[ESPN-Hollinger]Analysis: Rockets, Jazz fighting hard and shooting ugly

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Analysis: Rockets, Jazz fighting hard and shooting ugly
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

With so much of our focus drawn to two shocking developments involving last year's finalists, and much of what was left eyeballing the Suns-Lakers rematch, many of us have missed out on a darn-good playoff series between Utah and Houston. And to the extent it has been covered nationally, the focus has been on the struggles of Utah's Andrei Kirilenko or the "It's on me" statement by Houston's Tracy McGrady.

That's unfortunate because the hard-fought series has been practically a dead heat as we head into tonight's Game 6 at the Polonium-210 Center. Plus, the stakes have only increased in the wake of Golden State's potential upset of Dallas because the winner might have an unexpected home-court advantage in the second round.

I spent some time combing through the numbers, and here are some significant stories from this series:

Houston can't score. One of the most shocking playoff stories in the first round has been the Rockets' inability to make a basket. I expected them to score fairly easily against the Jazz, who finished 19th in defensive efficiency and lacked stud defenders at the two positions -- shooting guard and center -- from which the Rockets get most of their offense.

Well, that's why they play the games. Through five games, Houston's offense has been disastrously bad -- most notably in the Game 3 meltdown in which only four players scored.

Houston has the worst field goal percentage of any playoff team -- worse even than Miami or Orlando -- at a pathetic 39.5 percent. Wait, it gets worse. On many trips, the Rockets can't get a shot off in the first place: They have turned it over on 16.5 percent of their trips, which is also a playoff worst. And despite Utah's immense propensity for fouling during the regular season, the Rockets haven't reached the free-throw line with notable frequency.

Add it all up and you have the third-worst offensive efficiency rating by any team in the playoffs, which shouldn't happen based on the regular-season results. Houston was 14th offensively and Utah was 19th defensively, so you'd think the Rockets could put up at least average offensive numbers in the playoffs.

So Houston can't score. Yet the Rockets are up 3-2. There's a reason for that. It's because ...

Utah can't score, either. As bad as the Rockets have been offensively, Utah has been worse. Although the Jazz's field goal percentage and turnover rates aren't as bad as the Rockets', they're scoring almost entirely in 1s and 2s. The Jazz have converted just 14 3-pointers in the five games, and it's not for lack of trying -- they've attempted 61. Utah has by far the worst 3-point percentage of any playoff team at 23 percent.

Moreover, the Jazz aren't getting to the line much. Jerry Sloan's motion offense is heavy on collisions around the basket, which is why his team ranked second in the NBA in free-throw attempts per field goal attempt during the regular season at .380.

Those foul shots have dried up in the playoffs, though -- just .230, or less than two-thirds of what they did in the regular season. It's not as if this is a big strength for Houston's defense, either -- the Rockets were eighth in the category in the regular season at .308.

Because of that, Utah's series true shooting percentage of 47.8 is easily the worst of any playoff team, Miami included. Its overall offensive efficiency isn't much better, ranking 15th of the 16 teams at 95.8 points per 100 possessions.

Considering Utah ranked third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the regular season, this is a bit of a stunner. If you're looking for scapegoats, there's Kirilenko, of course, but Mehmet Okur and Deron Williams also have performed well below their regular-season numbers. That has left Carlos Boozer as the only consistent offensive threat.

Luther Head's playoff disaster. The focus on Kirilenko has taken some of the focus away from how much Houston's role players have struggled in this series, particularly Luther Head. Houston's sixth man has what appears to be a good matchup for him -- the Jazz don't have the kind of big, post-up guards that can give him fits on defense, so he can stay on the court and fire away 3-pointers at will.

The problem is that his aim is way off. A 44.1 percent 3-point shooter during the season, Head has made just 4 of 19 in the postseason. He's yet to score in double figures in the playoffs after averaging 10.9 points a game in the regular season, and he had one point in Games 2 and 3 combined. All told, Head is shooting 26.7 percent from the floor, and his 3.38 playoff PER is the third-worst of any player with 100 or more playoff minutes; only Toronto's Joey Graham and Washington's DeShawn Stevenson have been worse.

Houston also needs to get more offense from Juwan Howard (6-for-6 in Game 5 but worthless until that point) and Chuck Hayes at the power forward spot, but Head is probably the biggest variable. The threat of his 3-point shot opens up space for Yao Ming on the blocks and McGrady on the wings, but if he isn't sticking his shots, the Jazz can double-team those players much more freely.

So, although McGrady says it's "on him" to get out of the first round, and to a degree he is correct, I'll be paying a lot of attention to Head tonight. If his shot is falling, that might be what snaps Houston's offense out of its funk and into the second round. If not, it's back to the Toyota Center for Game 7.