I'm no expert and this is just for fun. Regular Season: 45-49 wins. The year before last the Rockets won 45 games. If MoT keeps off the fatties and is in shape and Stevie has limited migraines/injuries they should easily be near the 45 win mark. The additions of Yao and Nachbar, although great picks, will not lead us to the promised land (NBA finals)....this year. Playoffs: 6th, 7th or 8th spot with first round defeat. If the Rockets were in the East they could be a top 4 team. But they are not and will battle just to get in the playoffs. I hope they win 1 or 2 games and are competitive in all the games. Although disappointing, I believe this would be considered by everyone (coaches, players and fans) a great year and a stepping stone for the next year. Individual Players: Stevie and Cat will score a little less because there are many more options for the team but they will shoot much better shots. Stevie will also make the all-star team again as a starter. Steve will average 20-21 ppg, 5-6 rpg, 7 apg. Cat: 18-19 ppg. Moochie: 6 ppg, 5 apg We have a log jam at PF and I wonder how MoT, Griff and KT will all get enough playing time. KT needs 25 mpg because he is that good, Griff needs 25 mpg to assist his development and MoT needs 25 mpg because we pay him so damn much. Although I like KT, maybe they will deal him before the deadline. MoT will average: 12 ppg, 5 rpg. Griff: 10-11 ppg, 7 rpg, 2-2.5 bpg. KT: 9-10 ppg, 6 rpg I think Cato and Yao will end up evenly splitting up the time. Yao will not be a starter except when Cato is injured. Yao will not win ROY but the league wish they had tried harder to move up and take the #1 pick. Yao will dominate the rookie all-star game getting 25 pts, 15 reb, 5 ast and 5 blks. Cato: 6 ppg and 6 rpg. Yao: 10-12 ppg, 8-10 rpg, 2-2.5 bpg, 2-3 apg. Rice, if healthy (that's a big IF), will take a majority of the minutes at SF. Nachbar and TMo will battle in practice to see who gets the remaining minutes or starts when Rice is injured. I expect Nachbar to have an edge because he is a better shooter. Rice: 9-11 ppg, 36% 3pts. Nachbar: 6-7 ppg, 35% 3pts. TMo: 5 ppg, 25% 3pts. There will basically be a 9-10 man rotation with Collier, OT and Maddox on the outside looking in. What are your thoughts?
Rice will not start over Nachbar. He has no speed and would only slow the team down. Nachbar is only an NBA rookie he has been playing professionally for several years. Rice will come off of the bench if he is healthty enough to do so, but start with his old legs. No way will that happen.
40-50 wins Francis- 17ppg 10ast 6rebs 35-40mins Mobley-22ppg 2spg 4rebs 35-40mins Nachbar-13ppg 4ast 5rebs 25-30mins Griffin-14ppg 2.5blk 9rebs 25-30mins Ming-16ppg 2blk 11rebs 30mins Taylor-12ppg 6rebs 20-25mins
Man, there are some extremely optomistic fans in this thread. I doubt that all five of our starters will have averaged double figures. Francis averaging 10 assists, while he was only able to average around 6.5 last year? That would be awesome, but I think its a stretch. Rudy will have a lot of concerns to address concerning the rotation. Here are my takes... 1. Small forward: Rudy feels that the rookie needs to play his way into the lineup. So he may start Rice at first. Although, I think Nachbar should probably start because our starting lineup should be building towards the future of the franschise. Rice will make a pretty decent roleplayer to come off the bench and hit some 3s. 2. Power forward: As for now, I don't really think Griffin is ready to start yet. He showed some flashes of brilliance, but it was exactly that. Mo is too fat, while Kenny proved to be worthy of the spot. Maybe Griffin can slide between the 3 and 4, while Mo slides between the 4 and 5. 3. Backup shooting guard: I really didn't understand what happened with Oscar last year. For a while there it looked like he was quite a steal. He had decent defense, his awesome was fairly good and then all of a sudden he disappeared. I think we should wait and see how much Torres has improved over the summer and base the decision on his improvement or lack there of. Maddox would probably ride the IR unless he takes Norris's spot. As for stats I could imagine this... Francis: 20 pts, 8 assists, 5 rebounds Mobley: 20 pts, 2 stls, 4 rebounds Nachbar: 8pts, 3 asts, 3 rbs Thomas: 12 pts, 5 rbs Ming: 10pts, 9 rbs, 2.8 blks I feel that with the current rotation healthy we can expect to win at least 45 games. We are just too good to be out of the playoff picture.
micah1j, Not to be a number-nazi, but according to your expectations, if my arithmetic is right, the Rockets will be averaging 111-115 points a game. How many teams even averaged 100/game last season? According to ESPN, 4 teams. (http://espn.go.com/nba/s/2001/1219/1298892.html) Not too many, huh? The Rocket's posessions are going to have to result in points more often than last season, and faster, too. That's not going to happen on last season's offense, that's for sure. Assuming the rumours of a new offense are true, it's going to take time to implement, so expect a slow start -- and it would require even more ppg from the team to make up for that. If you're looking at player numbers only, you're going to be dissapointed, I think. Personally, my opinion is that the the individual stats are going to be very similar to last year, with Ming cannibalizing Cato's numbers signifigantly, and adding his own on top of it. I also expect that as the season goes on, you will see Cat and Steve scoring a higher percentage. We'll have enough offensive threats that the opposing team's defense will have to play our guards a bit more honestly. I really don't know how the SF and PF players are going to play out. None of the SF players have shown us anything yet, and how the PF position is going to pan out is, IMO, more dependant on Rudy's playing time decisions than the players. My guess is that for the majority of the season, you'll see Griffin in against the starters. Tthis does NOT mean I feel that Griffin will start -- I think that he's still in line behind MoT and Kenny for that honor right now. IMO, MoT will start the first quarter with his normal scoring run, and as he historically had a habit of dissapearing later on in the game, Griffin and MoT will swap roles, with Griffin matching up against the other team's stud PF, and MoT making the other team's bench PF feel impotent. I also would not be suprised if Rudy puts Kenny in at SF with MoT at the same time to create mismatches. However, IMO, the most signifigant changes that are going to happen aren't going to show in the individual player stats. In my opinion, you're going to see our bench positively feast on most other team's benches. Moochie, MoT, and Kenny are all potential starters on some other teams -- and I expect they'll be mostly playing against the bench. I expect that you will see a MUCH higher team shooting percentage, and our opponents will see a lower one. The mismatches our bench will present is only part of that -- since we'll have a lot of legitimate scoring options, I expect that the opposing team will have to respect ALL of our players on the court at any given time, and when they don't, we WILL make them pay for it... unlike last season. As far as our opponents seeing a lower scoring percentage goes -- well, with Ming and Griffin patrolling the paint, I think opposing teams are goign to be settling for a lot more outside shots than before. Now, for predictions -- player stats will be mostly the same with the exception of Cato, who might as well stay on the bench. Our wins will go up -- they'll go up enough that I expect nothing worse than the 6th seed in the playoffs.
