Link: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds Summary: Hollinger's model estimates that we'll be 44-38 and have a 78.1% chance of making the playoffs. We're currently the 8th seed. Although we're currently on top of the SW, we can't be feeling very good about the way we've been playing. We don't look like contenders; rather, we look like a team that will struggle to make the post season.
What is Hollinger's rating of our strength of schedule for these first 12 games. I guess the fact that SA and Dallas turned out to have bad records makes the computer models of our schedule weaker than what we all thought when we first looked at our opening schedule.
A terrifying .470. Dallas and SA have looked pretty bad too, but based on our last games against them, we looked much worse ....
I didn't realize SOS was a strict average winning % of opponents. I thought maybe Hollinger weighted it somehow. About his playoff odds, does anyone really expect only one team in the West is going to win 50 games? Seems power rankings overrate the East in the early parts of the season in previous years.
I could be wrong. But I think what it does is to play the probabilities according to the current records. As such, it is highly unreliable early in the season when teams are still adjusting and sample sizes are small. But when it gets to the middle of the season, it can be a decent predictor of the final regular season records.
Just looked at the standings: our Road Wins vs Home losses record is 5th in the conference; our Conference record is 3rd in the conference, and our PT differential is 5th. Those are pretty good indicators as well.
That thing doesn't matter for months! Why is it even out now? The Clippers and Blazers would have been playoff bound this time last year. Totally irrelevant at this point across the board. Whats the Lakers projected finish though? I am too lazy to look.
Still early in the season, and I can't read much into Hollinger's rankings until we've gotten a good two months in at least. I'm BUYING this team while all of you bandwagoners fall off. The Rockets are notorious slow starters, and right now especially so with McGrady not yet 100% and a key starter still wearing street clothes. Artest will eventually fit in ... it took these guys three plus months last season to get any kind of continuity on offense last season. With sufficient time Artest will get his offensive mojo going too. This team is deeper than it has ever been, and frankly the only problem I see right now without a solution so far is lack of height at C behind Yao. If you've forgotten what it's really like when this team finally gets going midseason, just rewind back to February. And then consider how much more talented this year's squad is.
Anyone that thinks this team will struggle to make the playoffs is kidding themselves. We're not nearly as bad as we've looked. The only question is whether we'll become as good as we had hoped.
People that think the sky is falling are really underestimating what Battier brings and has brought to this team the past three seasons. The argument could be made that we would have missed the playoffs each of the past two years in Yao's absence sans Battier. Whether we stay/get healthy is the concern, but the performance and certainly the defense will be there. It always is in February.
81-1. Just kidding, but it just goes to show you how irrelevant a playoff projection is at this point in the season. All that's being taken into account are the stats up until this point.....potential, chemistry, and injuries all play a factor, so right now, this is as valuable as a stale bag of doritos.
It's valuable as a snapshot of where things are right now. Let's face, Lakers fans are saying to themselves "The team just needs to keep on doing what they're doing and we can win it all." Rockets fans are saying "If the team pulls it together and things start to click we have a chance." Which camp would you rather be in?
In this post you are actually conceding that the Rockets might make the playoffs? Multiplying that by the northeastfan pessimism correction factor yields the number 1 seed! Woo Hoo!!
Rocket fans are saying: If we can get healthy *and* if we can get our chemistry *and* if we can get a decent backup center *and* if we can get our offense working *and* if we can get our defensive intensity back *and* if TMac can play like the pre-2005 TMac *and* if Yao can play like the 2006 pre-injury Yao *and* if Artest can adjust *and* if Landry can regain his pre-injury form *and* if Battier can play like he did in 2006 *and* if Alston doesn't stink it up *and* if our role players can contribute significantly, then we have an outside chance of maybe, perhaps being special and advancing past the first round.
I have a crude version of similar predictor that accounts for opponents' current winning/losing and home/road status. It has the Rockets winning 46 games right now. To me, this team is much better than a 46-win team. We'll see how it goes two months from now.
44 wins? I understand how he arrived at that, and that's all he's saying. But who here honestly thinks we're going to win only 44 games this season? Is the reduced effectiveness of T-Mac and Yao really going to account for an 11 game swing? Especially when you consider the maturation of Brooks and Scola, as well as the addition of Artest. I still think they're going to turn it on. 44 wins...I really do not see that happening.
