I'm surprised nobody's done one of these yet. We're less than a month out. If there was a ever a time for predictions it's now. So what's yours?
I think Obama's reasonable bottom is 306 (that has him losing OH, FL, MO, IN). I think his reasonable top is 375, in which he wins each of those states. But neither of those is his absolute top or bottom. I think he could wind up slightly higher or lower. Obviously he could lose NV. That's a fairly close one. He could also, obviously, lose NC. I don't see any way right now that he loses VA or CO (let alone McCain's fantasy pickups of PA, MN or WI). So I put his absolute bottom at 286. But the way things are going, it would not surprise me if he ran the table and added WV (where he's polling ahead in a likely unreliable poll) and GA (where things have tightened up to about 3% in the very latest reads). That puts his absolute top, IMO, at 395. I'm making an optimistic prediction here that he runs the battleground states and winds up at 375.
My high would be 369 but the prediction I posted above is more conservative and gives McCain N. Carolina, W. Virginia, Indiana, and Missouri with Obama taking Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.
Fair enough I guess. But I'm actually more confident in Obama taking NC than FL or OH. Once (or twice) bitten, twice (or three times) shy I guess. Also, there is a much greater x-factor in NC with the black vote. Not so in FL/OH. And his averages in NC have been more promising, and on a more promising trend than in FL/OH. It seems weird to me that anyone's "high" would be 369 when Obama's would be at 380 if he ran the table on states where he's ahead, tied or behind by less than 2 points.
Incidentally, I think the very absolute fantasty best Obama could do is 477. Fantasy best for McCain is 348. Neither of those scenarios will play out, but if you imagine things going crazy good for either candidate those are the numbers you arrive at. And, even in best possible case scenarios (I'm giving McCain PA, MN, WI, IA, MI, NH - none of which are swing states anymore - and every legit swing state here), McCain's still down over 100 over similar fantasy for Obama (in which he gets the above plus MT, ND, SD, SC, TX, AZ, LA, MS, TX, AZ - all states in which he has polled at one point or another less than 8% down). Bottom line: McCain would need a better than perfect storm to run the swing states (almost every one of which he's now losing badly). If he got that perfect storm, he would still lose. This is over.
BTW, I have no real beef with anyone saying they're going to damn the torpedoes and vote McCain. What blows my mind is that anybody could still think he had a chance of winning.
It's just a gut feeling, Batman... Not trying to be a "true believer" or anything. I don't think the race is over, that's all. BTW- Your party is going to be fun either way... Yay, America!
Here is a good place to play with the map: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10 Click on a state if you want to change it one way or the other. I took their map and changed NC, OH, and FL to McCain to get: 291 - Obama 247 - McCain
Oops. That is almost exactly what I did. I moved NV, and CO to Obama. I moved WV, and IN as well as those you mentioned to McCain.
Obama 277 McCain 261 I flipped Florida, Ohio, North Carolina (sadly, I know that state too well. It's going McCain in the end), Nevada, and Colorado. Batman, I think 375 is an absolute, out-of-reach fantasy, but we'll see. And I believe poll data (edit) ARE more outdated and irrelevant than ever, as it's been left behind, technology wise. I hope you are right; it would be great to have a national election not be slim and controversial.
338 - Obama 200 - McCain I gave McCain Nevada and Missouri. The rest I'm picking along with Electoral-vote.com from today, which looks pretty good to me. My gut says Obama wins North Carolina and Nevada, and loses Forida, just because Florida has been such a pisser in the past. Still a huge victory for Barack, if I went by my gut. As I've been saying, a electoral landslide and a much closer popular vote... within 3% or less.
How reliable is electoral-vote.com? Right now they have some questionable states, in my opinion, leaning or favoring Obama. North Dakota? West Virginia?
If you believe the Bradley effect will change this race, then McCain would win with a 6% swing. If the stock market turns around and rallies, people may forget about the economy and think about race.
