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[ESPN] Bill Simmons new predictions on West (Rockets #7)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Drewdog, Nov 21, 2007.

  1. Drewdog

    Drewdog Member

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    LINK

    7. HOUSTON ROCKETS
    Preseason prediction: 48 wins (fifth)
    Revised prediction: 46 wins

    When your A and B options give a C+ effort, you aren't going very far.
    I was lukewarm on Houston heading into the season; now I'm lukecold. The Rockets couldn't get past Utah, then the summer rolled around and they made multiple cosmetic changes -- Mike James! Steve Francis! Aaron Brooks! Luis Scola! Rick Adelman! -- and everyone got excited, only they have those same five guys who couldn't beat Utah (Yao, T-Mac, Battier, Alston and Hayes). So really, what's different about them? Their big guy is still an enormous defensive liability (especially against quicker teams like Phoenix); their best player is still a questionable Big-Game Guy (and that's being kind); they can't match up with quick point guards; and they don't have one of those Dennis Johnson/Manu Ginobili-type playoff guards who can carry them when their top two disappear.

    They remain intriguing only because they match up with San Antonio better than anyone except Dallas. I just wish I felt better about Yao, a gifted offensive player who kills them on the defensive end (the real reason they lost to Utah). Protecting a one-point lead on Charlotte's final possession two weeks ago, they removed Yao from the game for defensive reasons. He's 7-foot-6! They can't even trust him to protect the rim? He's turning into the NBA version of a designated hitter. (A DH with monster numbers ... but still, a DH.) They would never shop him in a million years, but if they DID shop him, it would be fascinating to see what they could get for someone who can't guard Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan or Dirk Nowitzki. Hmmmmm.
     
  2. Painting_Shade

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    if there isn't a lineup change, yeah that's how it'll be. chuck and rafer are overrated.
     
  3. JeopardE

    JeopardE Member

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    Heh, Simmons is so entertaining, but he's often an idiot too. He's ranking the Rockets so low because of the past few games, as any short-sighted columnist will. Very predictable.

    Chuck is not overrated. However, it is true that he becomes an offensive liability when there is no playmaker (read: T-Mac) on the court to involve him in the offense. I'd chalk it up to Coach A still trying to figure out his lineups -- but without a good playmaking point guard, Chuck shouldn't be on the floor at the same time with Yao when T-Mac is not playing. That's what Scola's role is supposed to be (thankfully he has found his game in the last few days). Chuck should be coming in as a backup center behind Yao playing primarily in the high post.

    It does underscore why our team struggled so much without T-Mac, though -- our opponents cheated off Chuck to front Yao all the time. I thought Adelman would have noticed it in the San Antonio game, but apparently he didn't: we struggled when Chuck was in with Yao, went on a scoring spree when Scola came in for Chuck, and were doing pretty well when Chuck and Scola were in at the same time or when Battier moved to the 4 spot.
     
  4. ind0fo0

    ind0fo0 Member

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    i didnt know yao was a defensive liability. :rolleyes:
    what a r****d. maybe he doesnt every play when a pg or sg tries to run in and his presence alone turns them back to the three point line.
     
  5. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Member

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    Chuck didn't really play all that much in the San Antonio game.. foul problems kept him and Battier out of the first half and then he played part of the third then that was it.

    In the Mavs game Adelman recognized it and pulled Chuck out half way through the first and third.. I think he ended up with like a little over 15 minutes total in that one.

    I think he recognized it, at least it seemed he did.
     
  6. JeopardE

    JeopardE Member

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    Don't blame Simmons. He isn't paid to be an analyst, he's paid to write entertaining columns. He doesn't sit down and watch film. He looks at their record, sees "6-5, 4 game losing streak" and just writes accordingly. Have you seen the NFL stuff he writes on Page 2 every week? Any smart fan knows better than to take Simmons seriously.
     
  7. KeepKenny

    KeepKenny Member

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    Dwight Howard has his lowest career numbers against the rockets. the orlando announcers said it a few games back.
     
  8. Glacier

    Glacier Member

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    Don't take these rankings seriously. Actually I would prefer that Rockets are ranked low, so there won't be so much hype and overexpectation. Let's show the power in the game or in paper.
     
  9. Glacier

    Glacier Member

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    Fixed

     
  10. baller4life315

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    The only one out of that group that kills Yao is Boozer. He contains and holds his own against Duncan. He scorches Dwight Howard badly everytime we play the Magic and you will NEVER EVER catch Yao matched up with Dirk.

    Oh well, it's a good thing Simmons is only paid to write entertaining columns because anytime he tries to make a prediction you can pretty much bet the opposite. He's turning into the Trev Alberts of the NBA.
     
  11. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Simmons basically summed up the pessimist's argument about the Rockets. He exaggerates, but I think there's a kernel of truth to everything he said there.
     
  12. London'sBurning

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    Yao plays Duncan pretty well by my estimation. It's usually when Hayes or Scola guards him that he just shoots over the top of them or just plain overpowers them that he is effective. In a straight post up match up vs Duncan he's less effective and resorts to going around Yao which Yao has improved at. That said if Boozer has the smarts to attack Yao and test his lateral quickness then Duncan is just as capable. At the very least though Yao cancels any effectiveness Duncan may have seeing as he usually has some pretty monster games against the Spurs too. I mean his breakout game in the NBA came against the Spurs his rookie year when he 28 points, and 22 boards. And this was with David Robinson as active member of the Spurs.

    Nowitzki has never been and never will be a matchup for Yao defensively unless its by accident.

    Howard has pretty bad numbers against the Rockets as do many centers in todays league.

    Yao is only a liability on defense when his defender is capable of going around him instead of facing his back against him, or against long range shooting specialists that happen to be centers. It just so happens the Jazz, and Suns have two players on each team that fit the bill.

    As for being benched in the Bobcats game I believe Yao was in foul trouble and the Rockets didn't want to him to get into foul trouble should the game go into overtime. Hayes in that aspect is a modern day Charles Jones.

    I do think the Rockets acquisitions this season haven't raised our chances as contenders as much as we estimated but I don't think we've grown worse last year than before either. We were at least the fifth best team in the league last year, and I think this year's team has at least moved up a notch. Marginal improvement but improvement nonetheless.
     
  13. Icehouse

    Icehouse Member

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    I stopped reading after he wrote this garbage:

    "By the way, somebody needs to point out to Kobe that his current group of teammates might be better than MJ's supporting cast in the '98 playoffs: Scottie Pippen battling a bad back; Toni Kukoc and Steve Kerr; a semi-washed-up Dennis Rodman and a washed-up Ron Harper; Bill Wennington, Luc Longley, Randy Brown and Jason Caffey. Would you rather have that motley crew, or would you rather have a healthy Lamar Odom, Bynum's young legs, Radmanovic's shooting, Fisher's experience, Farmar's floormanship, Turiaf's guts, Walton's savvy and whatever the hell Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm bring to the table? At the very least, it's debatable, right? Suck it up, Kobe. You proved your point."

    Would this be the same Pippen that put up 17, 7 and 5 in the playoffs (playing all games, averaging 40 minutes a night), and held every perimiter threat, as usual?

    Dennis Rodman was washed up, yet he still got 12 boards a game?

    Harper was playing stifling defense on the other teams 2nd best perimiter threat.

    The same Kukoc that made 50% of his shots and 38% of his tre's?

    The same Kerr that made 46% of his tre's?

    Simmons is on crack, and I don't even like the Bulls.....
     
  14. Dave_78

    Dave_78 Member

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    No homerism here but that first paragraph only had two true statements:

    1. We can't match up with quicker guards
    2. We don't have a DJ/Ginobli guy on the roster (that is in the rotation)

    And now Yao is a defensive liability? Sure, when teams go small he can't match the quickness of SFs and freak PFs. And so what if he could not match the footspeed of Boozer who just happens to be 9 inches shorter and one of the more athletic PFs in the game. Who in the game can?

    I like Bill Simmons but he completely mailed this one in. I'm not sure he caught even a minute of last year's loss to Utah in the first round or that he has watched this team even once this year.

    Oh well, here's to hoping we make it to the Finals and wax his beloved Boston Big Three. If we run into them we will.
     
  15. yobod

    yobod Member

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    That's exactly right. Every single one of his arguments has a valid point. I am definitely of the belief that in this offense, Chuck and Rafer ARE a liability, and Yao's defense HAS been non-existent when it matters.....hence us not being able to get stops when we need them most. I mean, you look at this season alone....we've already games against Charlotte (minus the last possession), Lakers, Grizzlies (Darko made Yao look terrible....DARKO), Mavericks, and Suns (where was Yao's inside presence in THAT game..the Suns ran a layup drill on us because he was never able to catch up). I don't agree with him putting us way down at 7th, but I do agree with the premise of the article. Unless something changes, we are going to have a hard time against the better teams in the West.
     
  16. ParaSolid

    ParaSolid Member

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    I love Simmons because he knows how to get people to read his stuff. But yeah, saying the Lakers team now has better players than the Bulls in 98 is really pushing it. Cmon Simmons, you're better than that. At least make your bull**** believable
     
  17. ParaSolid

    ParaSolid Member

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    I'd just like to mention that it wasn't our starting 5 that couldn't beat Utah. It was the lack of any semblance of a bench that killed us. Obviously, Simmons was busy salivating over the Celtics that he didn't bother making an intelligent comment about the Rockets. Oh well!
     
  18. professorjay

    professorjay Member

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    It's Bill Simmons, he's like the Dave Barry of sports writers now. Except Barry might be a little more knowledgeable on sports. Entertaining writer though.
     
  19. Yetti

    Yetti Member

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    It's easy when you want to pull a player down a peg or two, especially when you are this writer
    Anybody knows that Yao Ming can't guard a 6ft.9ins Jump Shooting Power Forward. No big deal!! Why try and make a song and dance out of it, especially when Yao has so many positive things that he does well. :p
     
  20. doublebogey

    doublebogey Member

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    Bill Simmons' page 2 is solely for entertaining purpose, not basketball.
     

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