Too busy to look up the other thread… Obama Edges Ahead In The National Polls Barack Obama has now edged into a narrow lead in most of the national polls released today, suggesting John McCain's bounce may be subsiding after he had been leading over the last week and a half. First, here's our daily roundup of the four major national tracking polls: • Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error. McCain had a one-point lead yesterday, and this is the first time in a week and a half that Obama has been ahead. • Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 45%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, not significantly changed from yesterday's 46%-42% margin for Obama. • Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama has a narrow lead of 46.9% to McCain's 45.6%. The two were essentially tied yesterday, and two days ago McCain had a roughly one-point lead. On top of that, Obama has grabbed a 47%-45% lead in the new Zogby poll of likely voters, with a ±3.1% margin of error. In Zogby's last poll from a month ago -- which was something of an outlier at the time, mind you -- McCain had a 46%-41% lead. http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/
Now the polls mean something again, now that Obama has seemingly lurched ahead in the national polls (but within the margin of error)... Funny how the libs only give credit to the polls when Obama is ahead. He's still getting whooped in the battleground states.
Obama to spend $39 million in Florida. http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/obama_campaign_manager_vows_to.php That's a lot of cash... Old people love to hear about market crashes and privatizing Social Security. Sure to put some pressure on McCain.
Basically it's a tossup at this point, with McCain holding the momentum. Still a long way to go, but the election will be decided by the following states. I think they end up like: Ohio - McCain Pennsylvania - Obama New Hampshire - Obama Virginia - McCain Florida - Mccain Colorado - Obama New Mexico - Obama Nevada - Obama
I still don't care about national poll (see Gore) While Obama is still ahead in the electoral map (286 to 252) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10 It is a lot closer than it had been. (I love that Obama is losing Florida and Ohio and yet still winning.)
And I thought Mc Mark was above posting meaningless poll threads (that's my territory). I guess I was wrong.
I was an English major so statistics aren't my thing, is there a reason you prefer realclearpolitics to http://electoral-vote.com/?
Despite my terrible posts, I have a degree in English. I hated the statistics course when I was a business major. I don't use http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ either. A better question would be, why did I first use the RCP? I'm honestly not sure why. I think it was just a link, and I've gone there ever since. I could use all 3, but I really don't care that much. I could switch, but I'd need a reason to know why I should switch. RCP previously had a substantial lead for Obama; now it is down to a large state switching, for Obama to lose. (Ridiculously close atm compared to landslide not that long ago.) I like that I know the history of the site, and have been able to follow along w/ the McCain increase. Is there a reason you prefer electoral-vote?
The daily polls are very good for tracking trends. They don't predict the election winner unless one candidate is significantly ahead of the other. I don't know if I believe Obama will spend $39MM in Florida alone. That may be a feint by Mr. Plouffe. Or maybe it's a mis-quote. I don't think it's possible. As most of us knew, the Palin bounce would wear off and the trend is back to Obama. One thing that should concern Dems is that Obama is not a good front-runner. Just like I said back in June, the GOP has more tricks left that will bounce things towards McCain. Obama and his people need to start their closing rush by the end of September and run hard and furious to November 4th. They must continue hitting McCain on the issues, put him on the defensive and not pull back. At this point, he should fight to frame this election in terms of the economy. If Obama does that, the game is over. If he doesn't, it opens the door for Steve Schmidt to define things another way. The GOP is usually good at closing runs but McCain/Palin doesn't give them much to work with. With his cash hoard, Obama's campaign has no excuse for letting it slip away.
This won't help his numbers... Obama claims McCain "doesn't get" the middle class common worker, then promptly goes to a $28,500 per plate fund raiser in.... Hollywood. While McCain stays and talks to workers. Texans rebuilding their lives while Obama and Hollywood partied By Judi McLeod Wednesday, September 17, 2008 Since they can’t politicize the human misery left by Hurricane Ike as they did in Katrina, election-bound politicians and their Hollywood fellow traveling dogs, ignore it. Their silence about the large scale human suffering in coastal Texas is one interrupted only by popping champagne corks and laughter. Difficult to believe that during the idle chatter of the idle elite at the $28,500-a-plate fundraiser for Barack Obama last night, legions of Texans still didn’t know when they would have a hot meal or even a bath. Obama’s Hollywood fawning cabal is the same blame-America clique who seems to delight in the criticism sent America’s way. Hatred of America by an outside world is their shameful legacy. As a Canada Free Press letter writer pointed out last night, “When a disaster occurs ANYWHERE in the world, the United States is ALWAYS the first to offer assistance. Name ONE country that offered any help to the Americans struck by this disaster!” The gala dinner at Greystone Mansion, followed by entertainment at the nearby Regent Beverly Wilshire Hotel was taking place even as volunteers were scrambling to find more food and water for Hurricane Ike victims in shelters. Electricity for most in Houston wasn’t expected back on for at least another week. People waited in line for hours Tuesday at nearly two dozen supply distribution centers set up to hand out food, water and ice. Authorities worked to fend off a health-care crisis. This is not even to mention the thousands of other Americans who lost their homes in the ongoing mortgage crisis, or those losing jobs in an unstable economy. Back at Greystone Mansion, Obama spent more than an hour before dinner preening for the camera with guests. He told reporters that people had encouraged him to be tougher and had questioned whey he was so calm in a close race against Republican John McCain. "I’m skinny but I’m tough,” he said. "I’m from Chicago and we don’t play. Just keep steady.” Incredibly, on this of all nights he could joke with the elite, and even more incredibly they laughed. Saying that the economic turmoil of recent days had been sobering for America, he said: “It’s reminded people that this is not a game. This is not a reality show, no offense to any of you” and to laughter, “This is not a sitcom.” In the face of all the human suffering, Obama, with the help of Oscar-winning singer and actress Barbra Streisand raised what myway.com calls “an eye-popping $9 million for his presidential campaign and the Democratic Party. None of the $9 million raised will go to some of those who lost everything to Ike or the floundering economy. Last night was a 21st century tableau of Nero’s fiddling while Rome burned. --- What's the excuse on this article, libs? Canadian right-wing conspiracy?
McCain meets GOP Hollywood at fundraiser by Mosheh Oinounou Aug 25, 2008 BEVERLY HILLS, CA — McCain attended a fundraiser at the Beverly Hills Hilton Monday night, which included a number of Hollywood Republicans, capping off a $4.7 million, two-event day in the Golden State ---------- Are you just jealous that Obama raised double what Mccain did?
Pretty sure Canada is America, as touted by most libs... Which is it? You're the one who seems to not care in this case. Hmmmm... BTW- When have I ever indicated I didn't care what "foreigners" think? Pretty sure, in left logic, adjoining states and countries are hardly even out-of-town. So this is a positive in your circles.
People pop-off quite regularly in here that America is not just the US... Folks from Central and South, and other North American continent countries... No confusion there.
Offtopic (no great loss there), but this article reminds me of a Ike-related pet peeve. People talking up the human suffering here or comparing it to a war-zone need to get a little more realistic. Yes, we've had some suffering. We've had some deaths, homes destroyed, etc. But, on the scale of human suffering for southeast Texas at large, we're registering maybe a 2. We don't even hold a candle to the suffering in New Orleans after Katrina, which was smaller in number of people but more intense (more deaths, more displacement, more days without services, more heat, more flooding, more sense that the government had failed them, more sense that the country resented them and turned our backs on them, etc.). And, even that doesn't register too high on the scale of human suffering. So, is the world supposed to stop because we got walloped by a hurricane that we were relatively well-prepared for and are quickly recovering from? The city is already getting back to work, and I hope the rest of the country didn't stop on our account. It makes me feel like a dandy to have people swooning over my little hardships. Watch Hotel Rwanda and then tell me Houston is suffering.
