Who has underachieved during the first month? (PER Diem: Jan. 24, 2012) By John Hollinger ESPN.com We're at the quarter-post already, believe it or not. It's been just under a month, but 26 of the league's 30 teams have played at least 16 games of the lockout-compressed 66-game schedule. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...120124&_slug_=2011-12-all-disappointment-team ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Can someone please post the rest of this article?
We're at the quarter-post already, believe it or not. It's been just under a month, but 26 of the league's 30 teams have played at least 16 games of the lockout-compressed 66-game schedule. For those of us who crunch numbers for a living, this means our sample sizes are getting large enough that "it's just couple of games" doesn't really suffice as an explanation anymore. For a lot of players, we've seen worrisome starts that seem well on their way to becoming bad seasons. Take Amare Stoudemire, for instance. Setting aside the chicken-or-egg debate about whether a good point guard could find him easier shots, there's the glaring fact that the explosive first step that triggered his past scoring exploits has lost a good deal of its zip. Nobody seems to remember this, but the Suns ran a ton of high isos for Stoudemire in his final season in Phoenix; it worked because no big man in basketball could stay in front of him, even if he held up a neon sign that read, "I will be going right, as I only use my left hand to hold cutlery and assist in parallel parking." That jet-like blast-off to his right just hasn't been there this season, and as a result Stoudemire is shooting only 41.3 percent from the floor with a sharp increase in turnovers. Again, perhaps a good point guard could find him more creases for easy baskets, but one worries that something more sinister is at work here. At 29 years old with two surgically repaired knees, it's fair to ask if his era as a go-to scorer is drawing to a close. Failing Expectations Which teams and players have been the most disappointing? 5-on-5 Regardless of the cause, the effect on Stoudemire's shooting percentage is crystal clear. Stoudemire had a TS% over 60 in each of his last five full seasons in the desert; that dropped to 56.5 last season in New York and now stands at a disheartening 49.5. His -7.65 point PER drop is by far the largest of any player with at least 400 minutes played this season and has been the primary factor in New York's deceptively awful 6-10 start against a Charmin-soft schedule. As a result, Stoudemire captains my All-Disappointment Team from the first month of the season. Let's take a look at the rest of the roster: Andray Blatche , Washington The poster child for the foolishness in Washington, Blatche's decline has been jarring. He averaged 16.8 points a game a year ago but has exceeded 15 just once in 14 contests this season. Part of the problem is that he's become even more passive than usual; he's essentially stopped drawing fouls and is averaging just 1.5 assists per 40 minutes. While one could reasonably nominate several Wizards for this spot, Blatche should be peaking at age 25 in his sixth season; instead, his PER is down a shocking 6.03 points, which is a big reason the Wizards have both the league's worst offense and the league's worst record ... and an even bigger one for why Flip Saunders is now unemployed. Wesley Johnson, Minnesota For the fourth overall pick, Johnson has been a crushing disappointment. While he's a decent wing defender and has suffered from playing out of position as a shooting guard in Minnesota, the underlying big picture is that he's a role player at best. Johnson is already 24 and is neither an elite athlete nor an elite shooter; he's emphatically proving that latter point at the moment by shooting 12-of-48 on 3-pointers. Meanwhile he's earned 10 free throws the entire season and has a shockingly high turnover rate for a secondary offensive player. I'm sure he's a better player than he's shown thus far, but I'm equally sure the Timberwolves should have drafted Greg Monroe or Paul George. Lamar Odom, Dallas This isn't news, obviously, but Odom's decline has been shocking. A Fluke Rule player a year ago, it was clear the out-of-character shooting percentages from a year ago wouldn't hold up. He's actually taking more shots in Dallas than he did in L.A., which is unfortunate given how few of them have gone in -- Odom is shooting just 34.4 percent from the floor. His assist and rebound numbers have cratered, too, and as a result Odom's jarring -10.21 point PER change is the worst in the league this season. If it holds up, in fact, it will be among the worst of all time. We've seen signs of the real Odom lately and one suspects these numbers will move toward the mean in time, but any way you slice it Odom is having a horrific season. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Remember all those positive stories the first week of the season about DeRozan's improved 3-point stroke? That went away fast, huh? DeRozan is indeed shooting slightly better on 3s (12-for-38 after making a total of nine in his first two pro seasons). Unfortunately for the Raptors, he's only making 39.2 percent of his 2s, and for a player whose only redeeming quality is shot creation, that's a major problem. DeRozan's PER has slipped nearly five points in what was supposed to be his breakout year; in additional to the shooting woes, he's turning the ball over more and passing it less than ever. Toney Douglas, New York The hope in New York was that Douglas could be a serviceable point guard until Baron Davis was healthy. Those hopes were crushed like Greg Ostertag's sofa cushions. Douglas was such a disaster at the point that it effectively ended any and all "is he a 1 or a 2?" debates: He's a 2, simply by virtue of his so abjectly not being a 1. Missed shots also played a role in Douglas' demise, as he's shooting 32.3 percent and is at just 23.9 percent on 3s. What makes this worse is that Douglas draws fouls as rarely as any player in basketball, so there are no easy points to offset all the wayward jumpers. At some point he'll make more shots, but his -8.05 point PER decline is among the worst in basketball and has effectively left him unplayable. Jameer Nelson, Orlando Lost in the generally positive start of the Magic's season has been the continued struggles of their point guard. Nelson isn't taking or making many shots; normally a high-percentage mid-range shooter, he's at 40 percent from the floor and 33.3 percent on 3s and averaging just 11.5 points per 40 minutes -- nearly six less than a year earlier. Despite calling his own number less, he's finding opponents more -- his 2.7 turnovers per game are a career high and give him one of the worst turnover rates at his position. As a small guard in his late 20s -- always the danger zone -- the worry is that this decline may be permanent, albeit perhaps not as severe as the early-season numbers make it seem. Monday night's five-point, five-turnover debacle in Boston only fuels that argument. Stephen Jackson, Milwaukee The worst part of Jackson's start was that the Bucks were pretending he was still good -- most notably at the end of the Sacramento game, when they called a Hero Iso play for him that resulted in a bad miss and capped an unlikely Kings comeback. I don't think that will be a problem anymore, now that the Bucks benched him for missing a shootaround and have seen him hit another bad slump. Jackson is 10 for his last 40 from the field and hasn't scratched in two of the past three games. For the season he's at 36.6 percent from the floor and a ghastly 28.8 percent on 3s; even with the league's No. 23 offense, Milwaukee has better options. Of course, the shooting isn't the worst part -- it's the turnovers. Cap'n Jack has the worst turnover ratio of any shooting guard with more than 150 minutes, as he has a high bounce and his lack of zip constantly has him in traffic. Luis Scola, Houston The Rockets are rolling, having won seven straight, which makes you wonder how well they'd do if Scola could ever get untracked. Coming off a career year at age 31, it was fair to expect a bit of decline, but Scola's numbers are way down across the board. Of particular concern is a minuscule 10.3 Rebound Rate; he's lost nearly three boards off his 40-minute rate from a year ago, which itself was a career low. Scola has a rep as a flopper but actually doesn't draw many fouls, and this is another problem: He's taking barely half as many free throw attempts as last season and its dragging his TS% southward. Sum it up and it's more than a five-point decline in PER. Devin Harris, Utah Here's what would worry me about Harris' start: He's stopped drawing fouls, and that was the one differentiating skill he had as a player. Harris averaged nearly six free throws a game each of the past three seasons; this season, he's averaging just 2.7. It signifies a larger problem, which is that he's lost some of the zip that used to propel him to the basket so easily. It's a common malady among guards in their late 20s (Harris is 28), but unfortunately he doesn't have a laser jump shot upon which to fall back. A career 30.6 percent 3-point shooter, it appears Harris faces a difficult adjustment in order to remain viable as a starting point guard. In the meantime, his PER has dipped more than five points and the Jazz are openly shopping him. Jason Kidd, Dallas Not so fast with the chortling, Mavs fans. Harris has been awful, but so has Kidd. Some of his numbers are so shockingly bad they cry out for some alternative explanation, preferably one involving interference from extraterrestrial life forms. Kidd is shooting 26.4 percent from the floor; he's made four 2-point baskets the entire season and has earned only five free throw attempts. That's bad, but the turnovers are worse; Kidd has the worst turnover rate of any starting point guard and some of the miscues have been shockingly juvenile -- most notably when he dropped the ball inbounds at the end of the Utah game and nearly allowed the Jazz a free shot at tying it. John Salmons, Sacramento And saving the worst for last, we go to Salmons, who has the worst PER of any player with at least 400 minutes played. This is doubly impressive because he had an off year the previous season in Milwaukee and figured to bounce back some; instead, his PER has dropped by nearly five more points, which again gives him one of the league's worst declines. Somehow, he's started every game, even though he hasn't made more than half his shots in any of them; he's at 34.5 percent for the season and has made 11-of-51 from 3. While we're here, I'll again mention that the Kings traded down in the draft in order to acquire Salmons and the three years and $25 million remaining on his contract, and they also sent out a pretty decent player (Beno Udrih) who happens to play the one position where the Kings have no players at the moment. Honorable mention: We didn't have room for these guys on our 12-man roster, but you could easily make a good case for Tyrus Thomas, Tayshaun Prince, Raymond Felton, Danny Granger, Nene, Grant Hill, Mehmet Okur, Kendrick Perkins, Metta World Peace, J.J. Hickson, Glen Davis and Deron Williams. Don't think we haven't noticed, fellas.
"As a result, Stoudemire captains my All-Disappointment Team from the first month of the season. Let's take a look at the rest of the roster:"
I don't think they omitted him. The article says that Amare is the captain of the team and the others mentioned are also on it.
Fisher has been playing at the same crappy rate the last few years. Not much of a drop if he's already a disappointment lol
I don't know if the across-the-board stats say anything about this season, but the number of notable players who have fallen off the cliff this year is shocking. These guys aren't just having down years, they've turned into complete garbage on the court.
This is when stat geeks bury their heads in the sand of numbers.... Scola's rebound rate is down because he is playing with a center that rebounds with the best of them (Dalembert is top 25 in the league, top 15 at his position). It's not just about numbers, because I think Lowry benefits from a couple of the rebounds/game Chuck used to get whereas the kinds of rebounding Dalembert does is definitely taking away a couple from Scola. My issue will be when Scola gets worked by young PF like Aldridge and Love and when he isn't knocking down his outside jumper, that's when his age becomes an issue. I noticed yesterday his +/- was negative but I think he was essential in making the clutch baskets that stopped Minnesota's runs at times. Jordan Hill was the only other negative +/- and his was justifiable and easily seen. Jordan Hill is the biggest disappointment on our team IMO.
Luis scola's rebound decline is due to a Haitian center. I love how everyone is throwing him under the bus.
Yao would draw 2-5 double teams a night at a minimum despite a coach's gameplan... that opened Scola up for cuts to the basket for layups and also offensive rebounds. It's not just about X player vs. Y player it's X situation vs. Y situation. I look at Pau Gasol as more disappointing since he has had Andrew Bynum this season.
