Does anyone have the rest of this article they can share? Its about point differential I believe On Monday night the NBA's eyes turn to the mid-South, where the league's top two teams through the first 10 games of the season square off. The host Memphis Grizzlies and visiting Houston Rockets have both started 9-1, putting them unexpectedly at the top of a Western Conference that looks as deep as ever. The fast starts portend good things ahead for Houston and Memphis, both of whom were considered part of the West's second tier of contenders entering the season, a level below the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. Since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, teams that have started 9-1 have averaged nearly 56 wins (not counting lockout-shortened seasons).
Here you go http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11890548/nba-make-hot-starts-houston-rockets-memphis-grizzlies
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...-hot-starts-houston-rockets-memphis-grizzlies On Monday night the NBA's eyes turn to the mid-South, where the league's top two teams through the first 10 games of the season square off. The host Memphis Grizzlies and visiting Houston Rockets have both started 9-1, putting them unexpectedly at the top of a Western Conference that looks as deep as ever. The fast starts portend good things ahead for Houston and Memphis, both of whom were considered part of the West's second tier of contenders entering the season, a level below the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. Since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, teams that have started 9-1 have averaged nearly 56 wins (not counting lockout-shortened seasons). Kevin Pelton, ESPN.com Of course, there's wide variation within that group, which includes both the winningest team in NBA history (the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who finished 72-10 after starting 9-1) and one team that missed the playoffs (the 2001-02 Milwaukee Bucks, who went 32-40 the rest of the season to finish at .500). Fortunately, there's a reliable way to separate the contenders from the pretenders among the fast starters: point differential. Even given such a small sample of games, point differential has predictive power. Teams that outscored their opponents by at least 10 points per game while starting 9-1 finished with an average of 58.2 wins. By contrast, 9-1 teams with point differentials of fewer than 10 points per game ended up winning 53.9 games on average. Not surprisingly, the 2001-02 Bucks fall into the latter category. In fact, Milwaukee's point differential (plus-3.6 PPG) was the worst for a team that started 9-1 since the merger. The fortune-telling ability of point differential is reasonably good news for the Rockets, who have just missed the plus-10 PPG cutoff, outscoring their opponents by 9.4 points per game. However, the Grizzlies have a relatively paltry plus-5.1 differential, good for sixth-best in the West. They've gotten to 9-1 by winning five games by five points or fewer, including Thursday's miraculous Courtney Lee buzzer-beater to knock off the Sacramento Kings. While Memphis' lone loss also came by a single point to the Milwaukee Bucks, on average a team with the Grizzlies' point differential would have a 7-3 record thus far. Memphis doesn't have to apologize for those wins, which count just the same in the standings, but they also shouldn't be taken as evidence that the Grizzlies have been the West's best team in the early going. In fact, point differential shines a spotlight on a West team that's idle Monday. After back-to-back blowouts over the weekend, the 8-2 Golden State Warriors have outscored their opponents by 10.5 points per game, best in the league. They've managed to build that robust point differential against a schedule rated average in terms of opponents and locations, as compared to the weak slates faced by both Houston (sixth-easiest) and Memphis (third-easiest) thus far. When schedule is included, the Warriors aren't the only team that leapfrogs the Rockets and the Grizzlies in the West power rankings. The Dallas Mavericks (outscoring opponents by 9.5 points per game thanks to a 53-point beatdown of the Philadelphia 76ers) and the Portland Trail Blazers (plus-8.4 PPG against a near-average schedule) rank second and third, respectively, in adjusted point differential. Even among teams with different records, point differential is a better predictor of record for the remainder of the season than wins over the first 10 games. So while Houston and Memphis have started out atop the West standings, they may not stay there all season. News and notes • Also on Sunday, ESPN's Marc Stein reported that the Minnesota Timberwolves have talked with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Rockets about a trade involving Wolves guard Corey Brewer. A Brewer trade has seemed possible since the Timberwolves added Andrew Wiggins at his position, and the Cavs are a natural fit given their need for wing stoppers and their ability to fit him into the trade exception they have left from trading Keith Bogans. I'm skeptical of Brewer's ability to keep defenders honest during a playoff series because he's just a 29.4 percent career 3-point shooter, but Cleveland has struggled so much defensively that it might be worth it. The biggest downside for the Cavs would be triggering the luxury tax if they send out no salary in return, which would bring them a year closer to paying onerous repeater taxes on their high payroll. As a reserve, Brewer would upgrade Houston's wing defense and could potentially finish games, with Trevor Ariza sliding down to play power forward. Still, the improvement of Francisco Garcia and rookie Kostas Papanikolaou would be marginal. This may just be a case of GM Daryl Morey exploring his options.
Thank you! That is exactly what I was hoping it was about. Basically, due to our SOS the point differential is not above what we expected going into the season. By the numbers we aren't necessarily over achieving exactly, but doing what we should be to be top four in the west. Hopefully now that Pat is back we can improve a bit more. Continuity is key in improving at this point. (Please come back soon Tjones)
http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings/_/year/2015/week/3 Damn ESPN just jinxed us by putting the Rockets at #1 in their Power Rankings!
Yahoo has us #1 as well: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba-power-rankings--there-s-a-new-no--1-174829398.html
Well, shazbot. There goes the game tonight against the Grizz. Hell, we'll probably lose at home to the Lakers now too.
Rockets have looked terrible these past two games. Looks like we're just going to have to rely on defense solely to win games until our slump subsides.
They love to forget how our sole loss was when were missing three starters. In addition, Dallas' point differential isn't skewed with a 53 point win. Come on. The point differential is clearly not consistent. Also, 6-0 on the road is very convincing, especially when 2 starters have been out the majority of the season. They should have mentioned at least somewhere that the Rockets are top in defensive rating, emphasizing that it is not just hot shooting. Context is key when analyzing records.
The article alludes to point differential carrying a meaningful impact in just 10 games. For us I don't think it matters considering Jones, Beverley and Howard have missed important games.
I'm just thrilled we can rely on our defense to win some games. Last year, if the shots weren't falling we weren't going to win. This is a huge improvement. Another point that makes me optimistic is that Harden is still shooting poorly. If we're doing this well with Harden shooting poorly, imagine when he gets going? We should be very dangerous.
This. Pelton isn't as worthless as some of the creative typists and empty talking heads at ESPN, but his analysis has major gaps in it when he ignores how the Rockets have had to make do with patchwork lineups....AND travel to Mexico and back, what with all the media they dealt with there, the entire organization having to pack up and head south for one game. The team hasn't looked good. They've had that heavy-limbed, just-want-to-lay-on-the-couch look for a few games. But they've still gritted it out.
It goes both ways. We were playing some teams without their top players. Anyway, this topic is not new. Point differential as the most reliable predictor of final records has been documented in the past.
I feel like Papanikolau is Logan / Wolverine in some alternate universe. Please forgive me Beverley, it's just the looks.
