[ESPN Insider] Top 10 2010 Free Agents

FishBulb913 · Aug 3, 2009

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=2010FreeAgents-090803

There's more to the article, but my copy and paste was getting a bit lengthy, this is the fun part though.

Looking ahead: Free-agent class of 2010 by Chad Ford

This summer has been a tough one for a lot of free agents. Sure, a few free agents cashed in: Ben Gordon, Hedo Turkoglu and Anderson Varejao got deals worth more than $50 million. But that pales in comparison to what a number of top free agents got last season.

Also during the summer, only one player from the 2006 NBA draft who is eligible for an extension -- Andrea Bargnani -- has received any love from his team. The rest of the 2006 first-round picks, including stalwarts like Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo, are still trying to work out deals with their respective teams.

The rest of the summer's free-agent class?

Only a handful have found anything near the money that free agents in years past got on the open market. And a number of prospects, including David Lee of the Knicks and Raymond Felton of the Bobcats, are still waiting for deals.

Once again, the main culprit was the dreaded NBA salary cap. Only a few teams -- the Pistons, Blazers, Grizzlies and Thunder -- really had the money to pick up a major free agent from another team. One of those teams, Oklahoma City, decided not to spend much of its money.

But the cap isn't the only reason, as the NBA is suffering from the worldwide financial crisis, too. While a few teams, such as the Magic, Cavs and Spurs, have gone all out, a large number of teams have showed major financial restraint. With the NBA salary cap and luxury tax threshold projected to drop 5-10 percent next year, many GMs have been slashing costs wherever they can.

The other key factor? LeBron James and the supersized free-agent class of 2010. A number of teams are trying to make or save cap space for next summer. LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, among other stars, are expected to hit the open market. So many teams, including the New York Knicks, are being more financially responsible than we've seen in recent years.

With the 2009 NBA free-agent frenzy subsiding, here's a sneak peek at who could be available in 2010:

Group I: The "Big 10" ETO or player option candidates

These are the players with an "early termination option" (ETO) or "player option" (PO) in their contracts, meaning they can opt to forgo the final year(s) of their deals and instead become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2010. Here's the star-studded lineup:

Key: player option (PO) | early termination option (ETO)

1. LeBron James, Cavaliers (PO)
The buzz surrounding LeBron's foray into free agency next summer has been the loudest in NBA history, and we've been hearing it for years. Several teams have focused their strategy on being a candidate to sign LeBron or another player on this list.

But first, the big question is whether he would actually leave the Cavs. The conventional wisdom on this has been all over the place. The Knicks and Nets were thought to be his biggest suitors, and they'll both have the money to pay him. The problem is that both teams could be so depleted from a talent standpoint that he may not want to come. A couple of other teams, including the Heat and Bulls, will also be far enough under the cap to pay him if he wants to go to a team that already has a more established roster.

If I were a betting man, I'd wager that LeBron will ultimately stay in Cleveland. But it should be fun watching him shop around next summer.

2. Dwyane Wade, Heat (PO)
There hasn't been nearly the hype around Wade's potential departure as there has been for LeBron's. Why? One, most people in the league believe Wade wants to re-sign in Miami. Second, Wade turns 28 in January. He's not the young franchise cornerstone that LeBron is.

Still, there will be plenty of teams interested in Wade next summer. The Knicks, Nets, Heat, Bulls and Rockets will all come courting with realistic pitches about why he should bolt South Beach. But it's just as likely the Heat will use Wade as a recruiter to get one of these top free agents to come to Miami instead.

3. Kobe Bryant, Lakers (PO)
It's unclear whether Kobe will stay on this list. He's eligible to be a free agent this year, 2010, or 2011, but there's virtually no chance Kobe will opt out of his contract with the Lakers. He's been working on a three-year extension this summer and should have something in place by the fall.

But if things were to fall apart, there would be a tremendous amount of interest from all of the aforementioned teams, especially the Knicks. Kobe and Mike D'Antoni have a great relationship.

4. Chris Bosh, Raptors (PO)
Bosh has been pegged since last year as the young star free agent most likely to bolt his team. The Raptors have been struggling, and Bosh has been privately pining to return to the States. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he will leave, but the Raptors are really sweating it. They need to show huge improvement this season.

You can expect every one of the teams with cap space to make a big push for him. The Rockets would be appealing because they play in Bosh's native Texas. But the Heat might be the most interesting option. A Bosh-Wade combination sounds formidable. And don't count out the Bulls. They want him, and with young players like Derrick Rose on the squad, he'd have a bright future in Chicago.

5. Amare Stoudemire, Suns (ETO)
When he's healthy, Stoudemire is as good as any big man in the league. Just 26 years old, he's hyperathletic and a monster on the offensive end. But questions about his knees, an eye injury and his attitude have hurt his stock a bit, and he won't be pursued as vigorously as the first four. The Suns sound like they'd like to retain him, but there's a good chance he'll walk if the Suns don't turn things around this season (or trade him first). A reunion with his old head coach, D'Antoni, in New York or his old boss, Bryan Colangelo, in Toronto would appear to be the two most likely scenarios should Stoudemire leave Phoenix.

6. Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks (ETO)
Nowitzki turned 31 in June but still plays like an All-Star. The question is, for how much longer? Dallas is hoping to get a few more seasons out of him, and most likely, he'll agree to an extension with the Mavs. Given their commitments to Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd over the next few years, I'd expect them to lock up Dirk, too.

7. Yao Ming, Rockets (ETO)
Yao would obviously be much higher on this list if his entire career weren't in jeopardy at the moment. Yao has had major surgery on his foot this summer and will spend the entire season rehabbing it. The Rockets are hoping he has a Zydrunas Ilgauskas-like recovery and goes on to several more productive seasons in Houston.

However, that's a big "if" right now. Given that Yao will be out the entire season, it seems unlikely he'll terminate his contract in 2010. But if he does and can show that he's healthy, he'll obviously have interest from every team with cap space.

8. Paul Pierce, Celtics (ETO)
Pierce has been pretty adamant that he wants to be a Celtic for life, and it looks as though it will play out that way. He turns 32 in November. While he is still going strong, he probably has only two or three more highly productive seasons left in him. Most likely, the Celtics will give him an extension.

9. Tyson Chandler, Bobcats (ETO)
There won't be a lot of great centers on the free-agent market next year, and if Chandler can have a productive, healthy season for Charlotte next year, he might want to opt out of his contract. He is just 26 years old, and if the top free agents all stay home, a team with a lot of cap room may be willing to open up its wallet in a long-term deal for him.

10. Richard Jefferson, Spurs (ETO)
The Spurs just traded for Jefferson and should be fielding a team that will be a championship contender for the next few years. While Jefferson might try to opt out, it's highly unlikely he could earn anything close to the $15 million he'd be due during the 2010-11 season.

Other notables: Kenyon Martin, Nuggets (ETO); Michael Redd, Bucks (ETO); John Salmons, Bulls (ETO); Joel Przybilla, Blazers (ETO); T.J. Ford, Pacers (PO); Peja Stojakovic, Hornets (ETO); Vladimir Radmanovic, Bobcats (ETO); Grant Hill, Suns (PO); Channing Frye, Suns (PO); Willie Green, Sixers (ETO); Jason Kapono, Sixers (PO); DeShawn Stevenson, Wizards (PO); Sebastian Telfair, Clippers (PO); Eddy Curry, Knicks (PO)
Click to expand...

sbyang · Aug 3, 2009

The entire 2010 FA thing is a mirage for terrible teams with no future like the Knicks. Oh we stink so bad this year, but please buy season tickets so you can be the first to renew when Lebron and Wade and Bosh come to town!!!!

Of the 10 he listed, Wade and Bosh are 50/50 to move, Lebron is 70/30 to stay. The rest of the guys are all staying with their original teams unless those teams don't want them anymore.

Kojirou · Aug 3, 2009

I'm somewhat amused that McGrady isn't even on the list at all.
And yeah, 2010 is simply fool's gold.

kevC · Aug 3, 2009

Kojirou said:

I'm somewhat amused that McGrady isn't even on the list at all.
And yeah, 2010 is simply fool's gold.
Click to expand...

That's because McGrady is does not have a ETO or PO.

TheGreat · Aug 3, 2009

2010 free agent class will be overrated. Most of those stars/superstars are going to resign.

Better free agent class = 2011

FishBulb913 · Aug 3, 2009

TheGreat said:

2010 free agent class will be overrated. Most of those stars/superstars are going to resign.

Better free agent class = 2011
Click to expand...

If the 2011 guys don't resign too

vinsensual · Aug 3, 2009

If I were a betting man, I'd wager that LeBron will ultimately stay in Cleveland. But it should be fun watching him shop around next summer.
Click to expand...

No it wont be fun. Damn ESPN

Astrosfan183 · Aug 3, 2009

The Knicks, Nets, Heat, Bulls and Rockets will all come courting with realistic pitches about why he should bolt South Beach
Click to expand...

Ford just speculating or do we actually have any realistic interest in Wade?

W22_STREAK · Aug 3, 2009

Astrosfan183 said:

Ford just speculating or do we actually have any realistic interest in Wade?
Click to expand...

we won't even have enough capspace to offer a star a max contract..

but a sign and trade could be likely if wade is certain to leave miami and the one man team that is the miami heat right now

AusFan · Aug 3, 2009

Players can almost always make the most money by staying with their current team, so most will stay put unless they have some strong motivation to leave.

rocketblaze · Aug 3, 2009

the main guys Im looking to target in the 2010 Free Agency would be as followed:
Chris Bosh(6'10)
Joel Przybilla(7'1)
Brendon Haywood(7'0)
Joe Johnson (6'7)

With this guys we can finally get some HEIGHT in the front court...and IF ping
pong balls go our way we could be looking at the strongest starting line up in
the nba, over Lakers, and Spurs....
Wall(6'5)
Johnson(6'7)
Ariza(6'9)
Bosh(6'10)
Yao(7'6)

Rox Addict · Aug 3, 2009

So Jason Capono is better than T-Mac

baller4life315 · Aug 3, 2009

LOL at....

1) LeBron
2) Wade
3) Kobe
4) Bosh
5) Amare
6) Dirk
7) Yao
8) Pierce

Then....

9) TYSON CHANDLER

manbearpig · Aug 3, 2009

kevC said:

That's because McGrady is does not have a ETO or PO.
Click to expand...

I dont know what either of those stand for. I was expecting McGrady atleast in notables.

Rocket86 · Aug 3, 2009

TheGreat said:

2010 free agent class will be overrated. Most of those stars/superstars are going to resign.

Better free agent class = 2011
Click to expand...

Book it. Most if not all will resign. It would be a huge gamble to think that by clearing cap space that these free agents will end up signing with the team. They would have a chance but the likely scenario is that the player would resign. Bosh and maybe Wade would be the best bet to move but the rest would stick.

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