Are we about to watch history? You've probably heard by now that no NBA team has ever come back to win a series after trailing 3-0 in the postseason in 103 tries. But that statement might not hold true this time next week as the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics have both reversed momentum in their respective series, forcing a Game 6 on their home floors with huge wins Wednesday night. No team has ever come back, but has any team ever come this close? Yes. Our friends at the Elias Sports Bureau inform us that, entering this postseason, 10 teams in NBA history had pushed a series to Game 6 after falling behind 3-0 in a best-of-seven series. The bad news: Only three reached a Game 7, and all 10 ended up losing the series outright. Six of those teams enjoyed home court in Game 6, just like the Rockets and the Celtics do. FOLLOW THE NBA ON ESPN Stay up-to-date with the latest NBA news, stories and analysis. Follow the NBA on ESPN on Twitter, Facebook and Google+: Twitter » Facebook » Google+ » Rockets shooting guard Carlos Delfino and Thunder shooting guard Thabo Sefolosha have been here before. After facing a 3-0 deficit against the Detroit Pistons (Delfino's then-team) in the 2007 Eastern Conference semifinals, the Chicago Bulls (Sefolosha's then-team) rallied back with two double-digit wins to force a Game 6. But momentum is a fickle thing. Despite winning the prior two games by a total of 31 points and having the home court in Game 6, the Bulls lost by 10 in front of their fans. Oh, and word to the wise: Don't even mention the word "momentum" to Blazers fans. In 2003, they blew out the Dallas Mavericks by 22 in Game 6 after trailing 3-0 in the series. What happened in Game 7 with all those good vibes? They lost by double digits to Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki's crew. Let these be lessons about the flimsy nature of momentum. Sure, it might feel like the Celtics and the Rockets have the upper hand right now, but history is on the side of the other guys. With that said, OKC and the Knicks shouldn't feel too comfortable about their 3-2 cushions. And here's why. Why the Rockets can come back If you're looking for a Cinderella, the shoe fits in Houston. That's because the Rockets employ the standard blueprint for upsets: offense with ultra-high variance. No one knew what to make of the Rockets this season because, thanks to their 3-point addiction, you didn't know what you were going to get from night to night. For an underdog in a seven-game series, that unpredictability can be a huge asset. Among the 272 playoff teams since 1996-97, this Rockets squad posted the third-highest variance in their offensive rating during the regular season. In other words, they were either remarkably good or dreadfully awful. And that pretty much tells the tale of the series. In the first three games, the Rockets shot a miserable 27.8 percent from downtown on an average of 36 attempts -- all losses. In the most recent two games, they looked like a high-powered machine, shooting lights out from deep (41.9 percent). Surprise, surprise: They won those two games. Eight-seeds that are consistently mediocre don't get very far, but throw some variance into the mix and David has the potential to beat Goliath -- especially when Goliath has suffered a gaping wound. The Russell Westbrook injury makes OKC extremely vulnerable, and there are signs that it has already maniacally smashed the panic button. Look no further than coach Scott Brooks' dubious decision to play "Hack-a-Turk" -- as Houston coach Kevin McHale so put it -- down the stretch in Game 5 rather than relying on OKC's stingy defense, which ranked in the top three this season on a per-possession basis. As ESPN Stats & Information tells us, the Rockets scored just nine points on 17 possessions in the fourth quarter when Omer Asik wasn't at the line for an average of 0.53 points per possession. When Asik went to the line? The Rockets scored 1.38 points per possession, almost tripling the reward for Houston. The "Hack-a-Turk" strategy would make sense if the Rockets' offense was overwhelmingly dominant in the series, but that's not the case. Heading into Game 5, the Rockets had scored just 0.99 points per possession. On the other hand, sending Asik -- a 52.7 percent career free throw shooter -- to the line generated 1.04 points per possession. While intentionally fouling can tighten the Rockets' wild variance, it doesn't make sense unless the free throw shooter is horrifically bad. Asik wasn't terrible enough to make it a sound strategy. Houston can pull the comeback off, but it will depend on its 3-point shooting. For a team that shot 36.6 percent in the regular season from downtown, the previous two games are closer to what we would expect from Houston than the first three games. That's not good news for OKC. Why the Celtics can come back Variance is a good thing for underdogs like Houston, which needs risky strategies to overcome a talent disadvantage, but it can be the downfall for a favorite like New York. Why? If you're a good team, you want to be consistently good so you limit your risk of an upset. But you know who shot more 3-pointers than the Rockets this season? That's right, the Knicks. However, the Knicks have cut down on their 3-point attempts a tad in exchange for long 2s by Carmelo Anthony. That's not good. Lately, they've reverted back to the notorious "give the ball to Melo and hope for the best" strategy of yesteryear, which would be OK if Anthony was a metronome of efficiency. Instead, he was the most volatile scorer in the NBA this season, according to his game-by-game variance in the points column. For a guy who relies so heavily on contested jumpers, the Knicks have been needlessly handcuffed to Anthony's brand of basketball. Consider this: Anthony has shot an NBA-high 69 midrange jumpers in the playoffs, according to NBA.com/stats. The second-place guy? Carlos Boozer with 38. Yes, Anthony has almost doubled the number of midrange jumpers than the next-highest player. In fact, Anthony has taken more midrange jumpers than the Heat (67 in four games), Bucks (66 in four games) and Rockets (46 in five games). This bears repeating: Anthony has taken 23 more midrange shots than the entire Rockets team. Maybe it shouldn't be a surprise that the stathead Rockets have been allergic to the most inefficient shot in the game. For a favorite like the Knicks, it's not a sustainable strategy to hang your hopes on whether a low-percentage shot goes in. The result is that Anthony has posted the highest usage rate by far among any player in the playoffs (39.7 percent), but he ranks 106th among 150 players with a .494 true shooting percentage (a field goal percentage that accounts for 3-point shots and free throws). The Celtics, whose front office ranks as analytically savvy as they come, will gladly allow Anthony to take jumper after jumper if it means efficient scorers like Raymond Felton (who has been fantastic in this series), Tyson Chandler and Steve Novak have to watch from the periphery. The Knicks' offense is unhealthy right now. For all the talk about how coach Mike Woodson revamped the offense this season with more passing, the Knicks are assisting on the second-lowest proportion of their field goals (43.6 percent) of any playoff team of the past five seasons. The only team worse than this one? Last season's Knicks (41.2 percent assist rate). If the ball-stopping continues, the Knicks will likely be same ol' Knicks with the same ol' first-round exit.
Enjoyed the read and thanks for posting it here. But dang, "variance" has turned into a pregnant wife, seeing that word everywhere now.
Sorry, this must be a fake ESPN link because according to the TV channel, as far as ESPN is concerned, only the Celtics against the Knicks counts for this. Apparently our series doesn't qualify enough to be mentioned.
I don't know about ESPN, but on TNT they were not only talking about this series, but they also said that we have a better chance to win it than Boston.
Rockets had 10% of chance of winning Game 5 but won it, mainly OKC was missing a ton of open jumpers. For example, KM made 1 out of 11 open jumpers, while Harden made 7 out of 8 three pointers. This is not going to happen in Game 6. Therefore, I would say Rockets has 30% chance of winning Game 6, mainly because they are playing at home court. I would say Rockets have 10% chance of winning Game 7, so their chances of winning the Series is below 5%.
I don't agree. Harden was atrocious in game 4, and Parsons was bad in game 5, and we won both. In game 3, we had a great chance to win it had Durant's shot not miraculously dropped. Now, we have tons of confidence and momentum, so I say we have about 60% chance of winning game 6. For game 7, it's gonna be tough. But if we make it that far, we would have won three in a row by then and OKC would be under tons of pressure. I say we have a 50% chance of winning it. Therefore, I put our chance of making history at around 30% - not good, but possible.
Considering one team is down a star player and the other isn't, I'd take my bets on the team that hasn't lost one.
OKC lost in the last 2 games mainly because missing Westbrook. Brooks either failed to adjust or too late to adjust the team. As good as KD is, he cannot win by himself. At least McHale see it and no longer go ISO Harden to win game. Basketball is a team game and require team effect.
It's interesting how badly positioned the Knicks are. The Celtics' strategy is to have NYK's star take as many shots as possible and contest them, while denying the other 4 players the ball. The Rockets' strategy is to deny OKC's star and have the rest of the team take contested shots. When the other team wants your superstar to take more shots . . . maybe your 'superstar' isn't so great.
Don't know what stats class you took but you're way underestimating the rockets chances of victory. You're selectively choosing the most extreme statistics to focus on, for example ignoring that Parsons went 0-5 from three so his combined shooting with harden would be 7-12, not that extreme. You're also not considering the fact that KM and Jackson's performances aren't likely to improve that substantially in game 6, since they are not known for being mentally tough road performers in an extremely hostile environment. The most difficult game for us was game 5, in which I gave us about a 25-30% chance of victory. Game 6 chance should be closer to 60% and game 7 around 30-40%. Think about the last time the rockets made the playoffs. Vs the blazers and lakers, the only home game we dropped was game 3, right before Yao suffered the season ending injury. One more thing, for a team to have a chance of victory as low as 10% (pretty laughable that you actually made that claim), you have to be pretty terrible. Note that 10% equates to playing a team TEN TIMES and only winning once. Considering that the Thunder regular season home winning percentage was around 83% (vs aggregate of opponents), and the Rockets are clearly an above average NBA team, AND the existing evidence that the rockets can win in OKC (game 5 as well as massive 4th quarter comeback in game 4), our chances are better than you think. Imagine the confidence our guys will have if they force a game 7... Having won 3 in a row and going toe to toe in the two losses before that... OKC has a storm coming to town.
Nice read. PP and KG are old but no kidding, they have the heart of champions. Whereas JR and Carmelo are somewhat inexperienced and immature. Rockets really catch a break with WB out. Hope the Rockets and Celtics make history!! That'd be nice.
What really changed is Harden saw the effort of a few players, like Garcia and Parsons, and realized he could let the game come to him instead of forcing the issue Kobe style. Also McHale may run ISO late in the 4th (every team with a capable player does) but the shot selection is all on Harden.. Too many times he settles for a jumper, which in this case won us the game. We are in such a solid position with our PG's on fire whilst Lin is out (both able to be spot up 3 shooters, making our offense more effective with Harden on the ball) and our SF's shutting KD down on most possessions as well as contributing offensively. If i were Brooks, i'd go tall with Perkins, Ibaka, Liggins, KD and Jackson and see if the Thunder can dominate the boards
