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ESPN's early look at the West/playoff contenders

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by xiki, Jul 21, 2003.

  1. xiki

    xiki Member

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    For you Stevie haters:

    Houston Rockets: Steve Francis is still Steve Francis. And after all the talk that Yao Ming had become the second-best center in the league last year, it still came down to Steve Francis averaging 21 points, six rebounds and six assists for them to win 43 games. The scary thing is that this year it could come down to Ming and they've still got Francis.

    Clippers are still long shots
    By Terry Brown NBA Insider
    Monday, July 21 9:09 AM ET

    The Los Angeles Clippers have always been a day late and a dollar short.

    But having already matched the Miami Heat's offer of $82 million over six years for Elton Brand and showing signs that they will do the same for Corey Maggette (six years at $42 million) and sign Lamar Odom (believed to be about $60 million over six years) while actively pursuing point guard Gilbert Arenas at another $60 million over six years as the free agent's favorite, according to the Orange County Register, they may end up being only a day late.

    They may have spent the right amount of money on the right type of players, but with the Western Conference perhaps better than it has ever been, done it at the wrong time.

    "This is the first time they haven't looked at their talent and said, 'Oh, well. Someone else will have to pay you now,' " a league source said in the Washington Times.

    But here is how the Western Conference looks to stack up once the league gets over the Clipper shock.

    The defending champions, swapping David Robinson for Rasho Nesterovic to caddie for two-time MVP Tim Duncan, are in the playoffs. The Los Angeles Lakers, with or without Kobe Bryant, are locks to make the postseason with Shaquille O'Neal, Gary Payton and Karl Malone. The Sacramento Kings remain deeper than either team and the Dallas Mavericks are right behind them. Add Sam Cassell and Michael Olowokandi to a Minnesota lineup that already features Kevin Garnett and Wally Szczerbiak and that's five of the eight available playoff spots.

    Too bad for the Clippers, who went 27-55 last year when the eight-seeded Suns won 44, there's at least five legitimate contenders for those three remaining berths.

    Here they are in no particular order:

    Portland Trail Blazers: Say what you want about Scottie Pippen leaving and Damon Stoudamire being shown the door, these guys won 50 games last year amid the turmoil, 49 before that and 50 the season before that one. In all, that's an NBA-record 20 consecutive playoff seasons.

    Phoenix Suns: Stephon Marbury had, perhaps, his best season ever last year and it had nothing to do with statistics. Shawn Marion was, again, an all-star and Amare Stoudemire, the Rookie of the Year, will soon be one. They won 44 games last year and pushed the Spurs as hard as anyone else in the playoffs not knowing what they had. Now they do.

    Houston Rockets: Steve Francis is still Steve Francis. And after all the talk that Yao Ming had become the second-best center in the league last year, it still came down to Steve Francis averaging 21 points, six rebounds and six assists for them to win 43 games. The scary thing is that this year it could come down to Ming and they've still got Francis.

    Seattle SuperSonics: They may have lost one NBA star in Payton but gained another one in Ray Allen. Put him on the court against a lot of NBA teams and he's the best player on the floor, finishing the season at 24.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game while drilling his usual 2.7 3-pointers a night. Don't forget about Rashard Lewis and a motivated Brent Barry. Payton may have owned the team, franchise and city. But as soon as he was shipped away, the team went from 22-30 to 18-12.

    Which brings us to:

    Los Angeles Clippers: With a possible starting lineup of Arenas, Maggette, Odom, Elton and Melvin Ely, the Clipper should become legitimate contenders to make the playoffs. In fact, they might have even been looking at home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. But that doesn't change the fact that they will be starting their third point guard in three years while their starting center will have had, at most, 18 starts last year in a conference that has only been getter better year after year.

    Clipper owner Donald Sterling may have decided to spend a lot of money on some awfully talented players. But so have nine other teams with the Jazz still having some $20 million in cap space and a 19-year playoff run at stake.

    Expect to see a few more stars in the Staples Center next season whether the Lakers are playing or not. But until Arenas and Ely prove that they're that much better than Andre Miller and Michael Olowokandi, the Clippers are still the Clippers and, the last time we checked, they still play in the Western Conference.
     
  2. DearRock

    DearRock Member

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    More and more depth is going to be the difference. That is why we need to have a roster of at least 14 players that includes a FA signing (the Polish guy) Tmo and BAD.
     
  3. DCkid

    DCkid Member

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    At least 14 Players? Are you anticipating a lof of injuries or what? If so, then we've got bigger things to worry about.
     
    #3 DCkid, Jul 21, 2003
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2003
  4. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Member

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    Sure, we can have a 14 man roster, but only 12 can suit up.
     
  5. bamaslammer

    bamaslammer Member

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    3 things have to happen for the Rox to go to the playoffs.......

    1. The Big Three of Franchise, Cat and Yao must make it through the season with a minimum of injuries.

    2. The defense must improve to JVG standards of excellence.

    3. Yao needs to go from merely good player to a great one averaging at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and a couple of blocks per game.

    If all three happen, I like the Rox in the first round against any opponent except for the Lake Show.
     
  6. redgoose

    redgoose Member

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    I agree we will make the playoffs and have a great young team.

    But there's 2 words that still bother me. "Zone Defense." And the rest of the league knows it.
     
  7. hooi

    hooi Member

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    I also think our team needs to gel.

    I still remember Mario Elie's comment about the Spurs 1 1/4 year into Tim Duncan's career.

    Mario said,"I can't figure out why that team is better than it is now. They certainly got the talent." Well, another few games later, the Spurs started to win like gangbusters.

    So far, we have Yao for only 0.9 of a season. I hope after a little bit more time the same thing will happen to us. I look at our roster and wonder why we can't be better than the way we are now.
     
  8. crossover

    crossover Member

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    definitely need to gel

    you look at the past season and it seems hard to put any blame on Yao for that
    you look at the past two seasons and you wonder why the team can't gel... kenny t gets traded and there's a circle of players that gets shunned out from the francis/cat group

    if we're not gellin again this season and it's got something to do with francis/mobes attitude, u got to wonder how long we should keep em
     
  9. DearRock

    DearRock Member

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    Depth is a concept that most people think of only in games situations. I used the term very broadly to include game situations, game to game and playoffs.

    Why the need? You can count them:

    - JVG is going to run, run and run, which requires energy;
    - JVG is going to play pressure defense which requires enerygy;
    - Notoriously tough practices
    - The NBA now has more back to backs than ever before which requires energy;
    - Injuries
    - The powerhouses in the West will have 14, especially the Lakers.
    - The west is such a god fight you have to go in there with some extra muscle. You have to save your horses for the stretch run.

    I am thinking that if MoT's other leg goes we are going to need to have another player step in and you do not want to go to the NBDL at that point. Last year there was all this talk about Mobes ankle and he needed rest and the team could not affford to get him rest. BS. If there is depth you reduce the chance of the ankle getting so bad in the first place. Depth could make the difference as to whether you enter the playoffs limping or fresh and ready.
     
  10. xiki

    xiki Member

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    Depth is fine for practice, but I expect JVG will have an 8 man rotation. Who fills those 8 slots are what concerns me. A lot.

    Players 9 - 10 may see some action due to injuries, specific match ups, fouls, or fatigue.

    Players 11 and 12 + IR 3...development? Bad contracts but on roster?
     
  11. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    What talent?? This is the first time the Clippers have had real talent to keep at the prices they were asking, imo. I think history shows that the Clipper's ineptitude was more about their miserable draft day decisions in the 80's-'90s (combined with Manning getting injured), than Sterling not keeping talent.
     
  12. DearRock

    DearRock Member

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    In fact if JVG stubbornly sets his rotation to eight then that does not concern me from a depth standpoint. I am more concerned with who replaces the person from 1 - 8 when one of the eight inevitably goes down or is ineffective.

    Talking about an eight man rotation, I doubt any of the top 5 teams in the west will have an eight man rotation, so why would JVG? Let us check out the Spurs in the playoffs:

    1 Duncan
    2 Robinson
    3 Rose
    4 Willis
    5 Jackson
    6 Gino
    7 Parker
    8 Speedy
    9 Bowen

    10 Ferry
    11 Kerr.....prime example of what depth is about
    12 Smith
     
  13. HillBoy

    HillBoy Member

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    I'm setting my expectations quite low: 46 to 48 wins with no playoffs once again. I'm taking this stance for several reasons:

    I have to see what type of offense JVG runs and how effective it will be against the other teams in the West.

    I have to see this team step up defensively and actually play good team defense.

    I have to see this team make dramatic strides in their shooting and scoring. Shooting 29% and struggling to reach the 75 point level just won't cut it this year.

    I have to see REAL improvement in Francis' point guard play. I expect to see his turnovers go down and his assists go up. I also expect his running the offense to produce a smoother less chaotic offensive flow.

    I have to see Mobley's shooting % go up and his outside shooting to be less streaky.

    I expect some improvement for Griffin but mostly because he'll be playing for a new contract. Until he shows the desire to be a real NBA player that Stoudemire and Jefferson showed last year, he will stink of bust. Whether JVG can get him to step up is the big question that must be answered.

    That's quite a bit that must happen and it would be unrealistic in my opinion, to expect the Rockets to make a real dramatic leap in this division especially with a new coaching staff and given the moves the other teams have made to improve themselves while the Rockets have essentially stayed pat.
     
  14. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    The Spurs used an 8 man rotation in the Finals.

    bench and rotation is not the same. The rotation plays a real role every game and come in at specific times of the game. They do not get DNPs for anything other than injuries.

    Guys like Kerr, Ferry and Smith were not rotation players, and got several DNPs. Kerr is a spot specialist.

    In the Finals, Willis really just played one game. There rest were

    DNP
    1 min
    3 min
    1 min
    1 min

    Those are not numbers of a rotation player.
     
  15. super_mario

    super_mario Member

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    46 wins will make it into the playoffs. Wasn't 43 wins the most wins by a team not to make the playoffs?
     
  16. dharocks

    dharocks Member

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    I think the most wins not to make the playoffs is 45... The number of wins we had in 2000-2001.

    Werd.
     
  17. Oski2005

    Oski2005 Member

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    JVG is going to make this team run? Man, what was I smoking when I watched the Knicks play during his time there? Whatever it was, it seemed to slow everything down like a half court offense or something. . .
     
  18. DearRock

    DearRock Member

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    I just do not understand how every year we get involved in this depth/rotation talk. I am asking for depth. The rotation discussion or size is not for me. In the playoffs there was a game where Kerr made the difference in the 4th Q. If they had Maddox, instead, things would have turned out differently. That to me is depth. If Rose was not able to play they would not lose a lot playing Willis instead of playing Collier. What I am wishing for is depth so that the drop in play, if you lose a player for whatever reason, will not be too significant. If the drop off is significant you will not go too far. If MoT or EG gets injured and we had to play Tmo, the drop would not be too significant. When Dalllas lost Dirk they had to come in with Walt which was too big a drop off.

    Given the budgetary constraints this is the deepest team that the Rockets can come up with:

    Ming, Cato, Bad

    EG, MoT, Tmo

    Posey, Rice, Nachbar

    Mobes, Hawk,

    Wink, Mooch, FA
     
  19. DearRock

    DearRock Member

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    It would be a mistake to think that JVG is limited to playing the way his team did in NY.
     
  20. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet

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    Walt was better than TMo. The only reason Dallas had a bigger dropoff is the Dirk is way, WAY better than Griffin or Mo T.
     

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