I'm starting this thread for BigBigRed, so he can continue to keep us updated on his daily simulations. It was originally started here. I've been lurking for a little while here and wanted to contribute, so I wrote a simulator for the rest of the season of the NBA. I wanted to post my own thread, but apparently, I don't have permission. I figured that this was the most appropriate place to put information. Anyhow, the simulator runs through 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and uses (my understanding of) the NBA tie breakers for positioning and home court advantage. The probability of winning any individual game is based on the relative strengths of the teams playing and who has home court. Note that there is some variability from run to run so I expect some changes after tonight's results even though not many Western contenders are playing. Below are the results for the Rockets (of course, I have them for other teams too). I've tested the simulator and rules lightly so there may be some bugs still, but the results do look reasonable. Please feel free to comment or request additional information. Number of Wins Code: Wins Percent ==== ======= 48 0.1 49 1.1 50 5.9 51 16.3 52 27.7 53 27.4 54 16.0 55 4.9 56 0.6 Place in West Code: Place Percent ===== ======= 2 15.1 3 15.0 4 31.0 5 19.9 6 12.8 7 5.7 8 0.5 Home Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Mavericks 3.0 Nuggets 5.9 Hornets 15.3 Suns 0.0 Blazers 17.0 Spurs 2.7 Jazz 16.1 Away Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Mavericks 0.1 Nuggets 8.5 Lakers 0.5 Hornets 4.3 Blazers 10.8 Spurs 9.4 Jazz 6.2 Percent of Home Court Advantage = 60.1 Last update: Mar 29
nice work. thanks. the numbers seem pretty valid. would be interesting to see predictions/results from say the all-star break. maybe keep this system for next year and start it earlier and see how the results turn out.
I used a formula based on relative strength of teams and home court advantage. It is usually within a couple of percent of the one found on http://www.basketball-reference.com/ but I'd like to calibrate mine better.
Nice work! Can you post the "Place in West" probabilities for the other Western Conference playoff teams?
and the odds of us playing utah is 2nd at 16%, right after por at 17% makes me feel a lot better thanks for stats!
I've incorporated some of the suggestions you guys have made. The results are pretty close to Hollingers although I think he weights recent games more heavily than I do. Let me know if you have any other comments or suggestions. Enjoy! Number of Wins Code: Wins Percent ==== ======= 48 0.1 49 1.1 50 6.1 51 16.4 52 27.6 53 27.3 54 15.9 55 4.9 56 0.7 Place in West Code: Place Percent ===== ======= 2 15.3 3 14.5 4 30.6 5 19.7 6 12.7 7 6.8 8 0.5 Home Court Advantage Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 16.5 Jazz 16.0 Hornets 15.0 Nuggets 5.7 Mavericks 3.0 Spurs 3.0 Suns 0.0 Away (No Home Court Advantage) Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 10.4 Spurs 9.7 Nuggets 8.8 Jazz 7.1 Hornets 4.1 Lakers 0.5 Mavericks 0.1 Combined Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 26.9 Jazz 23.1 Hornets 19.1 Nuggets 14.6 Spurs 12.7 Mavericks 3.1 Lakers 0.5 Suns 0.0 Percent of Home Court Advantage = 59.2 Percent of Division Win = 24.6 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.9 Spurs 53.8 Nuggets 53.3 Rockets 52.4 Blazers 51.7 Jazz 50.9 Hornets 50.5 Mavericks 48.3 Suns 45.1 Western Conference Placement Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 40.3 32.1 13.4 8.6 4.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 34.4 34.7 14.7 9.7 5.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 15.3 14.5 30.6 19.7 12.7 6.8 0.5 0.0 Blazers 0.0 5.6 7.9 20.4 23.3 22.6 16.3 3.9 0.0 Jazz 0.0 2.7 7.2 13.0 23.1 27.5 22.6 3.8 0.0 Hornets 0.0 1.7 3.5 7.5 14.0 23.7 38.6 10.8 0.1 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.2 12.9 71.9 9.0 Suns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.1 90.9 Latest NBA results used: Mar 30
Thanks for your great analysis, BigBigRed. Could this thread be sticky? If it couldn't, I suggest merging this thread with ScriboErgoSum's thread so that we don't need to search this thread every day. I don't know why, I have a feeling that we will meet Utah Jazz in 1st round again this year. But if we really do, I think we have a better chance to beat them as we have a better team this year.
I just checked; my simulator matches Hollinger's exactly in terms of the estimated number of wins for the Western Conference contenders.
