[ESPN Insider Request] Debate: Biggest surprise of 2010-11

TMac.








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Question: Which team will be the biggest surprise this season?

BROUSSARD: In most NBA seasons, a team comes out of nowhere to surprise everyone. Last season, the Milwaukee Bucks and even the Oklahoma City Thunder did much better than most expected. This year, my surprise team is the New Orleans Hornets, who I think will reach the Western Conference playoffs.

BUCHER: That would be a surprise, but I'm going to go with the team that everyone loves to discount, including their own fans: the Los Angeles Clippers. The world has seemingly forgotten just how good Blake Griffin can be. Put him with a healthy, happy and newly married Chris Kaman as well as Eric Gordon and you have one of the best young nuclei in the league.

CB: I'm putting my faith in Chris Paul. The Hornets were 23-22 last season when Paul was healthy, 14-23 when he was on the sidelines. And I think the New Orleans roster is very comparable to the one that reached the second round of the playoffs two seasons ago. Paul and David West are still the horses; Emeka Okafor, while a different type of player, is as good as Tyson Chandler; Marcus Thornton is coming off a terrific rookie season and should play even better off a healthy Paul; and Trevor Ariza can shine now that he's back to being a role player. With the Denver Nuggets due to fall whenever Carmelo Anthony is traded (certainly by the February trade deadline), I look for New Orleans to claim a playoff spot.

RB: Wow. I guess that makes sense if you ignore that Paul wanted out of New Orleans just a couple of months ago, that some of his teammates preferred playing with Darren Collison because he gave up the ball more, and that new coach Monty Williams has never run a team before. Yeah, the future certainly looks bright in New Orleans.

Okafor, in all-around skills, is probably better than Chandler -- but he's an awful fit with the Hornets and Paul. I like the moves GM Dell Demps made, particularly acquiring Ariza, but the loss of Collison to the Indiana Pacers makes that an overall wash. Sure, there's a chance the Hornets could be competitive enough that Paul doesn't resume his push to leave before he's a free agent. But with a tough opening schedule -- eight playoff teams in their first 10 games -- there's also a good chance that he'll come back to the conclusion he came to over the summer: He can't win in New Orleans.

CB: Until you provide some names, I'll dismiss your contention that some significant Hornets players preferred Collison over Paul. Beyond that, Paul has no choice but to play his heart out this season, even if he doesn't see himself in New Orleans long-term. He's a competitor and he knows he only hurts himself -- both his status as the top PG and his trade value -- by making waves. So the trade talk is a nonissue, at least for this season.

I'm sure you know how high people are on Monty Williams. For you to dismiss him because he's a first-year coach is foolish, since tons of coaches, including Doc Rivers, Rick Carlisle and Nate McMillan (among scores of others), have had first-season success.

RB: Paul already made waves, so I'm not sure why he wouldn't do so again. Nobody's going to hold it against him, either -- he's that good. Feel free to stick your head in the sand about something that threatens your theory, too.

CB: Waves with whom? The Hornets' coaching staff and front office have moved on, and none of the players is good enough to hold a grudge. Kobe Bryant made much bigger waves a few years ago and, even before the Lakers traded for Pau Gasol that season, things were easily smoothed over.

RB: How can you be oblivious to what a star holding a franchise hostage can do to a team behind the scenes, after all we've learned about Cleveland and Toronto? And how can you compare it to Kobe, when that only quieted down because they went on a 27-12 run, added Gasol and went to the Finals? If New Orleans does all that, yeah, then the Hornets will indeed be the surprise team and CP3 will be happy.

CB: CP3 isn't holding New Orleans hostage. He doesn't yet have the leverage to do that because he's still got two years left on his contract. And the impending free agency of LeBron James and Chris Bosh didn't hinder their teams last season. Cleveland won 61 games and entered the playoffs mentally healthy, while Toronto's dismal play was a result of their bad talent, chemistry and coaching.

RB: CP3 doesn't need free agency to make the franchise jump to his tune, as he's amply demonstrated. The Cavs never would've built their team the way they did if they weren't terrified every day of LeBron leaving. Toronto made similar moves for Bosh. Desperation begets desperate acts, not always smart ones.

CB: Baron Davis is much more likely to be a distraction and a morale killer than CP3. If Baron would bring it, I'd be a Clippers believer. But we all know he won't -- certainly not for the bulk of the season -- and with three years, $42 million left on his deal, it'll be impossible to hide him. Face it, B-Diddy is a huge thorn in the Clippers' side, one that will hinder them enough to keep them from fulfilling their potential.

RB: I'm not counting on Davis to be a factor. In fact, I like that he's hurt and out of shape, because now Vinny Del Negro can build his rotation without him. With the strength of their other four spots, Randy Foye and Eric Bledsoe are enough to flirt with the eighth seed.

There is reason to fear The Beard. On his best behavior, the Clippers are scary good. But since I've been told he spent more time working on his film career than his now-fragile physique, I'm not expecting much. That lack of focus has crushed BD-led teams before, but I look at the character and talent of this team and a coach, in Del Negro, who isn't afraid to call a guy out -- as he already has -- and I can see them winning whether BD is on board or not.

CB: You've got nerve claiming I'm overlooking a potential problem in Paul when you're acting as if BD's insolence is a minor blip on the Clippers' screen. There's no way he's out of the rotation unless he's seriously hurt. As soon as his nagging injury is healed, he'll be back in the lineup. Davis is their best player, highest-paid guy, point guard, team leader and face of the franchise, and you think he can be swept aside like a 10th man? Talk about holding a team hostage! His arrival at camp in poor shape is a bad omen, brother, and you know it.

RB: I'm not ignoring BD at all; I'm banking on the rest of the Clippers' talent and Del Negro's ability to hold a team together under chaotic conditions as he did in Chicago. The only accuracy in your description of BD is that he's their highest-paid player and he's a PG.

CB: I agree with you that, if BD is engaged, the Clippers could be good, but there are other questions as well. Everyone's assuming Griffin will be all that -- and I like him a lot too -- but at this point, he's nothing but a burly question mark. He hasn't scored one NBA point yet and, physically, he's shown frightening frailty. Foye is only slightly above so-so, and Kaman, who's also been a bit injury-prone, has yet to show that his numbers can correlate to wins. Foye and Craig Smith are also coming off summer knee surgeries. Your boys have issues -- too many unfortunately, to make a run out West.

RB: The biggest reason I have for making the Clippers my surprise team is that it won't take nearly as much for them to surprise. If they're a .500 team, that will be a huge achievement based on where they've been. The Hornets do have to make the playoffs to be considered a "surprise," and I don't see anyone dropping out of the West's top eight. And if someone does falter, the Houston Rockets will be next in line to grab a playoff berth, not the Hornets.

 

So many comments on NO Hornets and LA Clippers..not much rockets said

 

Wow, how can they argue for so long when they're both idiotically wrong?

 

did those guys stop typing for a minute and fight? geez

 

Wow - and the Rockets will be next in line to grab a playoff spot? Change that to next in line to get home court advantage. We had it two years ago, and with a healthy Yao even for 24 minutes a game, we are a better team now than we were then. I think we can win 55 games.