Elections in Turkey Could Pave Way for U.S. Troops

Elections in Turkey Could Pave Way for U.S. Troops
Sunday, March 09, 2003

ANKARA, Turkey — Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a seat in parliament Sunday, a crucial victory that paves the way for him to become prime minister and strengthens his hand toward uniting the government on allowing in U.S. troops for an Iraq war.

The charismatic Erdogan -- already the nation's de facto leader -- has advocated the U.S. troop deployment in Turkey, and analysts say one of his first moves as premier could be to purge ministers who oppose it.

Prime Minister Abdullah Gul is expected to resign Wednesday to make way for Erdogan to take over the government, after Erdogan's Justice and Development Party overwhelmingly won balloting in the southern town of Siirt. Town officials said Justice captured 84.7 percent of the final vote count.

It was unclear when parliament would be ready to take up a new resolution on U.S. troop deployment, after lawmakers failed to approve a resolution last week.

Turkish media say a vote could come as early as Thursday, but members of the Justice Party said it could be two weeks before a new government is in place.

Erdogan's election was likely to end some of the confusion within the Turkish government. Gul is head of the administration, but the Erdogan leads the ruling party and is widely regarded as the power behind the scenes. It was Erdogan whom President Bush invited to the White House after Turkey's national elections in November.

Some analysts say those muddled lines of authority contributed to the failure of the resolution last week by a mere four votes in the 550-seat parliament -- despite Justice's huge majority of 362 seats.

Erdogan had been barred from running in November national elections because of a conviction for inciting religious hatred over a poem he read at a rally in Siirt, 60 miles north of the Iraqi border.

Justice lawmakers changed the constitution after the national vote to allow Erdogan to run for office Sunday.

"In the November elections, the person who was the prime minister in our hearts was not able to become a deputy. This week this mistake, this shame is being rectified," said Deputy Prime Minister Ertugrul Yalcinbayir.

The vote comes as Washington pressures Turkey to allow in U.S. combat troops to open a northern front against neighboring Iraq in a possible war. Ships carrying equipment for the soldiers are already off the Turkish coast, and it was unclear how long Washington could wait for a Turkish decision.

Erdogan has hinted he will soon resubmit a troop deployment motion. Although the Turkish public is overwhelmingly against a war, Erdogan urged legislators after the failed vote to act "not to satisfy their daily emotions but toward the country's future."

Rebuffing the United States risks straining ties with Washington and losing a say in the future of neighboring Iraq -- as well as a $15 billion U.S. aid package offered in exchange for hosting U.S. troops.

"Recep Tayyip Erdogan's test in Siirt will determine the fate of the motion," Enis Berberoglu wrote in the Hurriyet newspaper. "If a result that pleases the (Justice party) emerges from the elections, then Erdogan's hand will be strengthened."

The newspaper reported Saturday that Erdogan plans to sack four ministers who opposed the deployment, reducing the number of ministers from 24 to 20.

During Gul's premiership, Erdogan strongly influenced policy, and Cabinet ministers -- including Gul -- often consulted Erdogan after key meetings.

Although Erdogan urged legislators to vote for the first failed resolution, his words are likely to have a stronger impact once he is in office.

"It is one thing to run a government by remote control and another to sit in the prime minister's seat," said Ilnur Cevik, editor in chief of the Turkish Daily News.

"Gul knew he was a transition prime minister and exerting your will on the party is very hard if you are a lame duck prime minister," Cevik said.

The Siirt by-elections were scheduled after Turkey's election board ruled that a ballot box there had been tampered with during the national vote.