally agree with this and I would go 6 years. As long as the Stros have pitching they've got a chance to win a WS. Hunter is the leader of the next wave of young starting pitching. Just like JV was the leader of the last group of young starting pitchers. You pay leaders, especially when they're young.
I would be willing to go 6 if that was what made it happen. I just think Hunter would prefer 5 to be a FA at 32 rather than 33. I think he would rather do 4 to get $60M+ in the bank and be a FA at 31 but that isn't enough value to the Astros to justify 4 years of risk. I think buying out 2 years of FA is the perfect balance.
Yeah I don’t understand this ‘missed window’ I keep seeing. Extending Hunter Brown during that run he was on last year would’ve been risky considering the sample size, especially for a pitcher. The right move was waiting to see how the rest of the league would adjust and giving him a few starts early this season to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. The window to extend him is now. But I have zero confidence they actually get it done.
This isn’t our decision. It’s Hunters. You’ll have to go ten years to gain any traction in getting you to the negotiating table, but even then Hunter may prefer to wait and obtain full market value. this is the guy where Crane really needs to change his stance on long term commitments. I also think he needs to be uber aggressive in getting a deal done while he’s under team control. This one is a no brainer. Totally agree with OP
Reportedly, Brown was actively shopping for an extension during the 2023-24 offseason and 2024 Spring training. When he wasn't able to get one before the 2024 season started, he then hired Scott Boras
Because once a star player gets to arbitration, he has enough money to never work again the rest of his life. The longer you wait, the harder it is to get the player to agree to not test free agency. Free agent money is just crazy. And that goes for replacing guys you lose as well. Reportedly, it was before last year that he wanted the extension. At that point he still had 5 years of control, so the extension would be at least 7 years. No way I do that. But prior to this year, after what he showed last year? I do a 6yr extension in a heartbeat. Guys who have MVP/Cy Young talent are rare, and you need to keep them if you can, even at a premium. And using arb and pre-arb seasons to keep the AAV down is the best way to do it. Of all the great pitchers the Astros have developed in the past 10 years, Framber and Brown are really the only 2 who are worthy of Cy Young consideration.
Buy low, sell high. Extending people or signing free agents after career years is a great way to overpay nearly 100% of the time. If you believe in your evaluation system and ability to identify the right guys, the time to extend people is when they aren't certain they'll make a fortune as a free agent. Realistically, that time has likely passed now for Brown. If he believes he can stay healthy, being a FA at 30 yrs old is the ideal opportunity to get a mega-deal.
This is reasonable. I just hope they learn from it and don't miss the next opportunity. If Brown stays healthy, he is going to make BANK.
Well sure, but that's betting on a whole lot of years for a SP who hadn't done **** until his last 30 starts, going back to early ast year.
Absolutely - but that's the only way you get guys cheap. The Astros have to be able to see that Brown is *going* to be good before he actually is. Otherwise, you're likely just going to be paying market value, unfortunately - which isn't horrible, but doesn't provide anything special in the bigger picture. You can't build a WS roster with tons of guys making market value. The whole Astros run from 2017-2023 was marked by having star players significantly underpaid - in 2017, it was endless offensive players. In 2022, it was a ton of pitching. Right now, the Astros don't really have that - their good players are getting paid, and their younger players are fairly mediocre (Brown is the major exception). Paying more good players market value doesn't really move the needle for them.
That all said, the ESPN article about Brown's transformation last year was an interesting puff piece, but I thought it actually was kind of disturbing. Brown talked to Astros hitters to figure out how to pitch better, and it caused him to identify a change that transformed his entire game. But the question I had when reading it was why didn't the Astros' front office and pitching coaches figure this out? They actually took his best pitch out of his arsenal from what I can tell. So far it's an exception in their crazy-good pitching reputation, but it seems like a pretty big failure on the part of the Astros. How Astros' Hunter Brown became calendar year AL Cy Young - ESPN
