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Evaluating the full 15-man roster, no Baxter, no NVE, probably no splash

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Desert Scar, Aug 4, 2005.

  1. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    If we sign Deke (we better), we have filled our 15 person roster, 12 active and 3 inactive(i) is allowed by the league. It looks something like this: (secondary role)

    5- Yao Deke (Swift)
    4- Swift JH Spoon (Bowen) Baker(i)
    3- Tmac Bowen (Sura)
    2- DW Barry Head (Sura)
    1- Sura James (Head) Ward(i) Mooch(i)

    An aside, assuming Deke cost 2-4 mil in 05-06, I think we get over lux tax land. Thus it is probable we will waive ONE guy and open up his roster spot, using the lux tax relief manover. That guy would be among Spoon (the biggest contract, but most useful of these players), Baker (somewhat smaller contract, biggest waste), and Mooch (slightly bigger contract than Baker, but a better bench warmer/fan relations official). I would guess Spoon would be the guy, or possibly Baker if that is enough salary relief.

    With this ONE spot, the most glaring hole is a big 2/athletic back-up 3. Almost by default I think it takes out NVE, certainly for a 2-year LLE. He does have skills that might be useful, but we just have too many short guards and combo guards. If he would sign a 1 year deal for the vet min (which then is partially funded by a league account over the 2 year players league min and also only counts partially towards the lux tax), perhaps we could afford to waive Ward for that spot, but otherwise IMO it is doubtful NVE is a Rocket. Jayson Williams from Duke is an even bigger reach, not only does he fit our smallish guard/tweener profile but is less proven than NVE. Now is not the time to eliminate a roster spot for such a player.

    The roster situation also takes out Baxter. I'd love to have signed him and given him a chance to earn back-up 4 minutes, but it just doesn't look possible. I would guess we can see about 2/3s in the market--Buckner or Demarr (Denver probably will not sign one of them, it looks like they have more talks with Buckner) , Kittles, DA, Spree, Houston, Finley (pipe dream), but we have to be realistic that the guy we end up will probably be for the vet min and have extremely modest expectations--Glover or maybe Travis Hansen more likely. Looking at the big picture, I do think we jump the gun on the Bowen signing. It certainly cost us Baxter or a flyer 2/3 like Glover/Hansen, maybe an opportunity for both. I'd gone with those guys to make us more athletic/more upside, but oh well.

    The only last thing that could be in the works is a sign and trade. James is our one proven guard who is athletic, so forget trading him. Sura is very versatile and does a lot of little things that helps the team, and do to his health concerns he has little trade value for other teams. So it is unlikely such a move would help us more than it takes away. If we do trade a guard, I think the guy would be Wesley. But as with Sura, I don't think the odds are good we could find a match for a player that would be better for us than DW in the 1st place. He was a high minute guy, generally effective and a good team guy. He could try to find a taker for Howard, probably the one way Baxter does make the team. But with his health concerns and escalating contract it would not be easy. It is also a risk Baxter can give you near what JH can do if Swift is MIA. Overall, JH (like our vet guards) is probably more valuable to us as a reliable and effective player (if healthy) than taking pittance or nothing from another team via trade. It would take a real special situation (legit starter) and picks (NY 2nd or our 1st in 06) for us to pull a sign and trade. If reports that JH (and maybe a pick) were offered for Stoudamire were true, this is the kind of play we would consider--but obviously the 1st response from Portland was not encouraging we could pull something like this off.

    In sum, I think our offseason is pretty complete. We might be opportunistic for a great value LLE signing of a swingman with size who falls into our lap (e.g., Dermarr, Spree, or if Houston/Kittles could pass our doctors), but do not be surprised if we are done of significant moves after securing Deke. More likely we stand pat and next year take our full MLE on the market for a guard upgrade next year, along with taking a lot more flyers on next year's Jay Williams, Baxters, Glovers, Demarr Johnsons (remember Den signed him for a 1 year min deal after his injury). This is not a high risk move, if the current guard group--still much better than at any point last season, is too bad, old or broken, we do have expiring contracts and some picks (NY 2nd, our 1sts) to make a move before the trade deadline when those contracts are most desirable to other teams with lost seasons. Keep in mind if nothing major happens it has been a great offseason already (assuming Deke is back, same roster + Swift + Head - Padget), we are just being greedy now. But that is OK, I am greedy when it comes to the Rockets too.
     
  2. leehoang

    leehoang Member

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    I agree with this. But I just want a new point guard, and would like to get rid of Sura and Wesley, and of course all the bad contracts that just warm the bench.
     
  3. AroundTheWorld

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    Desert Scar, slightly off-topic question that someone brought up in another thread: Are you the poster formerly known as "Sir Scarvajal"? Thanks.
     
  4. krosfyah

    krosfyah Member

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    Signing Bowen seems silly in one respect, I agree, but at this point I trust JVG. He always has method to his madness. I beleive he said he wanted to resign Bowen, Barry and Deke to maintain that chemistry we had last season. Yes, Bowen isn't too athletic. But if this team can gel like late last season (before JHow went down), then we'll be stronger than if we mix up the folks too much.

    But I agree that unless a great trade or LLE pickup comes along, this is our 2005-2006 team.
     
  5. gucci888

    gucci888 Member

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    Assuming we waive Spoon or Baker, that would open up a roster spot for Baxter. He wouldn't cost us more than the minimum, I think he would be a better insurance policy in case JH goes down.
     
  6. xiki

    xiki Member

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    All valid. However, all words from CD (and Berman!) indicate more changes are coming. Thus, cuts would seem to impend.
     
  7. declan32001

    declan32001 Member

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    Nice analysis as always Desert Scar. The only thing I disagree with you about is James. I think he's out of her next year regardless (when he opts out) and I don't think it's wise to really count on us being very close to a ring this year.

    As he is one of our few tradeable assets I think he needs to be shopped now and continually this year. Howard's contract is an issue but I think he's more of an important piece for the next 2 years than James unless we're willing to commit to Baxter or someone of his ilk and I just don't see JVG risking giving Baxter significant minutes.

    I like everone else love our chemistry, but I would like things to be shaken up a little before the trade deadline when this team will almost certainly be changed again. T-Mac and Yao are still young and we have to look to their peaks which are likely a couple of years away.
     
  8. apostolic3

    apostolic3 Member

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    While your positions are well thought out, I hope and think you are wrong about our offseason being complete.

    I think Baker is more likely to be waived with the one time "amnesty" because he has no chance at being on the floor next year. Spoon can conceivably get playing time.

    You can't rule out NVE just because of our tweener guard glut. He can contribute to this team and make it better. We can waive Ward to create a spot. I agree we CAN rule out Jay Williams because of the high likelihood he won't crack the rotation.
    Because a big SG/backup SF is our biggest current need, I predict we WILL swing a trade(s) involving MJ and/or DW and draft picks. Yes, these two proved to be contributors last season, but if we can get a younger bigger starting SG that improves our team, CD will pull the trigger.
    With (injury prone) Swift as our only other PF that can play, we probably will not trade JH. Like some of the players you mentioned, JH is more valuable to us than other teams.

    CD will make a "bold" move. It's coming sometime before October. Our offseason is not almost complete.
     
  9. harumph

    harumph Member

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    I could see us freeing up a roster spot by trading "last year" contracts with another team.

    eg. we send Ward & Baker to Toronto for Lamond Williams. Salaries are close enough to be allowed, they get 2 smaller expiring contracts & we get a bigger lemon & roster spot.

    I'd like to see Glover or Baxter on this team...
     
  10. harumph

    harumph Member

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    oops - that should be Lamond Murray, not Lamond Williams.


    ...been reading too much about jay/jason williams
     
  11. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    i think we will make a few more moves. it is clear that CD is looking to use the LLE (talks with buckner, spree, payton, damon, NVE, DA). once we have someone signed for the LLE we will work on bringing deke back.

    after using the LLE and signing deke we will make a cut.

    lets assume NVE works out, we would have wesley, JB, sura, james, nve. someone will have to be traded. sura and JB will stay for chemistry. wesley and or james will be moved.


    thats my prediction.
     
  12. Mav-Hater

    Mav-Hater Contributing Member

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    I can see the resemblence :D
     
  13. hooroo

    hooroo Member

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    Sura signed for less money and pushed himself even though he was broken. JVG pursued James for a long while he's not going to give up on him so early.

    The best defender on the team is Wesley. He's got Barry & Head to back him up. Is there enough minutes for another major player there?

    Tracy averages around 40mins a game. That's 8 minutes minus Rybo's time in segmented blocks for the athletic backup 3 you want.
     
  14. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    How sad that we fans are already resigned to the inevitability that Le$ will never allow the payroll to even go a dime into lux tax territory. Especially in light of what Arison did w/ the Heat this week. Especially in light of the fact that the Rockets are one of the top 3-4 NBA franchises in terms of profitability.
     
  15. JoeBarelyCares

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    The Spurs have proven that you can win a title without overspending. The Knicks, Mavs and Trailblazers have proven that you can spend money like crazy, and still never win the title. A rich owner is nice, but a smart GM is more important.
     
  16. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    The spers are the only one of the eight teams teams who went further in the playoffs than the Rockets, that wasn't over the lux tax threshold.
     
  17. themocitydon

    themocitydon Member

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    i would like to keep james. we should get rid of wesley instead. i actually liked the trade for wesley last year, until he vanished in the play-off and became horrid, airballing open three pointers. :mad:
     
  18. arkoe

    arkoe (ง'̀-'́)ง

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    I agree with others that Wesley's the obvious guard to move.
     
  19. tmac4prez

    tmac4prez Member

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    I agree about James being a "spark off the bench" but whose to say a guy like Dion Glover couldnt be? Or Luther Head for that matter. Its almost certain James will opt out right? So why let him walk away with out getting anything in return? If we do that we will be stuck in the same position with our old guards a year older. Clearly, we need a younger more athletic backcourt. And chances are slim, we will be able to sign someone to make that adjustment. Any players we can sign are going to be older, with a few exceptions. So the only real answer we have is a trade. Not neccessarily in the offseason though. Think about it from another teams perspective to trading with us. What tradable aspects do we have? (Besides McGrady, Yao, Swift.)
    Expiring contracts : Weatherspoon, Baker, Norris, Ward
    James has the option so you could basically call him an expiring right?
    Three point shooters : Bob Sura, Mike James, David Wesley, Jon Barry
    Young: Mike James, Luther Head.
    Height: Juwan Howard, Weatherspoon
    Versatility: Sura, Barry
    Healthy: James, Barry, Wesley
    Proven: Howard, Sura, Barry, Wesley, James

    Teams might want some expiring contracts but they arent going to send any young, athletic guard for merely expiring contracts. It would have to be a package deal. Agree? I think Mike James / David Wesley / Juwan Howard + expiring / picks or any combination like that would have to be the real things considered. So in summary I think James is the most tradeable asset we have.
     
  20. Nero

    Nero Member

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    Couldn't we move a couple of our expiring contracts for somebody's #1 pick next year?

    That would get rid of two spots, we would still get something in return, and the other team would get some cash to go after FAs instead of having to draft a rookie.
     

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