I hear a lot of people either saying that we should tank and have no chance at all at making the playoffs and I hear a few people saying that we DO have a shot at catching up, but I haven't seen a thread that actually looks at our situation in depth. If I missed a thread that has said what I am about to already then go ahead and close this thread. First up I'll take a look at the remaining schedule for the Rockets and try to project possible future wins/losses. Obviously, we may not win the games we are supposed to and we may win games no one thinks we will, but this is just to look at what we're up against. Houston Scedule: Current W/L: 35/32 Projected W/L: 46/36 New York (W) Chicago W Thunder W Clippers W Lakers L Washington W San Antonio W Boston L Indiana W Memphis W Utah L Charlotte W Phoenix L Sacramento W New Orleans W This is with us losing to all the teams with better records than our own save for beating the Thunder (whom we seem to handle fairly well) and the Spurs (who we HAVE to beat to have a chance). Is this possible? Absolutely. Is it likely? Well, that's for you all to decide. I'm a positive thinker. Now, with that said who are we going to be able to pass? Well, let me start with the "no chance in hell" scenario and talk about Portland. Portland Schedule: Current W/L: 42/28 Projected W/L: 48/34 Phoenix L Dallas L New Orleans W Thunder W New York W Denver L Sacramento W Clippers W Dallas L Lakers L Thunder L Golden State W As you can see, I even projected them to lose to the Thunder on a back to back, but in my opinion, they won't even lose this many. So, my conclusion with this one is no way in hell. But, what about San Antonio? I hear they have a tough schedule. They are currently six games ahead of us though. Could they possibly lose enough games to let us catch up? San Antonio Scedule: Current W/L: 41/26 Projected W/L: 45/37 Atlanta L Thunder L Lakers L Cleveland L Boston L New Jersey W Houston L Orlando L Lakers L Sacramento W Phoenix L Memphis W Denver L Timberwolves W Dallas L Now THIS is a brutal schedule. They could possibly only win four games the rest of the way and that's with assuming they will beat Memphis (who isn't a pushover anymore). With that said, Duncan and Ginobili are winners and they could possibly win you any given game. Of course, this is with us beating them as well. Keeping fingers crossed... Also, I didn't take into account back to backs as they don't seem to affect us as much as one would think and I'm not going to assume another team will lose just because of it either though I know it's a possibility. So what do you all think may happen the rest of the way? What game could we win that I think not? What game do you think the Spurs may win that I think not?
If you have us lose 4 games, we are out. Spurs are not whipping boy of the league, i.e. the Texas nest, especially when their season is on the line. I say very unlikely.
I was going to try and do some sort of probability model myself, then I realized there's already one around with all the pertinent data. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds If you really want to see the playoffs, pray for a Bradon Roy/Tim Duncan season-ending injury. That's pretty much the only realistic scenario where we may sneak in.
Now is a good time to start developing the young players in bud and hill. Its for improving the team in the near future by developing promising young players. Iti'll help us in the long run. If we just play veterans now in the hopes of 8th seed and a 1st round exit, we will regret it.
The only way is for either Manu or Duncan to get injured. There's no way the spurs currently are losing that many games...Not gonna happen
Its just not gonna happen. Its time to give Chase+Jordan 30 min each a game. Throw the ball to Jordan in the post, let him get some reps there. Run some plays for Chase where he has to CREATE a shot for himself. See how that goes. I know Chase can shoot coming off of curls and picks, but I want to see if he can beat his man off the dribble.
4 games in 5 days with an injured Kyle Lowry, I don't think it is going to happen. The Rockets will be lucky to go .500 during that stretch.
No way the Spurs will go 4-11 in the final 15 games, barring major injuries. Their last games vs, Lakers, Dallas, Denver, even Orlando, probably don't mean much to their opponents.
Houston Schedule: Current W/L: 35/32 Projected W/L: 40/43 New York (L/W) (one of two...McGrady goes off or completely sucks, going with the first) Chicago L (If Rose plays, he can pretty much man handle brooks) Thunder L (Durant & Westbrook are playing to damn good...) Clippers W Lakers L Washington W San Antonio L (Tim Duncan & Manu wont let them lose...) Boston L Indiana W Memphis L Utah L Charlotte L (their actually playing for something, and they also beat us already this season) Phoenix L Sacramento W New Orleans L (For some weird reason, they always seem to beat us, specially if they have Paul back) we end up with the...12th pick in the NBA Draft...(which we package with a NY pick to move up in the draft to around 6-8th pick)...
Forget the Spurs and the Blazers. There are 15 games left. The Rockets must win as many of them as they can. After that brutal fight with the former champs last night (who are pushing for 3rd seed against Atlanta) it will either toughen them up or make them fold. I think the former.
Depends on who's guarding him. He has an average first step but is athletic enough to maneuver himself once he gets them off balance and finish near the rim.
Basically need Portland to lose 3 of it's next 4 games and for us to win our next 5 including next Saturday's with L.A. It's possible. Portland has Phoenix, Dallas, and OKC so losing those 3 games with us winning our next 5 would put us 1 game back in the loss column. Then we have hope - but any other scenario and it's over.
Knowing the Rockets, we'll probably blow easy games to bad teams sometime during this stretch... Playoff aspirations are over.
As others have said there's just no way possible. According to the OP's scenario we'd have to go 11-4 and the Spurs 4-11. Knowing us 11-4 would be pretty tough but there's no way the Spurs go 4-11. It's like a punch to the gut knowing we won't make the playoffs. Our point differential over the first half of the season indicated that we had been lucky in achieving our decent record. Once the luck caught up with us, we came back down to earth and are now faced with lottery-land.
Very unlikely we make the playoffs, but anything is possible... Remember, we're not the only team trying to make the playoffs... We got stiff competition going into the post season and it's not looking good...
Honestly, only the top 4 teams in the East can compete. All of the playoff teams in the west have a shot (except for the Blazers) depending on the match ups. I believe if the Rockets make a nice run going into the playoffs they will be one of the top 5 or 6 teams to beat. LA Boston Cleveland Orlando Atlanta Houston Denver In a seven game series these teams can beat anyone including the Spurs, Jazz, Suns, Blazers, and Thunder. How do the Rockets match up with the Lakers? Bynum is better than Hill, but he will be coming off of an injury so Hill should be much quicker off the break. Scola is about the same as Gasol. This match up can go either way. Ariza and Artest are the same. Artest is getting old. Martin will make Kobe work on the defensive end. Battier will make him work on the offensive end. Brooks will run circles around Fisher. It comes down to the power of the Rocket bench. Battier, Budinger, Hayes, Lowry, and Andersen's six fouls are more valuable than anything Odom, Brown, and Farmar can bring for the Lakers. Even if this team makes the playoffs and gets swept (unlikely) that playoff experience will help a lot more next season than any draft pick in the teens. This young Rockets team needs NBA playoff experience together.
