http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/edwards-eyes-a-brokered-convention-2008-01-29.html Edwards eyes a brokered convention By Alexander Bolton Posted: 01/29/08 12:01 AM [ET] Former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) has his sights set on playing kingmaker at the Denver convention in August, one of his most senior campaign officials hinted Monday. While dismissing suggestions that this implied Edwards had accepted he was out of contention for the nomination, Deputy Campaign Manager Jonathan Prince said the candidate would probably get enough delegates to play a decisive role in tipping the Democratic nomination under party rules. Party insiders could also give Edwards the nomination at a brokered convention if they judged him more electable in a match-up against GOP front-runner Sen. John McCain (Ariz.). “At a brokered convention, all bets are off,” said Prince. Prince told reporters in a conference call that in “a worst-case scenario” Edwards would control 20 to 25 percent of the Democratic delegates heading into the convention. He predicted that Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) would each have 35 to 40 percent of the delegates, well short of half the 4,049 needed to win the nomination. The race could leave Obama and Clinton with nearly the same number of delegates because complex rules would divide delegates evenly among candidates who win more than 30 percent in the congressional districts that make up each state. Spokesmen for the Obama and Clinton campaigns did not respond to requests for comment. Many political observers believe that if Edwards had the power to pick the Democratic nominee and could not grab the nomination for himself, he would throw his support to Obama. During a memorable exchange at a Democratic debate in New Hampshire this month, Edwards sided with Obama as a fellow candidate of change and drew a sharp contrast with Clinton, whom he has labeled a candidate of the status quo. Prince argued that since nearly 800 of the delegates are so-called superdelegates and thus not bound by the results of any state primary or caucus, a candidate would have to get 60 percent of all the delegates in play to be assured of the nomination. Prince said that Obama or Clinton would have to win nearly 80 percent of the vote in many congressional districts around the country in order to win the nomination outright — a difficult achievement considering how competitive the race has been so far. Edwards’s campaign manager, David Bonior, said on a conference call with reporters, “We have a great shot to pick up a lot of delegates.” But he refused to say on the conference call how Edwards would wield his delegates: “We’re not going to talk about how we’re going to use our delegates.” Stephen Wayne, a political science professor at Georgetown University who specializes in presidential primary politics, said Edwards could help decide the nomination “If Obama and Clinton come out even after Super Tuesday and Edwards had 50 delegates, Edwards could make a difference if [superdelegates] are split,” said Wayne. “Edwards is not going to drop out if he can have an impact.” At the Democratic convention this August, delegates will be allowed to vote freely even if they are already pledged to a candidate, Wayne explained. But he expected that Edwards’s delegates would do his bidding. Wayne said that Edwards’s delegates have been “hand-picked” because of their loyalty. “That loyalty would probably extend to the convention, though Democrats have a rule that would not impose loyalty,” he explained. Wayne, however, predicted that either Clinton or Obama would probably wrap up the nomination before the convention, but conceded “anything is possible.” The scenario of a brokered convention could unfold in the GOP race, though analysts consider it less likely because most of the Republican primary states allocate all delegates to the winner. Unlike at the Democratic convention, Republican candidates would control the delegates pledged to them and could give support directly to a rival. If either former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) or McCain, the candidates leading in the delegate count, fail to open up a commanding lead before the convention, one of their rivals could have a decisive influence. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) has seven delegates to his name and could capture more by winning in Southern states where evangelical Christians make up a large percentage of the electorate. While many states allocate all their Republican delegates to the statewide winner, several do so proportionally, opening a door for Huckabee or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to pick up more votes. In Alabama, for example, if no candidate wins more than half the vote, each receives delegates provided he wins at least 20 percent. In Arkansas, where Huckabee can expect a strong performance, delegates are also assigned based on voting percentages if no candidate wins with more than half. In Florida, delegates go to any candidate who wins one of the state’s 25 congressional districts. Giuliani is likely to pick up delegates in Florida and could also win New York and New Jersey depending on his performance Tuesday in the Sunshine State. If Huckabee or Giuliani stays in the race long enough to be able to wield delegates at the GOP convention in September, yet has no chance of winning the nomination, many political analysts expect either would support McCain. Despite the competitive primary, both candidates have maintained cordial relations with McCain while fighting bitterly with Romney
Giuliani is out after Florida. He's broke, no new money is coming in, and it's winner-take-all, so he'll be done. In my brief time campaigning, many officials in the Republican Party think we're heading to brokered convention on that side as well. There it's even more wide open. If states go how they project to go, and the top 4 stay in, Romney should lead in delegates at the convention, but with less than 40% or so. None of the other candidates like Romney, so him picking up a significant number of their delegates is unlikely. Don't be too surprised if someone sees this, takes advantage of it, and jumps in at the last minute. Romney could play kingmaker by asking his delegates to support someone more popular than himself.
I think if Romney wins today, that could definitely be the case. If McCain wins today, it's over. He has pretty substantive leads in virtually all the states on Super Tuesday, and would have all the momentum. And, since the GOP gives a lot more credit to the winner as opposed to proportional delegation, it's hard to split delegates unless lots of people actually win, rather than stay close. If Edwards can keep getting 10-20% of the vote, he could definitely be a king/queenmaker, especially if Obama and Hillary split Super Tuesday pretty evenly and neither comes out with momentum. Supposedly, Edwards has already talked to both campaigns, and rumors are that Obama has offered him the Attny General spot - no idea if that's true or not. But barring a huge turnaround on Super Tuesday, Obama's most likely path to the nomination is securing Edwards' support.
There’s one more big endorsement out there that’s being overlooked. Bill Richardson I think he would have an enormous impact whoever picks him up.
Funny you say that - I was just reading an article about it: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/29/richardsons_choice.html He says he hasn't decided, but if he does endorse, it will be this week (which makes sense - after, it's worthless). Based on the article's content, I suspect if he does get involved, he would ultimately endorse Obama, but who knows how complete that article is.
If there's a brokered Dem convention, it'll be Al. If there's a brokered GOP convention, who do they turn to? Cheney?
I tend to agree to some extent. I'm not sure tort reform is terribly important (the amount of frivolous cases is miniscule), but I'm not a fan of Edwards as AG in general. But Obama might not have much choice. Labor Secretary might be a better fit, but I'm not sure how much Edwards wants that!
Actually there's a factor that everyone is missing, the DNC and RNC. The Supreme Court (I forgot the actual case) ruled a while back that national parties have full authority to oversee the nomination process. In response, the national parties basically delegated that authority back to the states, hence the current primary/caucus system. However, the DNC and RNC currently have their own delegates (known as superdelegates) that they send to their conventions. I believe the DNC controls roughly 1/5 or 1/4 (cant remember) of the delegates at the democratic convention, meaning the national party could actually tip the balance. And who knows what the democratic and republican establishment supports in terms of a candidate. It will definitely be interesting to see.
The RNC doesn't have nearly as many, but the DNC has about 800 (you need 2000 total to win). But the thing about this is that they tend to be relatively spineless and just like to support the winner. They could very well tip the balance, but there's also a pretty good chance they'll be fairly equally split between Obama and Clinton. Right now, it's something like 200 support Clinton and 110 support Obama (none of these are hard and fast commitments). These include all the members of Congress, the governors, and a bunch of other random people. It certainly is a little talked about part of this, though - and will be interesting to see how it plays out as the contest goes on. The "establishment" seems pretty evenly split right now in their endorsements.
Romney is going to win Florida significantly, and he might win New York. New York is McCain's only chance to win a closed primary outright. McCain is the media darling, and he runs well among independents, undecideds, and nonvoters, but registered Republicans know his record and don't vote for him.
If Romney does win Florida, this definitely becomes a race. It's similar to the Obama-Clinton thing in that scenario. McCain has virtually all the leads in all the polls nationwide, but Romney would have momentum and money. The question is how much can Romney make up in a week - same as Obama's situation. He's also down about 15-20 pts in many states. Also interesting will be what Rudy's leftover 10-15% supporters do if he drops out. As a non-traditional strong national-defense conservative, they may lean more towards McCain. Huckabee supporters are another question - they may lean more towards Romney. But Romney absolutely has to win today - even if its by 1%. The last 20 or so polls all show them within 2%. If you're right about the non-voters, that's a good sign for Romney.
I don't have a problem with some kind of tort reform, but what has been done has been a throw the baby out with the bathwater plan.
