Yeah, but it hasn't rained in Houston for 4 weeks. And on Monday they were saying we were going to get soaked....now they're saying we will be lucky to get half an inch. Seems like that's how it always goes. Hope I'm wrong and it POURS all over my lawn today!
Yes you do. Went to Canyon of the Eagles in March. I was blown away at how low Lake Buchanan is now. Makes you wonder if it would ever be full again. It's been drizzling in Round Rock all morning. Really need a good soak today and tomorrow.
It's going to take another freak weather event like the '07 22" in 24 hours floods to even put a dent in Travis and Buchanan. Haven't been to that part of the lake in 5 years or so, it used to be so pretty.
I can't remember it being so dry up here in D/FW during Spring. It's really, really bad. They've got us on two days a week watering lawns but I'm thinking that is going to go to once a week or worse unless we get some heavy doses of rain. Some of the lake levels up here are just so ridiculously low...they may just become pits in a few more years, e.g. Lake Bridgeport.
I'd say the water was 1/2 mile from the dock at Canyon. With the vegetation growth, it appears there hasn't been water there for years. Still pretty...but depressing, too.
Hopefully with the predicted El Nino forming, which some are saying could be the largest El Nino ever, we'll get that dip in the jet stream which will pull a lot of rain our way throughout the year, which is what happens with pretty much all El Nino's as far a precipitation in our area. La Nina can go f herself.
Pretty coincidental. These maps are released on Thursday's. We haven't had a strong Nino since the 90s. So it has been a while. That Jet stream dip is exactly where this rain is coming from (as well as the moisture from the tropical wave off of the Mexican coast). IT would be nice if we can get a big time rain event out of it. The only other thing about El Nino years are the Hurricanes. 04-05 as well as 09-10 were El Nino years.
El Nino tends to work AGAINST hurricane development in the Gulf: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/enso.rxml http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/elnino/ It is now well-accepted that El Niño reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin
I'm in the process of buying a house on "lake travis" that is dry now that I couldn't afford if the lake was full... so after closing later this month I'll be ready for a storm to come fill it back up.
That depends on how strong El Nino is as well as the type of El Nino. If this becomes a Modoki (EP El Nino as opposed to the CP El Nino) then watch out. While I do agree a typical El Nino (which we really haven't observed in the past 20 years) does reduce the threat of them MAKING LANDFALL due to the way the jet stream is set up, it doesn't reduce the amount that can form. The site you posted shows a drop off of about 1 per category. That is nothing to write home about. The years I posted were weak/moderate Modoki El Nino years. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en You do remember how many hurricanes we had in 04-05 right? 2005 Was Record Breaking in terms of the amount of storms that formed. Even 2009, (which this years El Nino has a chance to surpass as we are already sitting at 65% chance of a strong ENSO and the Current average SST anomaly temp estimate is at 0.75ºC) we still had 14 named storms in the Atlantic, with 2 being major hurricanes. Two tropical storms also made landfall in the GOM.
