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[ESPN] Rockets Last in Crunch Time Offensive Rating

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by diamondview, Feb 21, 2011.

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diamondview Member

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While we as Rockets fans patiently wait for Morey to deliver us a star or someone that could eventually become a star, thought this article really goes to show the importance of having a legitimate closer. I think Chris Paul may be a long shot but I'm more than ready to see what Morey will do in the next week of so.

As part of digging into advanced statistics to assess Kobe Bryant in crunch time, we looked at how well different teams score at the very end of very close games. And we found something surprising: By a key measure of team performance, the New Orleans Hornets led the pack by a country mile. Over the last five years, in the final 24 seconds of games his team trailed by a point or two, or were tied, the Hornets have scored 102 points on 86 possessions (as of a few weeks ago). That's an offensive rating of more than 118 points per 100 possession. Remember that number. 118. Now, consider that most of the NBA is below 85, and 27 teams are below 100. That's a blowout. Only the Magic and Blazers are even close (at 107 and 104, respectively). The Cavaliers had LeBron James most of that period, and come in ninth, at 96. The Lakers are 14th at 83. The Celtics rank 20th at 78. Steve Nash's Phoenix Suns are way down at 28th on the list, while the Rockets are dead last, with an offensive rating just about half of the Hornets'. It's not the final word in the crunch time debate, by any means. It's a small sample, as these situations are rare -- the Clippers have had just 71 such possessions over the five years, the Celtics top the list with 120. And there is no end of ways to tweak the parameters for different outcomes. But it's evidence something is up with the Hornets. That's not a team that usually enters the crunch time debate, but it should. It was news to Paul, who, upon seeing the list for the first time said, simply, "wow." Some of it is incredibly simple. David Thorpe, for instance, was not surprised by the numbers, and noted that when he saw Paul in crunch time, he saw a player who played incredibly slowly -- as in, when every player was rushed, and some even panicked, Paul was content to do things at his preferred pace, making good reads and sound basketball decisions. And some of Paul's own explanation is that he simply wants to find a good shot for his team. "Why shoot with three people on me if one guy is open?" he says. "If I'm open, I'll shoot it, and if I'm not, I'll pass it." That sounds simple, but things get tricky with egos involved. Paul is a starting All-Star guard and an MVP candidate who has hit some big game-winners. He has been criticized as being too passive in crunch time at times, but maybe his lack of conviction that he is owed the privilege of taking the last shot is a good thing. I asked why his team didn't run a lot of isolations, and his reason was the Hornets don't have that guy: "I haven't really played with a player that's one of those iso guys, where you iso him on the elbow, or the short corner. We do David West like that every now and then. But it usually comes down to pick and roll and different things like that." As a veteran, he says, he's thinking about all the chess pieces: "I know what plays we're going to run. I know what plays other teams are going to run." He also makes it his business to make sure his whole team is motivated, and focused on the right things. "I try to pride myself on closing games out," he says. "Making sure you call the right sets and letting all the guys know, letting everybody know on my team. When it gets down to five minutes, I always yell out 'it's winning time!'"
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#1 diamondview, Feb 21, 2011

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Do you have a link to this, please?

#2 LongTimeFan, Feb 21, 2011
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Whoops sorry about the typo in the thread title. Could someone change "offensively" to offensive? Much thanks.

#3 diamondview, Feb 21, 2011
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Yep! Here you are.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/24990/chris-pauls-crunch-time-mind

#4 diamondview, Feb 21, 2011
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diamondview said:

Yep! Here you are.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/24990/chris-pauls-crunch-time-mind
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Thanks. It was a quick Rockets mention. Here's the easier-to-read version:

And we found something surprising: By a key measure of team performance, the New Orleans Hornets led the pack by a country mile.

Over the last five years, in the final 24 seconds of games his team trailed by a point or two, or were tied, the Hornets have scored 102 points on 86 possessions (as of a few weeks ago). That's an offensive rating of more than 118 points per 100 possession.

Remember that number. 118.

Now, consider that most of the NBA is below 85, and 27 teams are below 100. That's a blowout.

Only the Magic and Blazers are even close (at 107 and 104, respectively). The Cavaliers had LeBron James most of that period, and come in ninth, at 96. The Lakers are 14th at 83. The Celtics rank 20th at 78. Steve Nash's Phoenix Suns are way down at 28th on the list, while the Rockets are dead last, with an offensive rating just about half of the Hornets'.
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#5 LongTimeFan, Feb 21, 2011
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diamondview said:

Whoops sorry about the typo in the thread title. Could someone change "offensively" to offensive? Much thanks.
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no you mean....offense.

#6 brosef, Feb 21, 2011
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who needs a clutch scorer?

/sarcasm

#7 pips, Feb 21, 2011

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pips said:

who needs a clutch scorer?

/sarcasm
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:grin:

"Offense is not the problem!!" Apparently, everything is the problem. Sigh.

#8 LongTimeFan, Feb 21, 2011
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Yeah Henry Abbot was talking about this on the NBA Today podcast.

Just because a player has good crunch time stats doesn't mean the team will.

Sure Martin has good crunch time stats, but it seems like we can never get him the ball in crunch time so he has fewer opportunities.

You have to lay some of the blame on the coaching staff and the play calling.

#9 Commodore, Feb 21, 2011
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I think that has more to do with coach than players. Over the last two seasons, the play calling after a TO at crunch time have been absolutely horrible, on both ends of the floor. Offensively it's almost always ends up with dribble out of the clock then a contested ISO jump shot, either by Lowry or AB. They go away from passing the ball around which get them good offensive ratings early on.

RA need spend more time to design some special plays in those situation.

#10 choujie, Feb 21, 2011
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We miss this guy.

#11 shortfuse3, Feb 21, 2011
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this stat means nothing

#12 Roxdoc, Feb 21, 2011
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what are thread topics that make me say 'duh', alex?

#13 Rocketman95, Feb 21, 2011

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This is why I considered brooks more vital to our success he's the best closer on the team, yet most seem deceived thinking martin is becauseof his efficient stats when the game isn't on the line.

#14 Hball, Feb 21, 2011
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Roxdoc said:

this stat means nothing
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It means a great deal. We simply cannot execute down the stretch. In fact whenever a big basket is needed,we rarely get it done.

#15 saleem, Feb 21, 2011
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Hball said:

This is why I considered brooks more vital to our success he's the best closer on the team, yet most seem deceived thinking martin is becauseof his efficient stats when the game isn't on the line.
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Most people are aware of this. Kevin can't create his shot.

#16 saleem, Feb 21, 2011
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SamFisher provided a good critique of our crunch time playcalling a couple years back in this thread. He even diagrammed our money play:

SamFisher said:

I snuck a peek at Rick's clipboard, this is a zoomed-in screen cap from tonights game:

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#17 durvasa, Feb 21, 2011
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I don't think there's a single person on this board that thinks Martin is the Rockets best "closer."

Could he be? Who knows... but he struggles to create his own shot and often defers to other people in those types of situations.

#18 UTAllTheWay, Feb 21, 2011

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saleem said:

It means a great deal. We simply cannot execute down the stretch. In fact whenever a big basket is needed,we rarely get it done.
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saleem, I agree with your statement that the rockets execute poorly down the stretch, however, this stat has nothing to do with clutch. It is a measure of offensive efficiency at best. However, it is poor reflection of offensive efficiency. Look at the suns. They play fast pace offense, so their numbers look poor.

I agree with y'all that the rockets are poor down the stretch but this stat is useless,

#19 Roxdoc, Feb 21, 2011
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#20 pge71188, Feb 21, 2011

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