[ESPN Insider]- Western Conference Seeding Breakdown

Updated: April 14, 2005, 2:22 PM ET

A Spurs-Nuggets first round showdown?
Insider
Ford
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Archive

The NBA season has boiled down to this: one week to determine a season, the fate of several coaches, the playoff aspirations of thousands of fans and the race for the coveted NBA Championship.

Out West, seven of the top eight spots are now taken, with the Grizzlies just one game away from nabbing the final playoff spot.

In addition, in the race to make the playoffs, several teams are working frantically to position themselves to have some staying power in the postseason, but very little is settled at this point. With the exception of the Mavericks, who are locked into the fourth spot, everything is up for grabs.

Insider breaks down the playoff race as we head into the home stretch. Click here for the Eastern Conference breakdown.

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF WATCH

1. Phoenix Suns
Current record: 59-19
Projected record: 62-20
Skinny: The Suns are sprinting to the finish line in an effort to grab the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Despite the fact that Tim Duncan's been out the past few two weeks, the Suns haven't been able to distance themselves from the Spurs as much as they had hoped. However, that should come over the last week of the season. The Suns play the Clippers, Kings and Nuggets at home and then end the season in Sacramento. While that's not an easy schedule by any means, the Suns should be able to hold their own at home and lock up the No. 1 seed in the West. There's a lot to play for here besides home-court advantage, considering there is a major difference between this year's No. 7 seed (the red-hot Nuggets) and the No. 8 seed (the Grizzlies). Because the Spurs own the tiebreaker between the teams, the Suns' magic number is three.

2. San Antonio Spurs
Current record: 58-21
Projected record: 60-22
Skinny: The Spurs have been a very respectable 8-4 without Duncan this last month. Ironically, they blew an easy game against the Jazz in Duncan's first game back on Wednesday. The team has a tough schedule the last week of the season, with a home game against the Grizzlies followed by away games against the Grizzlies and Timberwolves – both of whom are in a dogfight for the No. 8 seed. If the Spurs win all three games, they might be able to catch the Suns for the No. 1 seed, but right now that's a pretty big longshot. Given an impending first-round matchup with the Nuggets, winners of 25 of their last 27, you can bet the Spurs will do everything they can to win those last three games.

3. Seattle SuperSonics
Current record: 50-28
Projected record: 51-31
Skinny: One more victory. That's all Sonics fans are hoping for as they head into the last week of the season. In the midst of a six-game free fall, the Sonics have been one win away from the Northwest Division title for two straight weeks. With the Nuggets playing like they're unbeatable, the division appears to be far from locked up. Thank goodness for the New Orleans Hornets. The Sonics play the Hornets at home on Friday – their last home game of the year and probably their last shot of the season at actually winning. After that game, the Sonics end the season on a three-game road trip against the Timberwolves, Mavericks and Rockets. The good news for Sonics fans is that the team is finally getting healthy and had a full complement of players (with the exception of Vladimir Radmanovic) on Wednesday. The bad news is that their free fall might cost them home-court advantage in the first round. If the Sonics finish tied with the Rockets at the end of the season, the Rockets would get home-court advantage because they own a tiebreaker. The seeds don't really matter. If the Sonics face the Kings in the first round, they own the tiebreaker and would begin the series in Seattle.

4. Dallas Mavericks
Current record: 54-24
Projected record: 56-26
Skinny: The Mavs are the only team in the West locked into their playoff seed. Regardless of what happens above or below them, they're the fourth seed in the West.

5. Houston Rockets
Current record: 48-31
Projected record: 51-31
Skinny: The Rockets have run hot and cold all season. But they've been red hot as the season winds down. The team has won four straight and heads into the last week with three straight home games against the Nuggets, Clippers and Sonics. While none of those games will be easy, the Rockets should be able to run the gamut and lock up a first-round date with Dallas. The fact that they own the tiebreaker with the Sonics makes the odds even better that they finish fifth in the West.

6. Sacramento Kings
Current record: 48-30
Projected record: 50-32
Skinny: The Kings finish the season with a brutal schedule. Fitting, given their brutal, injury-filled season. They start on the road against the Lakers, Suns and Jazz, before returning to Arco Arena to play the Suns in the last game of the season. Given a tiebreaker situation with Houston, it's going to be awfully tough to hold on to the fifth seed in the West. The sixth seed is fine with the Kings. At this point, they'd prefer to play the Sonics than the Mavs in the first round. But can they avoid slipping all they way to the seventh seed? The Nuggets are surging right now and are just one game behind the Kings. Luckily for the Kings, the Nuggets' schedule isn't easy, either, and the Kings own the tiebreaker if the two teams finish tied.

7. Denver Nuggets
Current record: 47-31
Projected record: 49-33
Skinny: The Nuggets are the hottest team in the West right now, winners of 23 of their last 25. Head coach George Karl has publicly pined for that sixth seed and a chance to exact revenge on his former team, the Sonics. In fact, there's a mathematical possibility that the Nuggets could even catch the Sonics for the third seed in the West. But it's going to be a difficult road to get to either position. The Nuggets' schedule over the last week isn't easy, with home games against the Grizzlies and Blazers and road games against the Rockets and Suns. If they finish in a tie with Sacramento, the Kings own the tiebreaker, meaning that the Nuggets are probably going to have to finish 4-0 (not impossible given their hot streak at the moment) to secure the sixth seed. However, if they accomplish that feat, it's not out of the realm of possibility that they leapfrog both Sacramento and Houston to nab the fifth seed. If the Nuggets beat the Rockets this weekend, they'll own the tiebreaker over Houston. If the Nuggets do stay at seventh, expect a colossal showdown with the Spurs in the first round. The Nuggets have the firepower to beat them and send the Western Conference playoff picture into chaos.

8. Memphis Grizzlies
Current record: 44-34
Projected record: 45-37
Skinny: The Grizzlies have now blown two straight chances to lock up the final playoff spot in the West and will likely sweat it out the rest of the way. They need either one more victory or one more loss by Minnesota to get there. It's tougher than it sounds. The Grizzlies' schedule is brutal, with road games against the Nuggets and Spurs and home games against the Spurs and Mavericks. The chances of their going 0-4 and the Wolves' ending the season 4-0 are, mathematically, around 1 percent. But weirder things have happened.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves
Current record: 41-37
Projected record: 45-37
Skinny: Talk about waiting until the last minute. The Wolves have underachieved all year and are still in this playoff race. In fact, had they not blown a road game against the worst team in the league – the Hawks – last week, they might be feeling fairly confident right now. As it stands, the Wolves have two more road games, against the Jazz and Hornets, and home games against the Sonics and Spurs. They are all winnable, especially if the Spurs have nothing to play for on the last night of the season. Of course, Minnesota should never have been in this position, period.