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ESPN Insdier...who the Rox would take at 1, 2 or 3

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by NJRocket, May 17, 2002.

  1. NJRocket

    NJRocket Member

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    5. Houston Rockets
    Number of balls: 89 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 8.9% | No. 2 pick: 9.6% | No. 3: 10.8%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Yao Ming. This is a bit iffy. He's clearly an upgrade over Kelvin Cato and with Steve Francis manning the point, they don't need Williams. Coach Rudy Tomjanovich has has been itching to go international and knows a thing or two about coaching foreign-born centers.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Mike Dunleavy. League sources say the Rockets are one of the teams telling Dunleavy they'd take him very high if he entered the draft. They have a need at small forward and they have some time for him to develop with Glen Rice still hanging around.
    Who they'd take No. 3: Caron Butler. If Dunleavy and Yao were gone, they're also very high on Butler. His toughness, athleticism and energy should meld well with their high-octane backcourt. They also like Nikoloz Tskitishvili, but they could probably trade down and get him later in the lottery.
     
  2. NJRocket

    NJRocket Member

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    as for the rest of the teams...

    1t. Chicago Bulls
    Number of balls: 225 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 22.5% | No. 2 pick: 20.3% | No. 3: 17.6%
    Who they'd take No. 1: One of the toughest teams to project. The Bulls' staff is pulling for Williams. It's hard to believe they could pass him up. The team does have an up-and-coming point guard, Jamal Crawford, but Williams is a better talent. The team needs offense and leadership, all things Williams can provide. However, the word is that GM Jerry Krause is absolutely intoxicated with Yao's upside. Krause envisions an ultra-big lineup of Yao (7-5), Eddy Curry (6-11), Tyson Chandler (7-1), Jalen Rose (6-8) and Crawford (6-6) someday. A third scenario has the Bulls selling off the pick to the highest bidder. They drafted two high school players last year and they're awfully young. If Yao or Williams could land them a young, All-Star caliber player (like Elton Brand, the guy they traded away last year) it might be time to start thinking about winning a basketball game or two.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Obviously, if they get the No. 2 pick the decision would be made for them. If Yao was still on the board it would be Yao. If Williams was still on the board then it would be Jay.
    Who they'd take No. 3: Mike Dunleavy. The team has been trying to get a hold of sweet-shooting small forward for the last few years. It made an effort to grab Wally Szczerbiak and Mike Miller last summer and Dunleavy has the potential to be better than both of them.

    1t. Golden State Warriors
    Number of balls: 225 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 22.5% | No. 2 pick: 20.3% | No. 3: 17.6%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. Despite all the speculation that Yao would the perfect fit in the Bay area, the team loves Williams. With Larry Hughes flaming out at point guard this season, it's the team's biggest need area. Yes, Gilbert Arenas played well there at the end of the season, but he's no Jay.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Yao Ming. The Warriors aren't as high on him
    as other teams and they could pass. But he's better than anything they have in the post right now, and from a marketing perspective, he may be able to put a few fans in the seats. If they draft him, they'd be able to move either Erick Dampier or Adonal Foyle for a veteran point guard.
    Who they'd take No. 3: Chris Wilcox. No offense to Danny Fortson, but if the team could grab an athletic power forward who can score in the post, run the break and rebound, it'll do it. Fortson, despite his strong rebounding skills, hasn't really fit in anyway and the Warriors would probably be able to move him this summer for a mid-level point guard.

    3. Memphis Grizzlies
    Number of balls: 157 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 15.7% | No. 2 pick: 15.8% | No. 3: 15.7%
    Who they'd take No. 1: The team, despite being one of the worst teams ever, has never won the No. 1 pick. Now that Jerry West is running the show, he might have the magic to pull it off, but who knows what he'd do? We're used to him taking obscure players like Devean George or Derek Fisher late in the first round. Kei Madison is intriguing, but we don't think he's worthy of the No. 1 pick, Jerry. If Yao hadn't given the Grizzlies the stiff arm, he'd be an obvious pick here. With the retirement of Big Country, the team has a gaping hole in the middle. But the likelihood that Yao stays in China increases dramatically if the Grizzlies draft him. Williams makes sense, he's an upgrade over the other Williams, but, believe or not, league sources say West actually has a taste for White Chocolate. Go figure. Don't be surprised if they trade this away for a prospect that's a little further along.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Same dilemma. My guess is that they trade it.
    Who they'd take No. 3: There's been a lot of speculation that the team likes Dunleavy, but I think you shouldn't count out Qyntel Woods here. He's been working out in Memphis and he's just the type of obscure pick West loves. Scouts say he could be a Tracy McGrady-type player. You gotta love that. But he's still very raw and questions about some off-court issues may scare the Grizz away.

    4. Denver Nuggets
    Number of balls: 120 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 12.0% | No. 2 pick: 12.7% | No. 3: 13.4%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. The team has been subtly sending out signals that it's not that high on Jay. That's bull. Its backcourt is the thinnest in the league. Whether he's a point or a two guard, it doesn't matter. He helps the Nuggets win a few more games next year and might be good enough to convince Antonio McDyess to re-sign next summer.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Yao Ming. Kiki Vandeweghe likes him and the team has a pretty good relationship with China after bringing Menk Bateer over this year. Since losing Raef LaFrentz, they have no center. He's a great fit here, though I've heard that Yao didn't include the Nuggets on the short list of teams he was willing to leave China for.
    Who they'd take No. 3: Dajuan Wagner or Mike Dunleavy. Wagner's the next best thing to Williams. He has the talent to go this high and he'd be instant offense for the Nuggets, regardless of what position he plays. They're also intrigued by Dunleavy. Though small forward is less of a need (they still like James Posey), they won't have a guy who can extend the defense after Voshon Lenard takes off this summer.


    6. Cleveland Cavaliers
    Number of balls: 64 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 6.4% | No. 2 pick: 7.2% | No. 3: 8.2%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. Yes, they have Andre Miller, but they also have serious contract issue with him. Williams provides some of the same point guard skills and gives them a more potent scorer. Miller's value is very high around the league and the team could probably trade him for a couple of young All-Stars in training.
    Who they'd take No. 2: They wouldn't dare take Yao. Cleveland is Taiwan as far as the Chinese are concerned. Wilcox, Butler or Dunleavy would all get a look here. Tyrone Hill has only one year left on his deal and the Cavs will try to shop Lamond Murray this summer, so there's a need. They haven't worked out any of these players, so it's a bit early to say who'd have the edge.
    Who they'd take No. 3: See No. 2.

    7. New York Knicks
    Number of balls: 44 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 4.4% | No. 2 pick: 5.0% | No. 3: 5.9%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Yao Ming. Sorry Knicks fans. This will be a very unpopular pick, but Scott Layden is convinced that Yao is the answer to all of his problems. If Yao turns into the next Frederic Weis, the fans will have Layden's head on a platter.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Jay Williams. Yes, they have a ton of point guards, but none of them are nearly as talented as Jay. Williams wants to play in New York and Layden may be able to figure out a way to ship out either Charlie Ward or Howard Eisley.
    Who they'd take No. 3: Chris Wilcox. The Knicks love him. He's the type of athletic power forward they've longed for. He can run the floor, bang inside and block shots. He's a bit of project, but the team will take a chance on his upside.

    8. Atlanta Hawks
    Number of balls: 29 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 2.9% | No. 2 pick: 3.4% | No. 3: 4.0%
    Who they'd take No. 1: The Hawks need to win one of these top 3 picks or they'll have to send their pick to the Clippers. If the team does get the No. 1 pick, it's Williams all the way. Jason Terry is just more comfortable playing shooting guard and as much as I love Jacque Vaughn, he isn't the answer.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Mike Dunleavy. Toni Kukoc is plagued by injuries and Dunleavy may be a lot closer in skill level to Kukoc than Larry Bird or Grant Hill. The team really struggled to find a consistent three-point threat and even though Dunleavy will need a few years to develop his body, he'll still be able to play on the perimeter until he gets stronger.
    Who they'd take No. 3: If Dunleavy isn't around, they'll look at Butler and maybe even Tskitishvili. They're set everywhere else.

    9. Phoenix Suns
    Number of balls: 15 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 1.5% | No. 2 pick: 1.8% | No. 3: 2.1%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Tough decision. They're publicly still behind Stephon Marbury, but if they could draft Williams, they might be able to swap Marbury for a strong power forward. Williams may be too good to pass up here.
    Who they'd take No. 2: You'd think Yao would get a look, but the word around the league is that Jerry Colangelo isn't impressed. If that's true than they'll go with the guy they really covet, Wilcox. The team has been searching for the past four seasons for a replacement for Antonio McDyess. He's as close as you get.
    Who they'd take No. 3: If Wilcox were gone for some reason, Drew Gooden might be a nice pick for them here. While he isn't quite the low-post player that Wilcox is, he's more versatile.

    10. Miami Heat
    Number of balls: 14 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 1.4% | No. 2 pick: 1.7% | No. 3: 2.0%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. Rod Strickland and Anthony Carter are nice, but Williams has the potential to turn the Heat around right away. He's the one player that takes them from lottery team to a Finals contender right away.
    Who they'd take No. 2: With Alonzo Mourning on the decline it's not inconceivable that the Heat would take a chance on Yao. Riley has always liked to have size on his team and there's a good possibility that the Chinese wouldn't object to their national treasure playing for one of the NBA's best coaches.
    Who they'd take No. 3: Mike Dunleavy or Caron Butler. Dunleavy gives Riley the versatility and outside shooting he covets. Butler gives him the aggressiveness and toughness he demands. If you could mold the two together, you'd have the perfect Pat Riley player.

    11. Washington Wizards
    Number of balls: 7 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 0.7% | No. 2 pick: 0.8% | No. 3: 1.0%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. Michael Jordan would've taken him No. 1 last season and he'd do it again this year. With Chris Whitney and Tyronn Lue in the backcourt, anything is an upgrade at this point.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Yao would like to play in Washington, but Jordan has shown a mistrust in the past of international players. He summarily dismissed Pau Gasol as a legitimate candidate last year and has never had an affinity for big men. Instead, he'd probably go after a small forward with some size. Dunleavy and Butler are both candidates here.
    Who they'd take No. 3: See No. 2 -- Dunleavy or Butler.

    12. Los Angeles Clippers
    Number of balls: 6 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 0.6% | No. 2 pick: 0.7% | No. 3: 0.9%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. I really don't think Donald Sterling is this lucky, but if the team could land Williams, it'd be scaring the hell out everyone in the West next year come playoff time.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Yao Ming. Why not? With the chance that he might not even come over here, he's the perfect pick for Sterling -- he might not cost him a penny.
    Who they'd take No. 3: Chris Wilcox or Drew Gooden. They need more size. Wilcox would give them another power player to go along with Elton Brand. Gooden is more in the Lamar Odom mold.

    13. Milwaukee Bucks
    Number of balls: 5 out of 1000
    Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 0.5% | No. 2 pick: 0.6% | No. 3: 0.7%
    Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. See ya Sam. The Bucks don't need another player who loves to chuck it up, but at least it would be an excuse to ship the moody Cassell out of town.
    Who they'd take No. 2: Yao Ming. I'm sure George Karl hates him, but the Bucks could use the interior defense.
    Who they'd take No. 3: Chris Wilcox would give them the athletic power forward they've never had
     
  3. NJRocket

    NJRocket Member

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    I got a funny feeling that Dunleavy is gonna be a Rocket
     
  4. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    I almost hope we slip in the lottery down to 6 or 7 so we have to pick up Butler instead of Dunleavy!
     
  5. NJRocket

    NJRocket Member

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    I was thinking that too but there has to be a reason why so many teams are so high on Dunleavy. I personally dont see it but what the hell do I know?
     
  6. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Member

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    It's interesting to see how Ming would really only be picked number one for sure if the Knicks got the pick, and likely if the Rockets did, but no one else. And I was surprised to see Wilcox so high so often, but I guess it makes sense (he does have the size to go along with the athleticism).

    In the end, if the Rockets can't get who they want and can trade down and still grab that Tishkli guy while picking up an extra pick/player than I wouldn't be dissapointed.
     
  7. TheFreak

    TheFreak Member

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    I don't understand the small forward fascination myself...I think the Rockets need big people. However, it would be cool to have "Chicken Little" on the team.
     
  8. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Member

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    That's the same feeling I had when reading that. For those not yet convinced, you know Rudy wants this guy. He wanted Wally-World, he wanted Mike Miller.

    Three-point shooting, basketball smarts. And he'd make a tall 3, which is how the NBA is leaning these days (Stojakovic, Nowitzki).
     
  9. DCkid

    DCkid Member

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    I don't have any doubt the Rockets would take Dunleavy if he was available when they pick. However, if Memphis picks third or fourth, I don't see Dunleavy falling past the Griz.
     
  10. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Member

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    I think you can see a lot of Insider's own biases in the lists. They obviously think Yao is a dangerous investment, that Wilcox is better than Gooden, that Dunleavy is more valuable than Butler who is more valuable than Woods, and that Jay Williams is the most talented of the whole lot and will be one of the top PGs in the league (prompting trades of Cassell, Marbury, Miller, or Terry just to make room for him).
     
  11. man532

    man532 Member

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    Gentlemen, I'm not sold on Dunleavy, he looks very soft and reminds me of Dan Langhi who is smart, shoots the jumper and his mouth off well. He couldn't get playing time.

    In addition, no one has mentioned our most glaring weakness, which he adds to DEFENSE. His defense is poor, because Duke is the Dallas Mavericks of the NCAA. Once Indiana played D, they were back in the game.

    RUDY/CD we need players who can stop someone. Unless D Stern has mandated more running and gunning to fill up seats. However, we want to win and that's accomplished with D.

    I would prefer Wilcox or Woods than Dunleavy. My very good friend from NE Mississippi says that Woods is the truth and nothing but the truth.
     
  12. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Member

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    Why would Memphis be interested in a SF? I'd think they'd have the position well covered between Battier and Gasol. I'd think Dajuan Wagner would be their guy. They'd have a pretty versatile lineup actually: Wagner can play 1 or 2, Battier can play 2 or 3, Gasol can play 3 or 4. Plus Williams at 1 and Swift at 4, they'd have only the center position still to fill.
     
  13. DCkid

    DCkid Member

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    Battier plays the two and Gasol definitely plays the four. Plus, it seems like Wanger's stock has been dropping a little. I'm not sure if they think he'd be worth a #3 pick, and Jerry West apparently like White Chocolate.
     
  14. Achebe

    Achebe Member

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    Well, you can't argue with the truth. However, with Woods being labeled 'raw' from every news outlet's 'source', I will learn a thing or two if Woods is actually drafted before Dunleavey. The way most people are writing it up, you'd almost expect Tskitishvilli(sp) to be drafted before Woods.
     
  15. Clutch

    Clutch Administrator
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    I think it's:

    #1: Ming
    #2: Probable trade
    #3: Dunleavy or Butler
     
  16. NJRocket

    NJRocket Member

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    I was just going to say the same thing DC...Gasol is certainly not a 3...he is a definite 4...he is 7 feet tall for goodness sakes...and Battier is more of a 2 than a 3 I think
     
  17. Achebe

    Achebe Member

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    I could see an additional SF making Memphis' small ball game interesting, but I don't think Memphis would take Dunleavy over Butler. Butler would rip next to Battier, both of them feeding off of being aggro. Butler would make Memphis undeniably better than the Rockets (they're probably already there). Dunleavy would be just questionable enough on that squad (where will all of the points come from) to slow Memphis' growth.

    The same is true for Denver. Denver needs points.

    The Rockets, the Rockets don't need points. The Rockets need at least one player that has a clue.
     
  18. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Member

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    I hope that we don't get Dunleavy. I don't think he's better than Sczerbiak....might be better than mike miller...but not wally world...and sczerbiak's not even all that good.
     
  19. DearRock

    DearRock Member

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    So Micheal Dickerson is history in Memphis, no longer starting material?
     
  20. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    <i>Gentlemen, I'm not sold on Dunleavy, he looks very soft and reminds me of Dan Langhi who is smart, shoots the jumper and his mouth off well. He couldn't get playing time.

    In addition, no one has mentioned our most glaring weakness, which he adds to DEFENSE. His defense is poor, because Duke is the Dallas Mavericks of the NCAA. Once Indiana played D, they were back in the game.

    RUDY/CD we need players who can stop someone. Unless D Stern has mandated more running and gunning to fill up seats. However, we want to win and that's accomplished with D.

    I would prefer Wilcox or Woods than Dunleavy. My very good friend from NE Mississippi says that Woods is the truth and nothing but the truth.</i>

    Here we go with the Dunleavy is a bad defender stuff again. Dunleavy was first team all-defense in the ACC this year. He is not a poor defender. Wilcox, who you prefer, did not make the ACC all-defensive team.

    I'm not exactly sure what you mean by saying that Duke is the Dallas Maverics of the NCAA. If you're saying that they play no defense and just try to out score you, then you couldn't be more wrong. Here's Duke's defensive rankings in the ACC last year:

    Points allowed - #2 (only NC State allowed fewer ppg)

    Opponents FG% - #2 (only Maryland held opponents to a lower fg pct)

    Opponents Turnovers - #1 (20.1 per game)

    Steals - #1 - (10 per game).

    If Duke is a poor defensive team, then the rest of the ACC really sucks (and that includes the National Champs).

    As far as Woods, almost every scouting report on him says that he plays no defense what so ever, so wanting Woods would seem to go against the idea of wanting defense. Juco ball isn't exactly known for it's defense. If you think Duke plays like the Mavs, then Juco ball is closer to the Globetrotters.



    <i>Battier plays the two and Gasol definitely plays the four</i>

    <i>I was just going to say the same thing DC...Gasol is certainly not a 3...he is a definite 4...he is 7 feet tall for goodness sakes...and Battier is more of a 2 than a 3 I think</i>

    Gasol started more games last year at the 3 than he did at the 4. Grant Long started 56 games at PF with the Grizz. For most of those games Battier was at the 2, Gasol at the 3 and either Lo Wright or Tony Massenburg was at center.
     

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