[ESPN] 2011 Salary Cap projected to be as low as $50M

Yea the numbers are REALLY low but Stern warned everyone last year so hopefully Morey, of which I am sure he has, has figured out a way to adjust the salaries. I really think Chuck is gone and if Dorsey doesn't show much he may be gone too at the deadline. Everyone was wondering why the Rockets did make a bigger splash or made more trades well I think they where waiting on this annoucement to see where they stand and players like David Lee and Paul Milsap will be getting smaller contracts then expected. I wonder if the Rox screw the summer of 2010 and are more inclined to make a move to pick up a star and sign him to an extension now ?

 

Easiest way?

Get Yao to opt out and sign him to a long term contract. Long term as in more years than he wish to spend in this league.

 

the longest contract a player can sign is 6 years. A huge commitment, yes. more years than he wish to spend in this league, doubtful.

 

this is ridiculous when the cap is only twice as much as a kobe or lebron would make

 

Contracts of $17M to $23M are going to become quite rare in the next few years. The big salary glory years in the NBA are fading fast, especially with the cap set at $57.7M.

 

That's why it's more important to have the assets but also ones with salaries large enough (eg Ariza, Battier and Scola) to package for a S&T in 2010 FA.

 

It will be interesting to see how the other teams begin to cope with the projected cap next year. An even greater emphasis on team ball I hope.

 

Unless you get a really good deal out of T-mac, I would not rush to make a trade. Especially if it's overpriced talent.

There are ways to squeeze out some more cap space. I think Battier may be traded before the deadline, for an expiring and a pick or rookie contract player (the oft-discussed Rudy Fernandez being a perfect choice). That should cut like 5 million.

I highly doubt that Chuck's option will be picked up. They could always re-sign him when the dust clears if they still have cap room. There goes 2 more million.

Lowry's cap hold of 6 million is almost certainly higher than his value. I expect either an extension, a sign and trade, or even a straight renounce if we actually land a superstar. That's 3-6 million.

I mentioned this in another thread but what if Yao and the Rockets do a "wink, wink" agreement. Yao opts out on $17 mill and the rockets sign him to a 2 year $21 mill with the 2nd year being a player option. That shaves off an additional $7 mill off the cap. If Yao comes back strong in '10 he can either get and extension or opt out for a fair market contract. If he falters, then he has another year to prove himself and an additional 4 mill that he might not have gotten otherwise.

Also don't discount the ability to make an unbalanced trade with a non-max amount of cap room. We could be the third party leverage team offering a sign and trade for the free agent. Like if we had 10 mill in cap room and it turns out that Bosh is leaving toronto no matter what, we could offer a them Landry for Bosh in a sign and trade. Toronto gets some value back and Bosh gets his big contract.

Obviously if you can move Mcgrady in a slam dunk deal, then you do it. But it is hard to move $23 mill without bring back big contracts.

Best case scenario for the Rockets.

-Trade Battier for Rudy Fernandez straight up since Portland has the cap room to absorb it. Save 6 million.
-Extend Lowry for 3 years 9 million. Save 3 million.
-Decline Hayes' option. Save 2.3 million
-Cap comes in at the midpoint $52 mill instead of the doomsday $50 mill.

So based off your 47.7 mill estimate, these moves would give the team, 36.4 in salaries and cap holds and 15.6 mill in cap room, which is just enough for one max player (Wade would be perfect).

Re-sign Hayes at the minimum which will be about 1 mill, or let him walk if he finds a better deal.

Splash.

 

This is HUGE news for the NBA.

Incredible news for places like Cleveland who want to keep their stars.

Awful news for places like New York where they were leveraging everything against the 2010 offseason.

 

i'm not sure anyone anticipated them being THIS low.

 

This would put the lower income teams in a huge bind. Terrible news for the NBA if it happened. If LeBron stayed in Cleveland, the Cavs would be OK. Same for Wade and the Heat. If those guys leave, the Cavs and Heat will turn into bottom feeders overnight.

 

This is not as bad as it sounds. Teams simply are not going to offer out max contracts. Players had previously convinced themselves that every top player deserves the max. But that's more driven by ego than economics, and players will have to adapt. You can already see the change in player expectations this offseason.

 

ya like signing rashard lewis to 110 mil..seriously he is not worth that much. all they did was create an immovable contract for a decent player.

 

They should have some sort of clause in those enormous type of contracts that states that if the salary cap goes below a certain level, then the dollar figure on the contract will go down some amount. Some teams are going to be royally screwed cuz.

 

It's not too big a deal. If the Rockets have this problem, then so do other teams. All it means is that lots of good players will be settling for the MLE next year.

 

It's revenge of the owners on the players making 20 million dollars a year. The days of players turning down huge contracts with anticipation of getting paid MORE in the open market, might be a thing of the past. Boozer decided to take his money after threatening all season long to bolt. We saw that Boozer saw the economics and decided to stick around. I think that players expectations are going to start to deflate rather quickly regarding their worth.

 

problem is the super stars will still get paid the same while the bench/roleplayers will get less..

 

Two initial reactions:

1) Yet another reason that the 2010 wait-and-see, free agent game is fool's gold. Collect assets, such as Tracy's expiring contract, and acquire your next cornerstone(s) via the trade market.

2) This could suddenly make Tracy's contract a lot more marketable to teams who still want to fall for the fool's gold. Before, one problem with swapping Tracy for a Stoudemire or Bosh was that those guys had expiring contracts as well, so why not just keep the better player? But now that cap room is going to be at a premium, a $23m expiring contract becomes much more valuable than a $15m expiring contract (given that you would presumably trade $8m more in players with the $15m guy).

 

They still are. The max contract, unless you're an old star like Kobe, is based on the percentage of the cap. I believe it's 30% for someone like Lebron or Wade(7 year vet).

Ironically, this is the one year when all the top FA really are worth max money. Or in the case of Lebron or Wade, MORE THAN max money. Yet they'll be the ones most screwed by the economy.