I think one of three countries will leave the Euro currency union during 2013: Greece, Spain or Germany. Someone has to leave, or the unlikely possibility that Spain, Greece and Portugal all default within the Euro happens. Greece: perhaps the most obvious candidate; mired in bad debt (much of it needing "restructuring"), 25% unemployment with .75% increases almost every month, social unrest, large defecit and no positive change in demand for their economy. Spain: at risk of a Greek default if they enter into the new bailout plan, 25% unemployment and rising slightly less than Greece, deflating real-estate prices after bubble, and no positive demand for exports. Germany: unwilling to run deficits at the expense of creating demand for its distressed neighbors, wants neighbors to act in a moral and responsible manner (austerity), and will experience its own recession and competitiveness issues when Eurozone trade surplus drops off. Greece is overburdened and must leave or has to default (restructure) much of its debt. If they don't leave, it may force Spain into accepting deflation through sovereign currency devaluation rather than deflation in the euro under austerity. Germany may very well leave, realizing that austerity measures will not help debt-burdened countries, and knowing it will likely be scapegoated for their failures.
Monaco. They're going to call in all those gambling debts the other countries owe them and the rest of the Euros will kick them out for not being cool about it.
I was reading about how Romania was in the process of switching to the Euro and never got around to it even though they are in the EU and their currency is pretty strong now.
Good choice. Cyprus was the worst hit country by Greece's restructuring earlier this year, but I think the size and scope of Cyprus will keep them in the Euro unless further Greek restructuring does not address their needs.
Agreed. Germany and France will never leave the EU. Germany will never leave because with German nationalism completely annihilated and treated with suspicion after the war, they have to turn to the ideals of Pan-Europe as a way to validate their nation and to some degree atone like a good nation is supposed to. Similarly, France will never leave because the EU represents the best way for it to control Germany. Greece and Spain I'd currently give a 5% chance, and that's probably generous.
Because Britain isn't quite European. Britain is in an odd place, where it sort of lingers between allying itself with the Anglo world and the remnants of its empire (aka being closer with the other English speaking countries and the United States in particular) or more being part of a Europe which they’ve always looked down on to some degree. From an American perspective, I do think it is absolutely crucial that we have closer relations with the British, as Britain is the only country which the United States trusts completely ( I guess Canada and Australia.) It’s a major reason why I’m completely stunned at the concept of Scottish independence and also get extremely irritated with American politicians both talking about how much they love the Israelis – they’re allies, but I don’t trust them at all.
When the Maastricht Treaty was being voted on, Britain was almost certainly going to vote No. They eventually voted yes when the EU granted them an exemption from joining the Euro. Denmark was also in the same situation. They were going to vote No until the EU granted them the same exemption. The other EU country not in the Eurozone is Sweden. Sweden didn't get an exemption but they found a loophole. The rules require you to go through a specific process before joining the EU Currency but originally it was left to member countries to proceed at their own pace so Sweden just decided to do nothing so they wouldn't ever meet the Euro requirements. Since the Swedish loophole, the EU changed the rules so countries couldn't do that. I believe some of the eastern European countries still aren't on the Euro because they haven't finished the process of joining the Eurozone but they'll eventually join.
It's not that hard to understand when you consider centuries of English domination. It's not just the Scotts that want independence in the UK, obviously many of the Northern Irish still want to leave but there is a growing independence movement in Wales and even in Cornwall. <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/fYU67AX4xDY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
I guess "stunned" is the wrong word, though I will note that there is practically no ideal in international affairs that I hate as much as self-determination. What I'm trying to say is that Scottish independence is incredibly bad news for the United States and I will incredibly disappointed if they do split apart.
