ESPN-Which NBA teams can chase superstar free agents?

Bobby Marks
Editor's note (May 21): This story has been updated with the latest analysis and intel.

NBA executives are calling this one of the most talent-rich free-agent classes in recent years. Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving, DeMarcus Cousins, Khris Middleton, Kristaps Porzingis, Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler headline the group of a projected 200 players who could hit free agency on July 1.

Despite the star-studded field and the salary cap projected to increase to $109 million (from $101.8 million), teams are still feeling ripple effects from the summer of 2016, when spending was at an all-time high. ESPN is projecting there will be only 10 teams with cap space this offseason, one more than in 2018. In 2016, there were 27 teams with room, and a year later there were 16.

While big names such as Leonard and Durant will see max offers, expect 2018's pattern of short-term contracts to repeat itself.

Keep in mind that if either Kawhi or KD leaves, the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors will not open up cap space to sign a replacement. The same holds true with players such as Irving in Boston and Walker in Charlotte.

Here is an early look at the teams that are projected to have cap space, including seven wild-card teams that could enter the mix in July.


Atlanta Hawks

Projected room: $41 million

Who returns: Kent Bazemore, Miles Plumlee, Trae Young, Alex Len, Taurean Prince, John Collins, Kevin Huerter. DeAndre' Bembry, Omari Spellman, Jaylen Adams, Deyonta Davis, first-rounder (own) and first-rounder (from Dallas)

Who may be gone: Dewayne Dedmon, Vince Carter, Justin Anderson, Alex Poythress and Isaac Humphries

Atlanta has made it clear that the summer of 2019 is not about chasing top-tier free agents. The continued development of this young core is still the priority. The Hawks' two top-10 picks will join a roster that already features six players on rookie contracts, including starters Young, Huerter, Prince and Collins.

Expect the Hawks to follow the script from the previous two summers: Identify teams looking to trade unwanted contracts with a draft pick attached.

After another season of development, the Hawks will be well positioned in 2020 with $80 million in projected room.

Brooklyn Nets

Projected room: $28.7 million

Who returns: Allen Crabbe, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Dzanan Musa, Rodions Kurucs, Shabazz Napier (contract guaranteed), Treveon Graham (contract guaranteed), D'Angelo Russell (free-agent hold), first-rounder (own) and first-rounder (from Denver)

Who may be gone: DeMarre Carroll, Kenneth Faried, Jared Dudley, Ed Davis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Theo Pinson and Alan Williams

Other charges: Deron Williams ($5.4 million)

If the Nets are in play for a max player, expect general manager Sean Marks to have trade suitors lined up when it comes to Crabbe's $18.5 million contract. Trading Crabbe (with the Denver first-rounder attached) would increase Brooklyn's cap space to $47.3 million -- good enough for a max player with $15 million left over.

Brooklyn could also stretch the Crabbe contract over three seasons ($6.16 million annual cap hit) and still have $40 million in room.

To create room for two max players, the Nets would need to renounce the rights to Russell and trade Crabbe.

Chicago Bulls

Projected room: $18.6 million

Who returns: Otto Porter Jr., Zach LaVine, Cristiano Felicio, Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine, Chandler Hutchison, Antonio Blakeney, Shaquille Harrison, Walter Lemon Jr., Wayne Selden (free-agent hold), Ryan Arcidiacono (free-agent hold) and first-rounder (own)

Who may be gone: Robin Lopez, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Brandon Sampson, JaKarr Sampson and Rawle Alkins

There is nothing wrong with the approach the Bulls took at the trade deadline when they sacrificed max cap space to acquire Porter. Despite losing room, the Bulls have a 25-year-old wing under contract for the next three seasons.

Unlike Atlanta, Chicago should be active with its $19 million in room -- a number that could increase to $22.3 million if Selden's and Arcidiacono's contracts are renounced.

Expect the Bulls to focus on two priorities: finding a starting point guard (if they don't draft one) and adding depth off the bench at shooting guard and small forward.

 

Dallas Mavericks

Projected room: $38.2 million

Who returns: Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson, Ryan Broekhoff, Dorian Finney-Smith (restricted hold), Maxi Kleber (restricted hold), Kristaps Porzingis (restricted hold), Tim Hardaway Jr., Courtney Lee and Justin Jackson

Who may be gone: Devin Harris, Trey Burke, Salah Mejri, Dwight Powell and J.J. Barea

Other charges: Incomplete roster charge ($2.7 million)

With two franchise cornerstones, Doncic and Porzingis, Dallas can chase a point guard such as Irving or Walker by using max space while retaining its key reserves.

For Dallas to create additional room, Lee's $12.8 million contract would need to be stretched or traded to a team that has space.

Remember, this is a team that traded two future first-round picks for Porzingis in February -- a move that signaled Dallas will be aggressive in building a contender.



Indiana Pacers

Projected room: $42 million

Who returns: Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner, Doug McDermott, Domantas Sabonis, T.J. Leaf, Aaron Holiday, Alize Johnson (contract guaranteed), Edmond Sumner (contract guaranteed) and first-rounder (own)

Who may be gone: Thaddeus Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Kyle O'Quinn and Wesley Matthews

Other charges: Incomplete roster charge ($2.7 million) and Monta Ellis ($2.2 million)

This 48-win Pacers team could turn over a majority of its roster or return the exact same group. Indiana can get well past max-level room by renouncing all of its free agents, though the team would need to replace three starters in that scenario (Collison, Young and Bogdanovic).

The Pacers could keep Bogdanovic's $13.6 million cap hold and still have $30 million in room available to improve the roster.

LA Clippers

Projected room: $42.5 million

Who returns: Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jerome Robinson, Tyrone Wallace, Sindarius Thornwell (contract guaranteed), Landry Shamet, Patrick Beverley, Ivica Zubac (free-agent hold), Rodney McGruder (free-agent hold) and first-rounder

Who may be gone: Wilson Chandler, Garrett Temple, JaMychal Green, Johnathan Motley and Angel Delgado

Other charges: Incomplete roster charge ($3.6 million)

The Clippers head into the offseason chasing the best free agents on the market.

With more than $40 million in room, LA has the flexibility to add a player such as Leonard or Durant and still bring back 11 players from a team that won 48 games.

For the Clippers to sign two max players, Gallinari would need to be traded to a team with space.

Los Angeles Lakers

Projected room: $32.5 million

Who returns: LeBron James, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart, Moritz Wagner, Isaac Bonga and first-rounder (own)

Who may be gone: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, JaVale McGee, Tyson Chandler, Mike Muscala and Jemerrio Jones (waived)

Other charges: Incomplete roster charge ($3.6 million) and Luol Deng ($5 million)

Moving up seven slots the night of the lottery cost the Lakers $3 million in room; the team is now $200,000 short of being able to sign a player such as Jimmy Butler to a max salary. Expect Bonga, a former second-round pick, to be traded if a player like Butler signals he wants to come to L.A.

When it comes to a potential trade for Anthony Davis, there is a specific timeline for the Lakers to follow to be able to also add a max free agent. They would first need to use cap space on a free agent and then wait until Aug. 1 to send out a package for Davis that includes the No. 4 pick, Ingram, Ball and future draft assets. The first-round pick this season has no monetary value when it comes to a trade until a contract is signed. L.A. will need that extra salary to make a Davis trade work, but the contract isn't officially tradable until 30 days after signing.

 

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New Orleans Pelicans​

Projected room: $14.9 million

Who returns: Anthony Davis (for now), Jrue Holiday, Solomon Hill, E'Twaun Moore, Frank Jackson, Jahlil Okafor (partial guaranteed), Christian Wood (non-guaranteed), Kenrich Williams (non-guaranteed), Davis Bertans (non-guaranteed) and first-rounder (own)

Who may be gone: Julius Randle (opt out), Elfrid Payton, Darius Miller, Cheick Diallo, Ian Clark, Stanley Johnson and Trevon Bluiett

Currently projected with $14.9 million in room if Randle opts out of his contract, New Orleans could see that number increase to $22.5 million if Hill is waived and his contract is stretched.

There is also the uncertainty surrounding Davis. Because Davis earns $27 million, it's likely that the Pelicans will take back less money in a trade, creating a little extra space.
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a little extra space.

New York Knicks

Projected room: $72.5 million

Who returns: Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, Damyean Dotson and first-rounder (own)

Who may be gone: Lance Thomas (waived), Emmanuel Mudiay, DeAndre Jordan, Mario Hezonja, Luke Kornet, Noah Vonleh, John Jenkins (option declined), Henry Ellenson (option declined), Billy Garrett (option declined), Isaiah Hicks and Allonzo Trier (option declined)

Other charges: Incomplete roster charge ($5.4 million) and Joakim Noah ($6.4 million)

Expect the Knicks to take an all-or-nothing approach in free agency. Plan A is to use the $72.5 million in room to target a combination of Durant, Irving and Leonard. If they miss out on all three targets, expect the Knicks' front office to use the space to take on bad contracts with draft assets attached.

Remember, even if cap space isn't used, teams have to spend 90 percent of the $109 million salary cap. For New York that would mean spending an additional $60 million this summer.

What happens at the start of free agency will also dictate talks when it comes to Davis trades. In order to use that double max slot, New York would need to wait 30 days after the No. 3 pick in the draft is signed to make a trade for Davis and team him up with two star free agents.

Sacramento Kings

Projected room: $21.3 million

Who returns: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Marvin Bagley III, Nemanja Bjelica, De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Harry Giles, Yogi Ferrell (contract guaranteed), Frank Mason, Harrison Barnes (player option), Caleb Swanigan and Willie Cauley-Stein (free-agent hold)

Who may be gone: Kosta Koufos, Corey Brewer, Alec Burks and BJ Johnson (waived)

Other charges: Matt Barnes ($2.1 million) and incomplete roster charge ($1.8 million)

Harrison Barnes is expected to opt into his $25.1 million contract for next season. Once he does, Sacramento will enter July with $21.3 million in room.

From there, the Kings are a bit of a wild card. If they renounce the rights to Cauley-Stein, a restricted free agent, they can get up to $35.4 million -- enough for a max player.

The wild-card teams
Denver Nuggets

There is a significant cost for the Nuggets to join the list of teams with cap space. Currently over the cap, Denver would need to decline Paul Millsap's $30.4 million team option and renounce Trey Lyles.

Denver would have $17 million in room but a void at power forward.

Milwaukee Bucks

Moving the contracts of John Henson and Matthew Dellavedova gave the Bucks the financial flexibility to either retain their own free agents -- Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez -- or look elsewhere.

But with a team in the Eastern Conference finals, retaining all three core pieces should be the priority for the front office, despite the tease of creating up to $30 million in room.

Orlando Magic

If the Magic move onto the list of teams with cap space, it will come at the cost of Nikola Vucevic. Because the All-Star has a $19.1 million cap hold, Orlando is operating over the cap despite having $83 million in guaranteed contracts.

If Vucevic and Terrence Ross leave in free agency, Orlando will have $17 million in room.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers took advantage of the free-agent market early when they acquired Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris during the season. Because those players combine for $52.8 million in free-agent holds, Philadelphia is operating over the cap.

For the 76ers to be active in free agency, it would come at the cost of Butler or Harris. Not bringing back Butler leaves Philadelphia with $23.8 in room, including JJ Redick's $15.6 million cap hold.

Phoenix Suns

There is too much uncertainty to put the Suns on the list of teams with cap space. Because of Kelly Oubre Jr.'s $9.6 million free-agent hold, Phoenix is considered over the cap when you combine the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions.

The Suns could have between $17 million and $30 million by renouncing Oubre, trading Josh Jackson or moving Tyler Johnson with the future first-rounder from the Bucks attached.

San Antonio Spurs

Keep an eye on the Spurs when it comes to DeMar DeRozan's $27.7 million contract.


In the last year of his contract (player option for 2020-21), DeRozan could be a target for a team like the Lakers if they strike out in free agency. The Spurs could consider making a deal if they think there's a possibility of losing DeRozan for nothing in 2020 free agency.

Trading DeRozan would open up $20 million in room, good enough to sign a player like the Pacers' Bogdanovic and re-sign Rudy Gay.

 

Utah Jazz

The Jazz have built their roster through the draft and trades, with free agency as a distant third option. That is why the scenario of Utah becoming a player in the free-agent chase should be met with hesitancy.

The team could create north of $35 million in room, but that would come at the expense of Derrick Favors, Kyle Korver and Ricky Rubio.
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