ESPN--Free-agent deals: Thumbs up or down?

Didn't see the Clippers signing Butler, I was pretty sure he was going to be resigned by Dallas or the Spurs (seeing as how they're rumored to use the amnesty deal on Jefferson). Both LA teams are going to be pretty intriguing to watch, assuming the 3 team trade for Paul goes through.

 

Welcome to the 24 hours of offseason. Yes, it's been a wee bit frenetic out there, but I'm here to recap all the moves we're hearing about and tell you what it all means, along with my verdict (thumbs up or thumbs down) on each. We'll be adding to this list as the offseason goes on, although major deals will likely get their own treatment.


Shane Battier to Heat: Thumbs up



We don't have the dollars yet, but it's believed to be for the "mini-midlevel" of three years and $9.4 million. I guess Battier should have released those figures when he went all Kevin Love on us and announced it on Twitter.

Battier will help Miami in several important ways. First and most obviously, he's a wing player, and since Mike Miller is injured and James Jones opted out of his contract, the Heat kind of needed one. Second, his ability to be a defensive stopper should take some of the onus off LeBron and D-Wade to play primary defensive roles in addition to their offensive burdens; Miller couldn't do that. And finally, he's big enough to slide up to power forward (in fact, I'd argue at this point in his career he's more effective in that role) as a floor-spacing big man.

Offensively, Battier is a perfect fit for this team -- he rarely shoots but converts a good percentage when he does, he can space the floor with his corner 3-pointer, and he's very good at feeding the post if LeBron ever chooses to go there. While Battier is 33 and has seen better days, the price here is right.

This deal also has a couple of important roster implications for the Heat. First, it means Miami is unlikely to amnesty Miller, since the primary motivation to do so would be to have access to a full mid-level exception. (Or more accurately, that the Heat won't amnesty Miller this year; they may very well still do it in two years when the penalties for tax teams become far more draconian.)

Second, it means the Heat are now looking at minimum-contract solutions at point guard and center, along with re-signing restricted free agent Mario Chalmers. In a related story, Miami announced it will invite Eddy Curry to training camp to compete for a roster spot. You can save yourself from spilling any ink on Sam Dalembert scenarios; it's going to be another year of Joel Anthony and assorted 38-year-old castaways.


Caron Butler to Clippers for three years, $24 million: Thumbs down



The Clippers were desperate for a small forward ... as you can probably tell by this contract. After Ryan Gomes failed to work out last season (shocking, I know), the Clippers plunged into the market at this position and pulled the trigger on Butler after whiffing on Tayshaun Prince. (Side note: I'll go out on a limb and guess they didn't bother asking Mike Dunleavy Jr.)

Butler is 31 and coming off a serious knee injury. He's primarily an offensive player and has been below the league average in PER the past two seasons.

The good news? While the Clippers overpaid, Butler will at least be an upgrade on Gomes. He averaged a point every two minutes last season pre-injury and, combined with Eric Gordon and Mo Williams, the Clips now have a ton of floor spacing around Blake Griffin.

Nonetheless, mid-level and above contracts to players who are (a) 28 and older and (b) not All-Stars represent a good chunk of the league's bad contract slag heap, and it's amazing the league's GMs have become none the wiser for it. It's inconceivable that a 34-year-old Butler will be worth over $8 million a season, but that's what the Clips will be paying him. It may have seemed like there were no alternatives because they wanted a "proven" (read: old) small forward, but there are almost always better options than signing a bad contract.


Mike Dunleavy to Bucks for two years, $7.5 million: Thumbs up



Dunleavy is 31 and has a bad knee, too, but he played 61 games last season and was a better player than Butler. I find this deal eminently reasonable and he will help fill out a Milwaukee wing rotation that was a bit short-handed last season.

The interesting wrinkle here is that the Bucks can sign Dunleavy with cap space or with exception money. If it's the former, they can amnesty Beno Udrih and still have about $8 million in cap space. If it's the latter, they have a chunk of mid-level money left to sign a surplus big man.


Tayshaun Prince to Pistons for four years, $30 million: Thumbs up



I actually don't have a big problem with this contract. Like Butler and Dunleavy, Prince is 31; unlike those two, he rarely gets injured, and while he's no longer an A-list defender, his offensive performance has suffered basically no drop-off over the past six seasons. The way Prince plays wouldn't seem to make him susceptible to sudden decline; he stands two steps off everybody he guards and just uses his length, and offensively he's mostly a mid-range jump shooter. If he loses a step, you'll hardly notice.

While the short-term ramifications aren't terribly exciting -- a bad, capped-out team signing a 31-year-old non-star -- the Pistons can at least keep this asset for a future trade if nothing else. Players of this age are always a risk, but Prince is about as low-risk as a 31-year-old can get.

Spurs amnesty Richard Jefferson: Thumbs up


San Antonio became the first team to announce it will use its amnesty provision, kicking Richard Jefferson to the curb with three years and $30 million still left on his deal. With a robust market for small forwards right now, I'd expect San Antonio to get some of that money back when teams start making amnesty bids.

The salary-cap logic of this move is twofold. For the current season, it's basically a two-for-one trade -- dumping Jefferson gets the Spurs under the luxury tax, which gives them a full midlevel exception and a biannual exception to grab a replacement small forward and an extra big man. Should San Antonio use both, the savings on the Spurs' luxury tax bill would be roughly $9 million, or exactly what they're paying Jefferson to not play for them. It's cost-neutral, in other words, even though they're eating his salary.

For the future, it leaves the door wide open for the Spurs to blow up the team at any moment of their choosing ... or to supplement it with a free-agent splurge .Tim Duncan's $21 million comes off the cap after this year; he'll re-sign, but likely for about $10 million less, which would leave the Spurs several million under the cap ... or more, if the annual Tony Parker trade rumor actually comes to fruition this time around.

In other words, it opens up a multitude of options for the Spurs. I have no idea why they signed that deal with Jefferson in the first place, but the case for amnestying him is very strong as long as they can get somebody remotely competent in free agency.

Greg Oden to Blazers for one year, $8.9 million: Thumbs up



This was the only sensible outcome for both sides, barring a crazed $50 million plunge by somebody like New Jersey -- which, scarily enough, might have actually happened depending on how the next few days played out. Oden gets a couple months to prove he can stay healthy (er, once he's healthy, that is) after a likely return in February, and if so greater riches await him as an unrestricted free agent.

For Portland, meanwhile, the Blazers are now set up for a "last-dance" type season. Portland gives the Oden thing one more try; if he gets hurt again it has invested half a decade and couldn't be blamed for moving on. Meanwhile, Brandon Roy gets another shot to prove that he can recover his former glory, and if not the Blazers will amnesty him next summer.

With Marcus Camby and Raymond Felton also coming off the books and Gerald Wallace at least somewhat likely to opt out, Portland's Plan B looks pretty strong -- the Blazers will have a ton of cap space, even after you account for their likely midlevel exception splurge, and can rebuild around LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Nic Batum and whatever other players they want to keep. In the meantime, we get last one shot at seeing if this Roy-Oden thing can work.

Jonas Jerebko to Pistons for four years, $16 million: Thumbs down



But only slightly. This deal for Jerebko, a restricted free agent coming off a major injury, strikes me as a bit optimistic. We're still learning details on these deals and I'm hoping that last year is a team option; if so it would shift me to a thumbs up. If not, however, I think Detroit got a bit carried away. While Jerebko showed during his rookie season he can be a useful combo forward, and the Pistons are clearly in rebuilding mode, there's no reason to go four guaranteed years for a player like this, especially with all the leverage being on the Pistons' side.

Tracy McGrady to Hawks for one year, veteran's minimum: Thumbs up



This was a great deal for the Hawks, who are basically limited to using minimum deals to fill out the roster if they want to stay under the luxury tax. (And given the profitability of this enterprise, I'd say they're pretty gung-ho about that latter consideration.) T-Mac was a Jekyll-and-Hyde player for Detroit last season -- when he was good he was really good, but on many nights his knees just weren't up for the challenge. This season's schedule is going to be murder on him, but in a 15- to 20-minute bench role in Atlanta I suspect he can handle it.

While it's unfortunate that Atlanta has yet another inefficient 2-point jump shooter, given the Hawks' need for (a) ballhandling, (b) passing, and (c) wing depth, it's hard to argue with McGrady. Especially at this price.

Shannon Brown to Suns for one year, $3.5 million: Thumbs up



One-year deal equals no-risk deal. I really like that. Brown should also enjoy playing at Phoenix's tempo, and the fact he'll never have to handle the ball is another plus. It appears the Suns are signing him to bring off the bench behind Mickael Pietrus; I hope so since Brown isn't a starter. But he'll finish some games for them, and he'll given them a lift off the bench with his scoring.