ESPN--How to replace Billups, Gallinari

Spoiler

The landscape in the Western Conference was altered by this week's injury news regarding the Denver Nuggets' Danilo Gallinari and Los Angeles Clippers' Chauncey Billups. Gallinari's ankle problems are supposed to sideline him for a month; Billups is definitely out for the rest of this season and may never play in the NBA again.



The Nuggets and Clippers were among a handful of teams capable of challenging the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder in the postseason, so where do these injuries leave them? The situations are completely different, so rather than compare them, we'll just deal with one team at a time.


Nuggets



The Nuggets' calling card ever since last season's blockbuster Carmelo Anthony deal has been depth, which means Denver is likely to come out of Gallinari's absence just fine, right? Perhaps, but to assume that is to underestimate just how good Gallinari has become. He's not only increased his usage rate this season, but he's done so while using his possessions as efficiently as ever. His .597 True Shooting Percentage is right on target with what he put up two seasons ago, when he was using 3 percent fewer possessions.




More importantly, Gallinari has made the crucial leap from play finisher to playmaker. His assist rate (12.8 percent) is more than five percent better than his previous career high, and he's done this while cutting his turnover rate by 2.4 percent over last season.



As impressive as all that is, Gallinari has also continued his under-the-radar improvement on the defensive end, so much so that George Karl uses him on key defensive assignments late in close games. In a recent loss to the Clippers, Gallinari was guarding Chris Paul down the stretch.



Let's compare Gallinari's season to that of a randomly selected former Nuggets forward:


Star comparison

Comparing Gallinari's 2011-12 numbers to Anthony's. Player Win% WARP ORtg DRtg Usg TS%
Danilo Gallinari .611 3.36 108.7 105.2 .218 .597
Carmelo Anthony .574 2.50 107.9 105.6 .330 .506




So the point is, Gallinari won't be easily replaced, even by a team with a roster as deep as Denver's. Rookie Julyan Stone replaced Gallinari in the starting lineup for Wednesday's home loss to the Dallas Mavericks, but Stone won't be asked to fill his role. Stone is a defensive specialist whom Karl placed with the first unit in order to keep the rest of his rotation intact. Ultimately, Stone played just seven minutes, while the court time for Al Harrington and Rudy Fernandez increased.



Harrington and Fernandez both have better plus/minus numbers than Gallinari this year, so you might think that would get the Nuggets by until he returns. However, Harrington doesn't really play much small forward these days, and Fernandez is more of a 2, so both will be logging more minutes at an unfamiliar position.



Corey Brewer has been Gallinari's primary backup, but he's currently not with the team because of the death of his father. When he returns, Brewer will likely take Stone's place with the first unit and log 23-28 minutes per game. He can hold down the fort defensively, but the Nuggets will lose a lot of offense when he's on the floor.



Luckily, Wilson Chandler will probably ride to the rescue when he returns from China. The news that he plans to return to the Nuggets is timely indeed. Chandler offers basically the same skill set as Gallinari, except he's a better rebounder but not as proficient as a playmaker. He's coming off an overseas stint during which he averaged about 26 points and 11 boards, so his game should be sharp.



Denver should be fine muddling through with Stone and Brewer until Chandler arrives. Down the line, when Gallinari returns and hopefully gets back into game shape, Chandler offers a needed upgrade to the bench, giving Denver a legit 10-man rotation.


Clippers



Depth has been an issue for the Clippers, but luckily for them that's a frontcourt problem only. L.A. had five quality guards on its roster before Billups went down, and now they have four. In terms of quantity, they should be fine. Unfortunately fit is a problem, and unlike Denver, the Clippers are probably going to have to go outside the organization to fill out their rotation.



With Billups gone, Randy Foye steps into the starting lineup. Foye replaces Billups' size in the first unit, but leaves a pair of 6-foot-1 guys coming off the bench in Mo Williams and Eric Bledsoe. Nobody outside of Charlotte, N.C., would be crazy enough to play a backcourt that small for very long, and one of them is going have to play alongside six-footer Chris Paul from time to time.



The Clippers have been mentioned as a possible landing spot for J.R. Smith once he finishes up his time in China. At 6-6, Smith could plug the size gap and may be a better option than Foye to play alongside Paul with the first group because he's a more consistent outside threat. That may seem like a strange statement given the streaky nature of Smith's game, but Foye has been maddeningly inconsistent during his up-and-down career, and the Clippers may not want to rely on him in a large role.



Smith is a much better defender than Foye and his gambling ways might play well alongside Paul and in front of DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin's athleticism. Not only can he provide the same floor spacing (but not playmaking) as Billups, but he can play heavy minutes and help deflect some of the defensive leak that occurs when Williams steps on the court. The Clippers are 10.4 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Williams in the game, which is the primary reason Billups' plus/minus numbers have been so strong this season even though he was shooting worse than he has in about 11 seasons.



Unfortunately, the Clippers have only the veteran's minimum to offer Smith after burning their mini midlevel exception last week on Kenyon Martin (remember our sermon about opportunity cost?).



That doesn't necessarily rule out Smith for L.A. There might be no better way for Smith to showcase his ability before another summer of free agency than to play a big-time role on a contending team -- and make it work. He might be surrendering money in the short term, but if things go well in L.A., he'd be making it up down the line.