ESPN--Stan Van Gundy's coaching options

Here ya go
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Let's call it the beginning of the end.

By now most of you have seen the video, an epic setup in which Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy left star center Dwight Howard to confront his own duplicity.

Howard, as we've learned, has asked management on multiple occasions to fire Van Gundy, even while the franchise center has tried to play Mr. Nice Guy to the public. (Fair question to wonder: How much of this devious behavior has been Howard and how much has been the people around Howard?)

And now that this fact is public, we know how this movie ends. Howard's reputation may take a hit, but superstars have been backstabbing coaches for eons. The only difference here is that Howard is doing it to a coach who has been extremely effective, even while Howard himself has been coasting all season and recently re-halved his non-efforts. Unfortunately for Van Gundy, even fantastic coaches are more easily replaced than superstar centers. If Howard is going to stay in Orlando, we can safely presume Van Gundy won't.

Which gives rise to the obvious question: Then what?

If and when the Magic and Van Gundy decide to part ways, he won't lack for options. In fact, he'll immediately become one of the league's hottest coaching candidates. Van Gundy is one of nine active coaches to take a team to the NBA Finals (if we still consider Phil Jackson active). He has never had a losing season and boasts gaudy career winning percentages of .644 overall and .573 in playoff games. He's had some help, obviously, as Shaquille O'Neal (with the Heat) and Dwight Howard were his two centers, but even this season he's managed to keep the Magic on a winning track despite all the behind-the-scenes issues with Howard.

While Van Gundy may decide to take it easy for a year if he's out of a job, he would have his pick this offseason from several jobs that are either already open or will possibly become open.

So where might he end up? Let's sort through the candidates:

The favorites

ESPN or TNT: If I had to put one leader in the clubhouse, it would be the television networks. Van Gundy is hands-down the best coach interview in the league, delivering humorous, irreverent monologues on a variety of subjects, and his brother Jeff has enjoyed his career in broadcasting so much that he seems in no rush to return to coaching. Additionally, it's been common for high-profile coaches to chill out in the booth for a while and recharge their batteries before returning to the league.


L.A. Clippers: If Van Gundy could stomach working for owner Donald Sterling (word of advice, Stan: Get all your money paid up front), this would be a great gig because Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are the franchise centerpieces. We don't know how long Paul will stick around, but Griffin probably isn't going anywhere after he signs a max extension, and Van Gundy would add the credibility that might persuade both players to stay.

Additionally, he'd fix what most ails them. Van Gundy's teams have always played great defense even when he hasn't had particularly great defensive talent on his roster, so he'd likely repair a struggling Clippers defense that has been their weak link this season.

Vinny Del Negro still has this job, but his contract expires after the season and he has been rumored to be on thin ice. L.A. has won seven of eight to keep the dogs at bay, but he probably needs to win two playoff rounds to get another contract.


Washington: Several pieces are in place that may make this an attractive gig. The Wizards have really suffered in the area of player development the past few years, and they badly need a capable teacher to tighten up all the loose ends in the games of players like John Wall and Jordan Crawford. It's not clear whether Wizards owner Ted Leonsis would pay Van Gundy's going rate, but if he's going to dive right back into coaching, this is the one currently open gig that seems most promising, with Randy Wittman considered just an interim coach.

The possibles


Portland: The Blazers are talking big about using their cap space and draft picks to reload for next season, and they have been willing to spend on coaching candidates in the past -- that's how they lured Nate McMillan from Seattle. Van Gundy's penchant for speaking frankly may not sit well with owner Paul Allen's shadow government in Seattle, however, and in recent years the Blazers have shied away from spending the kind of money that it would take to get Van Gundy to come.

Additionally, the Blazers are without a general manager right now, and timing may get in the way. They appear to be dithering on hiring a permanent GM, and by the time they get one Van Gundy may already have been off the market for a long time.


New York: Here's a really good gig with a team that's willing to spend money and has several good players in their primes, and obviously there's a family connection, as well, since Jeff Van Gundy once coached the Knicks. From Stan's perspective, this one seems really alluring. So why don't I rate it as more likely? I just can't imagine that the team's overlords at MSG will assent to hiring Van Gundy because there's no way he'd put up with the Knicks' secrecy policy and other assorted PR shenanigans.


Charlotte: If the Bobcats win the lottery, Van Gundy would have to be intrigued by the possibility of coaching an Anthony Davis-Bismack Biyombo frontcourt and turning the Bobcats into a defensive monster. Given their financial woes, though, it's unclear whether the Bobcats would meet Van Gundy's asking price. Additionally, he'll likely have chances to take over better teams than this one.

The unlikelies


Philadelphia, Sacramento and Atlanta: All three of these teams have a decent but hardly imposing collection of talent, and more importantly all three have coaches that are under contract for at least one more season. (In Atlanta's case, it's a team option for coach Larry Drew.) And each of the three has questions about whether the team's pockets are deep enough to afford a coach like Van Gundy.

But they all bear mentioning, as I'm not sure any of the three is fully committed to its current head coach. Keeping to his historical calendar, Philly's Doug Collins is in the midst of driving everybody crazy with his nitpicking, and the team's play has slipped noticeably. Sacramento hired Keith Smart as kind of an "interim plus-one" and has already pursued Van Gundy once. And while Drew has done an excellent job with an injury-riddled Hawks team, Atlanta has seemed reluctant to commit to anything long term while the team's sale is pending.


New Jersey/Brooklyn: Two big problems here. First, obviously, Avery Johnson still has the job and may be keeping it, even though the Nets have basically abandoned the idea of playing defense under him. Second, and more problematic, is the Nets' aspiration to be Dwight Howard's next destination, which obviously would take a big hit if they hired Van Gundy.

On to the Harbingers ...


• New York's win over Orlando on Thursday night really hurt Milwaukee's chances of catching the Knicks, but here's another thought: Can Milwaukee catch Philadelphia? The Playoff Odds seem not to think so because they still see Philly as a very good team, but I'm not so sure. The 76ers have been hammered by Washington and Toronto in the past week and have only three home games left. The Sixers take on Orlando on Saturday in the Implosion Bowl (ESPN, 8 p.m. ET) and then visit Boston on a back-to-back. If Philly drops those two, the Bucks could be within a game by the end of the weekend.

While the rest of Philly's schedule includes a ton of patsies -- three games against New Jersey and one each against Cleveland, Detroit and Toronto -- recent events show that no Sixers wins can be taken for granted these days. Additionally, Milwaukee and Philly meet on April 25, and the winner will have the tiebreaker advantage.

It's still an unlikely scenario, but we cannot say it's an impossible one.


• Speaking of unlikely scenarios, the Atlantic Division race has become quite interesting. The Playoff Odds still say Philadelphia is the most likely to prevail at 46.7 percent, followed by Boston at 39.9 percent. I would argue they are far too generous to the Sixers and that Boston should now be the favorite, but let's talk about the really interesting part: New York at 13.4 percent.

New York may be running out of players, and the Knicks face a huge test in a home-and-home series against mighty Chicago this week, but they have risen to fifth in the Power Rankings and are only 2.5 games behind a Boston team that faces an equally daunting closing schedule. The Knicks would need to beat Boston on April 17, which would pull them even in the season series and give them a chance of winning the tiebreaker (beyond that, it's still hazy).

Again, I'd still call it unlikely, but it would be pretty amazing if a Knicks club that looked utterly dead at two different junctures this season rallied all the way to the No. 4 seed.


• Out West, we're down to a 10-team race after Portland and Minnesota effectively eliminated themselves with losses this week. Both clubs would pretty much need to run the table from there.

Which leaves us with Denver, Phoenix, Houston and Utah slugging it out for two playoff spots, and the Playoff Odds have all four between 30 and 70 percent.

What makes this so great is that they keep playing each other down the stretch. Phoenix's win over Utah on Wednesday was the first of several interesting head-to-heads among these four teams, and it continues Friday night when Denver hosts Phoenix.

The highlight comes a bit later in April, when Houston has a four-game stretch that reads Utah-Phoenix-Denver-Denver. Additionally, Phoenix plays Denver, Houston and Utah once each after Friday night.

All these games will effectively count double, especially the ones that affect tiebreakers (which is most of them). Utah has already clinched the tiebreaker with Denver, and Phoenix has already clinched the tiebreaker with Utah. All the others, however, are up for grabs.

For instance, Houston's game against Utah on April 11 also decides the tiebreaker, so that one is particularly huge. And Denver can clinch the tiebreaker with Phoenix by beating the Suns on Friday night.

Finally, one team that is still in pretty good shape is Dallas. Despite the Mavs' recent struggles, they own the tiebreaker against all four potential contenders for the final playoff spots, meaning three teams would have to pass the Mavs in the standings for them to fall into the lottery. The Playoff Odds give that just a 7.8 percent chance of happening.


• And fittingly, given the Spurs' penchant for flying under the radar, we'll mention them all the way at the bottom. Quietly, San Antonio has won nine straight games to catch Oklahoma City in the loss column, and the Spurs own the tiebreaker with the Thunder.

After lying in the weeds all season, San Antonio looks like the best team in the West. And the Spurs have done this with Manu Ginobili hardly playing and with coach Gregg Popovich openly punting games to keep his players rested.

Right now, the Playoff Odds see San Antonio as slightly more likely to grab the top seed, by 57.2 percent to 42.8 percent, but that doesn't account for the fact that the Spurs are likely to effectively tank a couple more games down the stretch to keep everybody rested. No team has played fewer games than San Antonio's 52, and their final 14 are packed like sardines into the final three weeks of the schedule.

The Spurs have four back-to-backs and one back-to-back-to-back remaining -- the middle game of the back-to-back-to-back against the Lakers is one they're likely to punt. (TNT, nationally broadcasting the game, will be thrilled.) Because of that factor, I'd say the Thunder are still the most likely top seed in the Western Conference.

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If there is justice in this world, the team who drafts Anthony Davis will hire SVG. But, I'd rather see JVG get the job.

 

Dear ESPN,

Please cancel #'s Never Lie and all those other dumb shows you have and sign the Van Gundy's to a giant contract to host their own show... PTI style.

Thanks.

 

Houston?

 

Ah ESPNs the bald guy and the p*rn star.

 

Yeah, the Stan and Jeff show would be awesome.