http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings I believe Hollinger's Power ranking is calculated based a number of objective measurements such as (1) team w/l record, (2) margin of victory/defeat, and (3) strength of schedule (opponent win%). The Rockets ended up being #6. They have the 12th best winning $, 11th best margin of victory, and 5th best strength of schedule. This ranking is similar to, and consistent with the "Simple Rating System" ("SRS") ranking used in basketball-reference.com that I referred to in the "Early Statistical Comparison" thread. The SRS is based on margin of victory and strength of schedule and ranked the Rockets 5th or 6th. Of course, the season is only 10 games old, but so far, objectively speaking, it is arguable that the team, as it exist now, is, say, a top 10 team in the league (being a bit conservative here on the assumption that some teams, like the Lakers, will get out of current slumps) if they keep it up. That would put the Rockets on pace to win 50+ games. Is it possible for them to do it?
Of course it is possible for the Rockets to win 50 games. And it's possible because the players are putting in so much effort. I wonder how we'll fare when the better teams hit their mid-season 'groove' - the stars start to execute more consistently and the set plays don't break down as often. I think we're in the 40-45 win category; but a couple more wins against 'contenders' (ie Phoenix today?) slides us up a category.
i definitely think that we are a 50 win team. We are playing with the same intensity that we played in the series against the lakers without yao and tmac. i like our chances this year! signed, the eternal optimist.
Just look at what Vegas thinks. They have more to lose than Hollinger or any other power rater. The pre-season futures had the Rockets in the top 10...and this was after the news that Yao was out for the year. I think Vegas bought into Morey's/Adelman's system and the players potential efforts a long time ago. Sorta funny how skeptical the fans were leading into the season. Of course we have 7/8's of the season left. Let's see if this high level of effort can be maintained.
It's still early in the season, where stats don't matter as much. Based on those, we're a spot up on the Suns. Tonight will be a test if we're good enough to play with the best in the West.
The way the Lakers played against us, it's a wonder that the Kings aren't above them. I would like to think we can win 50 games, but i can't. I think 48 is our ceiling. Prove me wrong Rockets!!! :grin:
1. I know it's not very accurate given only 10-11 games have been played so far, but I like that we have the hardest SOS out of the top 10 teams. Lakers and Portland twice, plus Dallas, @Utah, and @OKC who should be contenders for the playoffs this year (and are #9 on the power ranking not coincidentally) means that we're compiling a 6-4 record that is more than legitimate; interpolate our current play and we should win at a better than .600% for the rest of the year. 2. The fact that Phoenix, Dallas, and Portland have had relatively easy schedules tells me that they have a good shot of falling back to earth. At least, Phoenix and Dallas should, since they're both freaking old teams. 3. Does anyone else think it's strange that the Lakers, who have a harder SOS rating than us and only slightly smaller win margin (W/L record is irrelevant under Hollinger's rating system, only point differential and SOS matter as well as both stats given your past ten games) is that much lower in the ranks than us?
This team needs a little bit of a cushion to win games. As we play more games and are involved in close contests, we'll know more. I'm thinking we'll struggle in these, and to win 50, you need to win a majority of these. As such, I think this current team's ceiling is about 44 games. Which might just be enough to sneak in the playoffs... Of course, I'm basing this on the current roster, not counting the wild card that is TMAC, for the better or worse.
I thought Hollinger didn't usually start posting these power rankings until about 25 games into the season. Ten games is much too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions from. That said, I agree that this team can win 50 games if they can keep up the intensity.
What the hell are you talking about? They weren't top 10. Are you talking about championship odds or regular season win totals or something else completely?
i dont think we have a chance winning 50. We are still catching teams by surprise I think. Without a big man on the boards this team is fatally flawed.
formula for winning 50 games: win half your away games - 20 - 21 win 2 thirds of your home games - 30 - 11 win total 50 - 32 not so easy, but doable
This team is even catching me by surprise! I attended every playoff home game during our first championship. I watched every Rockets game on TV even before the championship (no bandwagon) until I left for college in 2000. I have never been more proud of a Rockets team in my life. The Rockets stopped being mere entertainment for me. They inspire me. I love this team. Even if they end up at the bottom, they come to play every day despite overwhelming odds against them. You can scour all the teams in different sports leagues. You won't find this quality in many of them. I love this team.
I understand the strength of schedule thing, but there is no way we are better than Pheonix in the early going. They're 9-2, we're one loss from being a .500 team.
