[ESPN] Top 15 Free Agents for 2010

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LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh headline what on paper is the greatest free-agent class ever. And while in most years, big free agents don't change teams, this year could be different.
Why? LeBron's Cavs have, once again, come up short in the playoffs. Wade's Heat team hasn't gotten past the first round since it won the title in 2006. Bosh's Raptors failed to make the playoffs again this year. So if they want to win a title, they may have to look elsewhere, or combine forces.

Given the number of high-profile teams -- including the Knicks, Heat, Bulls and soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets -- that can spend this summer, things have already become very interesting as speculation runs rampant.

The plot lines are both dramatic and in many ways, intertwined. Can Cleveland hold on to its local star? Can the Knicks score a superstar or two in an effort to bring some honor back to the Garden? Can the Nets, now led by a Russian billionaire, remake the team into a premier destination? Will friends like James, Wade and Bosh decide to hook up together to create an NBA dream team?

Only time will tell. Until then, here's our latest sneak peek at who could be available in 2010:

Group I: The "big 10" ETO or player option candidates
Note: This group of players can hit the open market with no strings attached. Some have an "early termination option" or a "player option" -- those players can choose to become unrestricted free agents this summer. This list includes only those players most likely to enter free agency.

Key: player option (PO) | early termination option (ETO) | team option (TO)


James
1. LeBron James, Cavaliers (PO)
The buzz surrounding LeBron's potential foray into free agency has been the loudest in NBA history, and the consensus continues to be remarkably fluid. One day the word -- from LeBron's camp and other parties -- is that he's staying in Cleveland. The next day, we hear that the Knicks, Bulls and other teams might be in play.

Of course, the first question to address is whether he would actually leave the Cavaliers. LeBron is an Ohio product and has shown a special loyalty to Akron and the surrounding area. It won't be easy for him to defect and leave the Cleveland sports scene in shambles.

Recently a source close to LeBron told me that he was struggling with the idea of abandoning his hometown and most likely would stay because of, if nothing else, loyalty. And a week ago, that seemed to be the consensus. But the events of this week may have changed the equation.

The Cavs underperformed again in the playoffs -- with LeBron taking much of the blame despite the fact his supporting cast in Cleveland is appreciably weaker than that of the other title contenders. A combo of Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison and Anderson Varejao just isn't going to cut it, as we can now see.

POTENTIAL 2011 FREE AGENTS
• Yao Ming, C, Rockets
• Tony Parker, PG, Spurs
• Tim Duncan, C, Spurs
• Caron Butler, G/F, Mavs
• David West, F, Hornets
• T.J. Ford, PG, Pacers
• Richard Jefferson, F, Spurs
• Tayshaun Prince, F, Pistons
• Jason Richardson, SG, Suns
• Andrei Kirilenko, F, Jazz
• Kenyon Martin, PF, Nuggets
• Troy Murphy, PF, Pacers
• Mike Dunleavy, F, Pacers
• Nick Collison, F, Thunder
• Samuel Dalembert, C, Sixers
• Michael Redd, SG, Bucks

Tuesday's Game 5 boos from Cavs fans -- while directed at the whole team and not just LeBron -- clearly stung and may cause him to rethink the whole question of "hometown loyalty" versus "business decision."

And of course, there are plenty of reasons for him to leave.

Other teams making a run can offer him a bigger market and the chance to play with another superstar or two or at least a younger, more talented supporting cast.

The Knicks have been the most publicized and aggressive potential suitor, clearing salary at a rapid rate to put themselves in position to pay James. But the Knicks' talent depletion may discourage LeBron from signing on -- even if they add a second star, the Knicks might not have enough to contend for a title.

The Nets have more young talent, a chance at the No. 1 pick in the draft and a new owner who promises to spend whatever it takes to bring the team a championship. The team's eventual home of Brooklyn could also be of real appeal to LeBron. But, unless the team lands John Wall in the draft, it isn't clear its future is any brighter than that of the Cavs.

The Heat can offer LeBron a chance to play with Dwyane Wade and a great locale. And don't count out the Clippers, who have a lot of talent and the salary cap room to pay LeBron.

But at the moment, the favorite appears to be the Chicago Bulls. Several NBA GMs told me after the Cavs lost Game 6 on Thursday that they believe James will leave the Cavs for the Bulls, potentially joining up with University of Kentucky coach John Calipari. And if James wants to team up with young talent in a huge market, the Bulls seem to be the best fit.

Last time I wrote a free agent update, I said that if I were a betting man, I'd wager that LeBron ultimately will stay in Cleveland. Now I believe LeBron is going to look elsewhere. His best chance at a title would probably come from Chicago. His best chance at being a "global icon" probably would come from New York. And perhaps the most interesting destination he could choose would be Miami.

I don't think anyone knows what he'll end up deciding, but it should be a lot of fun (unless you're a Cavs fan, that is) watching the process unfold.


Wade
2. Dwyane Wade, Heat (PO)
There hasn't been nearly the hype around Wade's potential departure that there has been for LeBron's. Why? One, most people in the league believe Wade wants to re-sign in Miami. And two, Wade turned 28 in January and has a history of injuries. He's not quite the young franchise cornerstone LeBron is.

But the assumptions that Wade will merely re-up with the Heat may not end up being correct. Sources say Wade is clearly losing patience in Miami. So if Pat Riley is unable to lure a superstar to South Beach to play alongside Wade, the Heat guard may very well leave.

Of course, there will be plenty of other teams interested in Wade this summer. The Bulls, especially, will come courting, with the lure of returning home to Chicago being their strongest pitch. Wade is also a Derrick Rose fan. And with a good supporting cast already established around Rose, the Bulls could make a serous playoff run with Wade in tow.

The Knicks and the Nets will likely also be suitors. If they can't have LeBron, Wade is the next best thing. I'm not sure that Wade would leave for New York, a team with a weak supporting cast, but the Nets could be very intriguing to Wade, especially if they land John Wall.


Bosh
3. Chris Bosh, Raptors (PO)
Bosh has been pegged since last year as the young star free agent most likely to bolt his team this summer. After the Raptors failed to make the playoffs for a second straight season, all signs now point to him leaving. The question is, where will he go?

The Heat might be the most interesting option, as a Bosh-Wade combination sounds very formidable. The Bulls will make a play too if they can't get LeBron or Wade. They have needed a low-post player for a while, and with young players such as Rose and Luol Deng on the squad, Bosh would have a bright future in Chicago.

There are also a couple of dark horses. The Thunder have a great young core, have a need in their frontcourt and aren't that far from Bosh's hometown of Dallas. While Oklahoma City is anything but a big market, the team may give Bosh his best chance at winning a championship. A combination of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Bosh would be awesome.

The Rockets have also shown interest in Bosh, but they would have to work out a sign-and-trade deal to make it happen. The same holds true for teams like the Mavs, Spurs (what about a Tony Parker-for-Bosh swap?) and Pistons.


Stoudemire
4. Amare Stoudemire, Suns (ETO)
When he's healthy, Stoudemire is as good as any other big man in the league. Just 27 years old, he's hyperathletic and a monster on the offensive end. But questions surrounding his knees, an eye injury and his attitude have hurt his stock a bit -- and led to the Suns placing him on the trading block the past couple of years.

But something strange happened at the trade deadline. The Suns held off on an Amare trade and really got rolling, ultimately winning 54 games and earning a spot in the Western Conference finals against the Lakers. The word out of Phoenix is that the chemistry has never been better and, for the first time in a long time, the odds of Amare staying in Phoenix are better than 50 percent. If the Suns can somehow dispatch the Lakers and/or win an NBA title, they'll be even higher.

Should Amare decide to look elsewhere, the Heat showed the most interest in Stoudemire in February. But expect teams like the Bulls and Nets to make a play if their other plans don't work out.


Nowitzki
5. Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks (ETO)
Nowitzki turned 31 in June but still plays like an All-Star. The question is, for how much longer? Dallas is hoping to get a few more seasons out of him, and Mark Cuban sounds confident that Nowitzki will agree to an extension.

But the Mavs don't want to give him the maximum. If another suitor comes calling, it's not inconceivable that Dirk could walk away, just like Steve Nash did when Cuban balked at breaking the bank for him.

Miami and New York might be very interested if they can't land one of the top four. But given the Mavs' commitments to Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd over the next few years, I'd expect them to lock up Dirk, too.

6. Carlos Boozer, Jazz
Boozer had another good season for Utah, but his future there is very much in doubt. The Jazz are paying a lot of money to backup power forward Paul Millsap, and it's doubtful that they can afford to keep Millsap, Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur and Boozer.

PLAYERS UNLIKELY TO OPT OUT
• Paul Pierce, Celtics (ETO)
• Yao Ming, Rockets (ETO)
• T.J. Ford, Pacers (PO)
• Eddy Curry, Knicks (PO)
• Jason Kapono, 76ers (PO)
• Willie Green, Sixers (ETO)
• Michael Redd, Bucks (ETO)
• Richard Jefferson, Spurs (ETO)
• Kenyon Martin, Nuggets (ETO)
• Tyson Chandler, Bobcats (ETO)
• Joel Przybilla, Blazers (ETO)
• Peja Stojakovic, Hornets (ETO)
• Vladimir Radmanovic, Warriors (ETO)
• DeShawn Stevenson, Mavericks (PO)
• Sebastian Telfair, Cavs (PO)


You can expect the Jazz to explore moving Kirilenko or Okur in an attempt to clear more space under the luxury-tax threshold for Boozer. But it's not a given that Boozer wants to return.

He'd like to play in Miami and could wind up there, depending on what LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Amare do. If Miami goes another direction, I'm told the Wizards are a real possibility, as are the Pistons via a sign-and-trade deal.

7. Joe Johnson, Hawks
Johnson's poor playoff performance -- along with some disparaging words directed at Hawks fans -- may have hurt his best chance at a massive payday. General managers had to be watching and asking themselves whether Johnson is going to be worth the money he's going to want -- including the Hawks, who were horrible in the playoffs and may decide it's time to shake things up. (Firing Mike Woodson may be a sign of things to come.)

On the positive side, Johnson can score in a lot of ways and can play both backcourt positions. He turns just 29 in June, so he still has four or five years left in him. Johnson has already shown interest in the Knicks, Heat and Bulls. If one of those teams fails to land one of the players higher on the list, Johnson may luck out despite the negatives.

8. David Lee, Knicks
Lee was a coveted restricted free agent in 2009, but a lack of teams with cap room combined with Lee's restricted status forced him to sign a one-year deal with the Knicks. Lee continues to put up huge numbers in coach Mike D'Antoni's system this season, but will he be able to cash in this summer?

If the Knicks can't land LeBron or Bosh, they'll probably re-sign him. But if New York does strike gold on a big free agent, Lee's probably changing uniforms. The Bulls and Thunder are potential destinations.

9. Shaquille O'Neal, Cavs
In Cleveland, Shaq has had to play second fiddle to LeBron to try to prove he can still win a title. But ultimately the experiment failed. Shaq is clearly slowing down and at times he looked like he hindered more than helped the Cavs. He turned 38 years old in March, and has played more games than any other active player in the league.

Still, there's probably a GM or two willing to offer him millions on a two- or three-year contract.

10. Ray Allen, Celtics
Allen's game continues to slowly decline but he remains one of the best shooters in the league. For sure the Celtics would like to lock him up, but they won't be the only team interested in Allen. He's 34 years old, so I don't expect a long-term deal.

Other notables: John Salmons, Bucks (ETO); Raymond Felton, Bobcats; Channing Frye, Suns (PO); Grant Hill, Suns (PO); Josh Howard, Wizards (TO); Udonis Haslem, Heat; Tracy McGrady, Knicks; Travis Outlaw, Clippers; Al Harrington, Knicks; Mike Miller, Wizards; Nate Robinson, Celtics; Brendan Haywood, Mavs; Luke Ridnour, Bucks; Steve Blake, Clippers; Derek Fisher, Lakers; Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cavs; Jermaine O'Neal, Heat; Brad Miller, Bulls; Larry Hughes, Bobcats; Kyle Korver, Jazz; Darko Milicic, Timberwolves; Drew Gooden, Clippers; Chris Duhon, Knicks; Craig Smith, Clippers; Roger Mason, Spurs; Earl Watson, Pacers; Eddie House, Knicks; Antoine Wright, Raptors; Amir Johnson, Raptors; Raja Bell, Warriors; Bobby Simmons, Nets; Rasual Butler, Clippers; Dorell Wright, Heat; Kwame Brown, Pistons; Joe Alexander, Bulls; Oleksiy Pecherov, Timberwolves; Javaris Crittenton, Wizards; Ian Mahinmi, Spurs; J.R. Giddens, Knicks.

Group II: The restricted free agents
Only six first-rounders from the draft class of 2006 -- Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Andrea Bargnani, Thabo Sefolosha and Renaldo Balkman -- signed contract extensions last summer, leaving a huge number of restricted free agents this summer. As we've seen in recent years, it's very difficult for restricted free agents to move. Don't expect things to change this year, even though there will be more teams with serious cap space.


Gay
1. Rudy Gay, Grizzlies
With so many teams now under the cap, it's pretty much guaranteed that at least one club will make a big run at Gay this summer.

The Grizzlies have been running a bare-bones operation for the past few years, and it's unclear whether owner Michael Heisley is ready to break the bank to match a huge offer for Gay. The 23-year-old swingman is a terrific athlete and an accomplished shooter who can put the ball in the basket, but his game is a bit one-dimensional at the moment.

The Knicks, Nets, Clippers and Wizards have all shown interest.

2. Tyrus Thomas, Bobcats
Thomas had another rocky season, and despite playing better after a midseason trade from Chicago to Charlotte, he remains an enigma. He's terrific one night, then disappears the next. And with a reputation as a locker-room problem, Thomas may struggle to get a long-term deal.

3. Luis Scola, Rockets
Scola proved once again this season to be a legit threat in the paint for the Rockets. He's already 30, so he doesn't have more than one more big contract in him. Given that the Rockets have traded away Carl Landry and used up all of their cap space, I expect they'll re-sign Scola.

4. Ronnie Brewer, Grizzlies
Brewer's numbers aren't sexy, but he's a versatile guard who can defend and get to the basket. If he ever figured out how to shoot a jumper, he could be really good.

The Jazz, in a financial crunch, swapped him to Memphis at the trade deadline for a protected first-round pick in 2011. I don't think the Grizzlies would give up a pick unless they had the intention of re-signing him.

5. Josh Childress, Hawks
Childress went back to Greece for a second straight season after failing to be wowed by an offer from an NBA team. He's been solid there and a number of NBA teams that saw him play in the Euroleague Final Four believe he once again could be a terrific role player in the U.S.

The Hawks still hold his restricted rights, but by now, no one thinks they actually would match an offer for him. Look for a team like the Knicks to try to use some of their cash on Childress if they can't land a star.

Other notables: Randy Foye, Wizards; Kyle Lowry, Rockets; Jordan Farmar, Lakers; J.J. Redick, Magic; Sergio Rodriguez, Knicks; Hilton Armstrong, Rockets ; Adam Morrison, Lakers; Josh Boone, Nets.