2009-10 Recap When it comes to the Rockets, we know everything we need to about the strength of the supporting cast. Now they just need a leading man to step up. The Rockets made an impression with a gritty crew that won 42 games despite losing star center Yao Ming for the entire season. Between Yao and Tracy McGrady, who never played a game before being traded to New York, Houston had $40 million in salary on the sideline last season. With $30 million worth of healthy players, the Rockets managed to post a winning record. HOLLINGER'S '09-10 STATS W-L: 42-40 (Pythagorean W-L: 40-42) Offensive Efficiency: 104.6 (18th) Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (17th) Pace Factor: 96.6 (6th) Highest PER: Luis Scola (17.22) More impressively, Houston pulled this off even though its main offseason acquisition, free-agent small forward Trevor Ariza, failed to deliver. Faced with increased offensive responsibility in the wake of Yao's absence, Ariza responded mostly by forcing ill-chosen shots, shooting 39.4 percent and earning a trade to New Orleans after the season. The rest of the offense exceeded all expectations, nearly topping the performance of the Yao-led squad of a year earlier. Point guard Aaron Brooks won the league's Most Improved Player Award after bumping his scoring average to 19.6, while power forward Carl Landry delivered a monstrous half-season off the bench before going to Sacramento in a deft midseason trade. Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry also submitted their best pro seasons, Chuck Hayes showed drastic improvement as a makeshift starting center, and second-round draft pick Chase Budinger proved a steal. Houston's defense also remained decent despite a shocking lack of height in the frontcourt. Scola and Landry, both generously listed at 6-foot-9, were what had to pass for height next to the 6-6 Hayes. The only genuinely tall player, 7-footer David Andersen, was pretty much terrified of physical contact and discarded to the Raptors after the season. The height situation will change dramatically this season. Not only is Yao expected back in the lineup, but the Rockets drafted 6-9 bruiser Patrick Patterson, dealt for 6-10 Jordan Hill and 6-11 Jared Jeffries at the trade deadline, and signed 7-footer Brad Miller over the summer. They may have other limitations this season, but they're no longer the league's midgets. One hopes, however, that Houston can retain one skill from last season's overachieving bunch: a passion for drawing offensive fouls. Houston led the league in drawing charges by a wide margin, with more than three a game (see chart). Lowry was third in the league and Hayes, Scola and Shane Battier all finished in the league's top 15. Jeffries, while worthless in most other respects, led the league with 62, although only 18 of them came with the Rockets. 2009-10: Most Off. Fouls Drawn Team Off. Fouls Houston 252 Milwaukee 222 Portland 193 Golden State 190 Indiana 185 New York 185 League average 151.4 Source: Hoopdata.com However, the Rockets had no choice but to try getting run over, because they were so vertically challenged. Not only were they short -- most of them couldn't jump, either. As a result, the Rockets were 27th in shot-blocking and 23rd in opponent 2-point field goal percentage. The defining moment, perhaps, came in Atlanta when five Rockets looked on helplessly as the Hawks' Josh Smith jumped over the rim for a game-winning tip-in -- a ball no Houston player had a prayer of reaching. The revamped frontcourt, though not terribly athletic, should help alleviate that problem. Another big trade also should help -- the February deal with Sacramento for Kevin Martin. It cost them Landry, but the deal gave the Rockets a high-efficiency perimeter scorer who should punish defenses for doubling Yao. Additionally, the Rockets turned this trade further in their favor by making it a three-way deal with the Knicks. Houston walked away with a solid frontcourt prospect in Hill, a first-rounder from New York in 2012 (top-5 protected), and the right to swap picks with New York in 2011. In the best-case scenario, Houston will enjoy three lottery picks (including Hill), all for the burden of taking on Jeffries' contract. None of that will matter, however, if Yao doesn't come back as the Yao of old, or at least a reasonable facsimile. The Rockets will watch his minutes carefully, limiting him to 24 a game to start the season and likely resting him in back-to-backs. But he's still going to be 7-6 when he returns, so he's likely to remain extremely effective for as long as he stays on the court. Should he remain healthy, last season's solid play sans Yao portends very well for Houston's future. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Offseason Moves Drafted Patrick Patterson. Houston chose a relatively safe option in the middle of the first round, adding some needed muscle inside with Patterson. He fits the general profile that Houston has targeted in the past -- he's a smart guy who defends -- and is likely to be Scola's primary backup at the 4. The Rockets had no second-round pick and, after purchasing three a year earlier, didn't buy any. Matched Cleveland's offer sheet to Kyle Lowry for four years, $24 million. The fourth year on this deal isn't guaranteed, but it's still expensive for a backup point guard. However, Lowry is far more effective than most backup point guards, so keeping him in Houston made a lot of sense. Signed Luis Scola for five years, $47 million. This is the classic conundrum with being over the cap and having a free agent: Overpaying makes sense because you can't replace him. Scola shouldn't be getting this kind of contract at age 30 (although Year 5 is only partially guaranteed), but with an overheated free-agent market, the Rockets had to shell out or lose him entirely. Houston's cap situation is otherwise in good enough shape that it could afford to take the plunge here. Signed Brad Miller for three years, $15 million. Miller has a history with Rockets coach Rick Adelman and is familiar with the Rockets' system, but I wasn't crazy about this deal. Miller really struggled last season and at 35 doesn't hold a ton of promise going forward. The third year is partially guaranteed, but this was still a risk. It does, however, fit in the larger program of adding size to last season's lilliputian frontcourt. Traded David Andersen and cash to Toronto for a conditional second-round pick. Houston basically paid the Raptors to take Andersen off their hands; the conditions on the draft pick are so tight that they'll never actually receive it. Traded Trevor Ariza to New Orleans, received Courtney Lee from New Jersey in four-team deal. This was clever cap management by the Rockets on multiple fronts. First, they were able to generate a $6.5 million cap exception by taking Lee into the exception from the Andersen deal. Second, it should enable Houston to slide under the luxury tax at the trade deadline by paying another team to take on the remainder of Jeffries' contract. Finally, it sets up the Rockets for a strong fallback position if Yao falters this season, because they should be far enough under the cap to re-sign Brooks as a restricted free agent and still add another player. They did this while giving up very little on the court. Ariza is probably a better player than Lee, but it's not a huge difference, and adding Lee lets Shane Battier go back to playing his natural small forward spot. Lee also is a better outside shooter, which is important for the inside-outside style Houston wants to play; we all saw way too much of Ariza's perimeter game a year ago. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Biggest Strength: Inside-Out Offense Look at Houston's lineup right now and you'll see two kinds of players: They have two guys who can post up (Yao and Scola) who will be the focal points of the offense, and everybody else will spot up on the perimeter. Of the likely rotation players, all of them except Lowry can hit open jump shots. This has long been the plan, but rarely has Houston had so many weapons. Brooks has emerged as one of the best young guards in the league and led the NBA in 3s last season. Martin is a devastating long-range shooter who made 41.5 percent and 40.2 percent from downtown in the two years before last season's slump. Lee (36.9 percent career), Battier (38.5 percent) and Budinger (36.9 percent) all are solid 3-point threats too. The frontcourt has even more shooting capability. Yao and Miller are two of the best shooting big men in basketball. Scola, Patterson and Hill can knock down open 15-footers, permitting them to space the floor when they're not in the paint. Hayes, who is likely to be a deep reserve this year, is the one exception in the frontcourt. As a result, Houston should improve on last year's 3-point performance, when they had a quantity-over-quality approach -- the Rockets achieved fourth in frequency but 16th in accuracy. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Biggest Weakness: Speed This seems odd at first glance, because Brooks and Lowry are two of the fastest players in the league. The rest of the team? Not so much. Yao was one of the league's slowest players even before the foot injury and may come back slower; however, he still might be able to outrun Miller. Scola, Battier, Hayes and Patterson won't win any track meets either, leaving the Rockets with arguably the league's slowest frontcourt. Hill is the only one with decent speed. That can be a problem in more than transition situations -- the lack of mobility among the centers in particular means they will face constant attack from opponent pick-and-rolls. It also limits the Rockets' ability to play up-tempo around Brooks and Lowry, something they did more often a year ago. The perimeter players aren't exactly speed demons, either. Martin runs like he's trying to balance a bucket of water on his head, while Battier and Lee are almost entirely half-court players. Only Budinger and little-used Taylor are at their best in the open floor. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Outlook Well, we know what the floor is. Houston won 42 games without Yao a season ago, so it's hard to imagine the Rockets finishing much south of .500 regardless of how poorly his comeback goes. It's the upper limit that's harder to define. Houston is among the deepest teams in basketball, and it has assembled pieces that fit together very well. Additionally, it's shown the willingness to use organizational resources (like cash, for instance) to make deals, and that could play heavily in its favor at the trade deadline. However, the question I asked at the top is the big one. Houston has plenty of willing passengers, but it needs somebody to drive the bus. The two guys who can do it are Yao and Martin, but both come with question marks. Martin can certainly stroke it, but he's also missed 88 games over the past three years and lost his shooting stroke a year ago. My projection is that he'll be a pretty good player this season … but that's all. If he can rehash his monstrous 2007-08 efficiency -- 26.0 points per 40 minutes with a 61.8 TS percentage -- then the Rockets become a much more potent offensive team. And if he actually guards somebody, they'll be more effective defensively than I've projected, too. As for Yao, his size and shooting ability should allow him to score at a high rate even if he needs a walker to change ends. However, his availability to play is a greater question. He missed 91 games in the four seasons preceding the last one, and he's a good bet to miss 15-20 more this year. Additionally, the Rockets plan to limit him to 24 minutes a game, muting his impact even when he is healthy. The best-case scenario then is a tantalizing one: an All-Star season from Martin and an all-league-caliber one, albeit in limited minutes, from Yao. I'm not banking on it, but it's possible, and if it happens Houston could finish as high as second in the West. More likely, however, both players will spend some time on the shelf and perform at or near their most recent performance levels. In that scenario, the Rockets will be a good team … just not anything more. Prediction: 46-36, 3rd in Southwest Division, T-7th in Western Conference
These poorly researched ESPN stories drive me up the wall. How hard is it to check Basketball Reference and see that T-Mac played played in six games with the Rockets before being traded last season?
Yeah, that part was stupid too. Scola may not be incredibly fast, but his conditioning is impeccable, and he's great in the open court as a result. Martin is also a bigger threat in the full court game than they are giving him credit for. The starting five probably won't run much, but an up-tempo unit featuring Lowry, Martin, Budinger, Scola, and Hill could be a devastating change of pace.
I know it's ESPN, but I think they speak a lot of truth here. But at the end of the day, it's all talk, just have to wait and see how things play out.
I like this quote, "David Andersen, was pretty much terrified of physical contact." He is TERRIFIEDDDDDDDDDDD...with eyes bulgingggggggg
So much better then most of the other articles or assessments given to the rockets. This was a good researched educated assesment although I think he should have given us a couple more wins knowing that we replaced brad Miller with chuck even when Yao is not playing. Even then it's respectible because him saying if Yao and Martin can play there best then we can be as high as the second seed. Anyways it's better to be low profile with less expectations and succeed then to have high expectations and fail. Good read!!
Hill's speed for a big man is much more than just "decent'. Also, while Scola isn't a track star, he sure does know how to get up and down the court pretty darn well.
Guess he didn't see Patterson's combine numbers. Patterson had the 2nd best agility time and one of the faster sprint times for a PF on DX. I know you can't completely go off on those numbers but I wouldn't put him as slow. I'd even give him the nod over Hill in that department.
The analysis of the article was fine. A few places to nitpick but overall he states that the Rockets are now better at shooting, have more size inside, and will be better defensively. The odd part is putting all of that together and saying it will only lead to 4 more wins. Without Lowry and Ariza missing a few games right when they traded for Martin, they could have won 46 games last year.
He missed a lot of analysis, but his ultimate projection was spot on. It doesn't take an expert to tell you that this season hinges on how long, and how well Yao plays. If Yao is unable to play, or incapable of playing well (and given his history this seems more likely than not) this will be a mediocre team, like it was last year. They might be able to win 50 games, but no playoff damage. If Yao can return to his form, even in limited minutes, and if Martin blends in, this team could be great, championship great. But i'm hoping for this, not really expecting it.
Some of you guys need to relax. It was a good article by John Hollinger who has always supported the Rockets and DM. Did he miss a few things? Yes, but it's been one of the better articles we've seen out there. But the overall truth, which he stated in his article, is we don't know how good this team can be. We can be any where from 8-2 seeding wise. Yao is a big question mark still and we still don't have enough bigs to compete against the Lakers. He also said we still don't have an alpha dog which I would agree. Can Brooks and Martin be those guys? I don't see it but I hope they can prove me wrong. Either way... The article was spot on in most areas.
