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DRIBBLE AROUND, DRIBBLE AROUND = BACK IT IN, BACK IT IN

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by JR, Nov 8, 2000.

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  1. JR

    JR Member

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    I have to admit I was caught up in the excitement of the finish to the 99/2000 season and fully expected a playoff berth this year. I certainly haven't given up, but it has been distressing so far to see that for all the talk of the new Rudy and the new offense, all he has really done is invert the tired Barkley offense.

    FACT: 80% of the time Barkley got the ball, he ran off a solid 6 to 10 seconds of the shot clock, most of which the other players spent standing around.

    MORE DISTURBING FACT: 80% of the time Cuttino, and what is even more depressing, Steve, get the ball, they run off a solid 6 to 10 seconds of the shot clock, most of which the other players spend standing around.

    EVEN MORE DISTURBING FACT: Cuttino in particular has shown an unbelievable tendency to hold the ball on the outside while being DOUBLE TEAMED!!, still dribbling time off the clock. I honestly cannot believe what I have seen so far, but it cannot be ignored. He is willfully refusing to swing the ball and find the open man, who must exist somewhere unless my 5-1=4 and 5-2=3 math is "fuzzy."

    POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS:
    1. The players are ignoring Rudy and doing whatever they want.
    2. Rudy prefers an offense that only utilizes 8 seconds of the 24-second clock, and, strangely, the more pressurized last 8 seconds at that.
    3. Rudy believes that games are won and lost by virtue of illegal defense calls and resulting technical foul shouts.
    4. The other players besides Cuttino / Steve are not making the proper picks, cuts, or weakside rolls to the basket.
    5. The rash of injuries has destroyed any concept and/or possibility of a team offense.
    6. Cato's absence in particular has hurt Mobley's offense as he typically received at least two dunks per game off Mobley drive/dishes.

    CONCLUSIONS
    I need some help here, but I am going to attempt to draw some conclusions.
    1. Rudy seems to have a bizarre desire to drain time off the shot clock, as evidenced by the distinct similarities between the Barkley offense and the Mobley/Francis offense.
    2. Mobley's strong desire to perform leads him to hesitate when swinging the ball to the open man out of the top-o-the-key double team is clearly the correct option.
    3. Unfortunately, it seems as though Rudy's biggest flaw -- which is on the court planning and decision-making, that is, the duties most typically associated with the job of "coach" -- is again rearing its ugly head. Rudy is a "player's coach", which is a euphemism for "pushover." Players love him, as evidenced by the reactions of numerous Olympic team members. His coaching methods typically do not take full advantage of the talent at his disposal, as evidenced by the performance of the Olympic team.
    4. While the Rockets will occasionally win a game based on superior defensive effort and performance (witness last night vs. LA), they are not talented enough defensively and do not have the inside stopper to do this on a frequent basis, thus requiring a well-above-average offense in order to win consistently.

    SUGGESTIONS
    1. Short term, i.e. this season: more variety on offense. Start the offense by going down low. I know HP talks a lot about the success rates of various plays, and one thing that I believe, though cannot prove, is that the offense has been far more successful when it has started with a pass to the low post, whether Taylor or Olajuwon. Frankly I would like to see the Rockets take advantage of the frequent mismatches that Shandon has on the offensive end and post him up. Mobley occasionally as well. In addition, and I thankfully saw some of it in the first half of the Laker game, take advantage of our big men's shooting by getting them the ball at the high post / elbow.
    2. Long term: I don't know the structure of the Rockets' coaching staff (although I agree that Keith Jones seems to have an awful lot to do with everything -- why does a trainer / player liason need a clipboard, and what is he writing on it??), but Rudy needs help on the offensive end. The talent is there, but this is a team that needs to maximize the number of trips up and down the court. Steve, Cuttino, Shandon, Cato -- all these guys have more energy than they know what to do with. The Rockets need to play to this strength and wear out opponents, and wasting 6 to 10 seconds off the shot clock on a consistent basis will kill this team. That was actually somewhat desirable although incredibly boring with the rocking chair teams of the late 90s. Whether this means Rudy needs to go or needs to be convinced to take on help, I don't know. Rudy is valuable in many ways but game strategy does not appear to be one of them (don't even get me started on his substitution patterns).


    I realize it is early, but I can promise you all one thing -- the Rockets will not hold the Lakers to 74 points again any time soon. Had the Lakers had any clue on offense last night, the Rockets would have been run out of the building.


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    #1 JR, Nov 8, 2000
  2. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Good post. I agree with a lot. I would say one big difference between this and Barkley is less 3ptrs..which is good to me. I think the main difference between you and I is I have a little more patience.

    I have been watching the Suns tape. The Suns run motion great, and constantly, but that is extremely hard to sustain because NBA defenses are designed to deny motion.

    I am looking for Rudy to limit the 2 Shakes, 3 ptrs, and all this dribbling as well. And I see signs of attempts to infuse new plays that you ask for. But getting to where the Suns are will take time.

    JR...let's keep looking. But I wouldn't reinvent Mobley anytime soon if I were Rudy.
     
    #2 heypartner, Nov 8, 2000
  3. ZRB

    ZRB Member

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    I especially agree with you when it comes to Rudy's substitution patterns. I am so sick of the Bullard-Thomas-Norris-Mobley-Collier lineup.

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    2000-2001 Rockets Game Formulas:
    End of 1st quarter: "They're playing so well!"
    2nd: "What a great game!"
    3rd: "Theres no way they can lose now!"
    4th: "What the ******* **** happened?!!"
    Recount! Recount! Recount!......
    Rocket's Championship 2001!!
     
    #3 ZRB, Nov 8, 2000
  4. JR

    JR Member

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    HP -- good points. One clarification that I want to make is that I am more anti-Rudy than anti-Mobley. I think Mobley has the talent -- and the confidence -- to be a star. I like having Mobley and Francis key the offense; I'm just looking for less time-wasting. Within reason, the more shots the Rockets get off, the better they are going to be. Holding the ball (a) limits possessions and therefore shot attempts as well as number of times up and down the court (b) decreases the percentage of quality, open looks and (c) increases turnovers, or at least turnovers per possession.

    I'm willing to have patience with Mobley, but I'm running out of patience with Rudy because I think the Rockets have clearly taken a step backward in their collective offensive development. And I think Shandon is under-utilized, especially in the post (he should get 4 or 5 designed post-ups per game).

    As far as the substitutions, my main problem is that Rudy doesn't sub enough. The Rockets have a bunch of young, athletic bodies that can run. He should keep them fresh and aggressive with more frequent subs. In particular, Carlos should get more PT, whether as a small center when reasonable or in place of, say, Bullard.


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    #4 JR, Nov 9, 2000
  5. jamcracker

    jamcracker Member

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    You're right JR. We end up with Francis/Mobley isolations very often. More often, I'd say, then other teams. I'm hoping Rudy builds these isolations into the offense as a safety net.

    Look at last night's Laker game. You remember a stretch in the 4th quarter where we didn't get any decent shots off and the Lakers went on a run? Listen to the AP's recap:
    That 11-4 Laker run, that stretch where we didn't get any decent shots, was the stretch where we WEREN'T running ISOs.

    Francis ran an ISO with 5:07 remaining. That was the ONLY ISO between 6:20 and 1:35 remaining in the 4th. 6:20 to 1:35 was when the Lakers made their run. We weren't getting shots because the Lakers were playing great defense (or the offense wasnt working), and without the ISO as a safety net, we couldn't even put up a decent shot.

    Made Rudy should devise a completely new and different offense right here in the middle of the season. Or maybe we should just try to get better at running the offense, so we don't rely on the ISO to bail us out so often.

    At least when we ISO, we get a decent shot off. Of the 27 ISOs last night, only 4 resulted in turnovers. The others resulted in shots. When we didn't ISO in the 4th quarter last night, we had to scramble just to throw shots up before the buzzer.
     
    #5 jamcracker, Nov 9, 2000
  6. AT

    AT Member

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    Another FIRE RUDY post? Come on. We've only played 5 games with one win over the defending champs under our belts.

    A little patience JR please...

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    "That's two years, Two rings, and I'm thinkin' about going for another one...YEAH!!" --S. Cassel
     
    #6 AT, Nov 9, 2000
  7. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    wow jamcracker,

    I've never seen such a fact-ifying recap. That has to be the most statistically revealing post I have ever read.

    Oh,,,and by the way,,,welcome to full membership. Now you start getting the Clutch newsletters and direct mailers from The Rocket's Store.
     
    #7 heypartner, Nov 9, 2000
  8. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Look,

    I don't care if it is ugly or not, as long as we WIN.

    Winning is the only thing that matters.

    Now, that being said, I would like to see some more diversity, so that when teams figure out how to stop the ISO...like Minnesota did, then we can go to something else.

    DaDakota

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    If Mankind evolved from Monkeys and Apes, then why are there still Monkeys and apes?
     
    #8 DaDakota, Nov 9, 2000
  9. Tb-Cain

    Tb-Cain Member

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    [This message has been edited by Tb-Cain (edited November 09, 2000).]
     
    #9 Tb-Cain, Nov 9, 2000
  10. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    DaDakota,

    It is often the other way around. Teams are more likely to deny general ball movement and our other plays than ISO. Both Verse and Jamcraker have validated this.

    jamcracker's stats have indicated that when teams figure out how to stop motion and other set plays, we tend towards ISOs, and often in the same 24-sec clock. Witness the fact we don't use ISOs much in the 1st Q, except for Mo.

    Don't take this as advocacy for ISOs; I'm far from that. But, there is a strong arument that Rudy uses ISOs when coordinated movement is not working.

    <font size="1"><font color=">

    [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited November 09, 2000).]
     
    #10 heypartner, Nov 9, 2000
  11. JR

    JR Member

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    good post jamcracker. the 4th quarter numbers are very interesting. Two things: 1) I am not in favor of bagging the ISO; on the contrary, it should be an integral part of the offense. 2) what I'm calling the DRIBBLE AROUND, DRIBBLE AROUND is not necessarily the same as an 'ISO'. If I were better at some of those emoticons I might be able to construct a venn diagram, but the dribbles include all the ISOs and other plays that are not necessarily ISOs. For instance, during that stretch you mentioned in the 4th, Francis did turn the ball over on the ISO that you mentioned, and Cuttino had 2 turnovers in that stretch, one of which was more of a loose ball thing on the sideline with Horry but another of which came on what I would call a DRIBBLE AROUND play, but not necessarily an ISO in the sense that the he had most of his side of the floor cleared to go one-on-one. In fact, that is the "play" or situation, to be more correct, that I most object to: the DRIBBLE AROUND in non-ISO situations, the refusal to swing the ball out of a double team at the top, etc.

    In short, it is not the ISO itself that I object to. The Rockets have more than one player who is frequently capable of beating his man off the dribble, and this ability should be utilized. The needless wasting of time on the clock (often in non-ISOs) is the biggest problem that I see, and as I've said before, this bad habit causes a number of problems for this particular team.

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    #11 JR, Nov 9, 2000
  12. jamcracker

    jamcracker Member

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    I see what you mean, JR. I agree Mobley shouldn't be dribbling around unless he's enacting Rudy's plan. Mobley should be trying to draw a double team or trying to move the ball around, not just dribble it around.

    I agree completely that Mobley should NEVER spend several seconds dribbling unless he's isolated and his side is cleared out. We should never see non-ISO DRIBBLE AROUNDS.
     
    #12 jamcracker, Nov 9, 2000
  13. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    I agree with JR. Cuttino and Francis hold on to the ball too long. Either they need to make their move or pass it. I don't mind the iso's because I don't think there is a guard in this league that can cover Francis or Cat one on one, however they need to give up the ball when they are double teamed and even triple teamed.

    On the positive note, the amount of double teams that Cat draws shows how much respect they have for our guards. Now if they can just learn how to get others involved earlier in the play they we have championship potential because we have no shortage of shooters.

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    #13 rockbox, Nov 9, 2000
  14. Moe

    Moe Member

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    This is really a good thread. I have stated in the past (recently) that Cat should only need to dribble for 5 or 6 seconds to see if a double will come on the perimeter. Then he should make his move (drive, fake & pull up or whatever). There seems to be a general consensus that this is the way we would like to see the ISO run (not too much dribbling).

    JR said a couple of things that got me thinking: "Rudy seems to have a bizarre desire to drain time off the shot clock" and "Holding the ball (a) limits possessions and therefore shot attempts as well as number of times up and down the court ".

    On the first notion, I thought , naw Rudy doesn't want to take time of the shot clock. But, what if Rudy does want to take time off the game clock? That leads to the second notion of limiting possessions and attempts, which I agree with, but then I thought, it also limits possessions and attempts for the other team.

    So, is it possible Rudy is in fact telling Cat to do this (dribble time off the clock) to controll the ball in lieu of better defense on the part of the Rockets? Of course, it depends on if the Rockets are ahead or behind and how much behind they are at which point in the game.

    I have this question. At this point, are the Rockets more likely to win if the score is in the low 90's or less, or if it is in the high 90's or above?

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    #14 Moe, Nov 10, 2000
  15. Newtown

    Newtown Member

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    This is a great series of posts. This is the stuff with the Rockets that you could talk about for hours. I agree and disagree with several of the points:

    JR - I am not sure if I am anti-Rudy. I'm not really happy with Rudy because I think he has not done what a coach needs to be able to do more than anything, which is adjust to who your horses are and adjust your system. We could be much more effective with a running game and the iso set ups. On the other hand, I know from actually hearing Rudy first hand that at least 50% (and I think probably more like 75%) of the time, Steve, Cuttino, whoever has the ball does their own thing out there. No offensive execution at all. But I think that will never change - especially when your team is young. So it goes back on Rudy - adjust your system, run more, and keep these guys happy.

    Cuttino, his isos and his decision making absolutely kill me. They kill Rudy too. I was at the Bucks game last week and made a point of looking over at Rudy after each of the situations where either Cat or Stevie decided to be Superman, which were about 50 times. When they jacked up some ridiculous shot Rudy was pissed. And when they happen to make it, even when they made a good move but just got it done before the shot clock expired, Rudy threw his hands up in the air. I think it kills him.

    Now, the iso is an excellent play - I agree with JR. It just has to be executed. A one-on-one play is probably the most effective if run right. It has to be set up on one side or the other, not at the tope of the key and all of the other guys have to fill and rotate to the right places.

    On Shandon, he definitely needs the ball more in the post. But have you ever noticed what he does when he drives to the hole? The minute he gets the ball he takes off extremely hard to the basket and either finishes or dumps it off to somebody else. The defense is not ready and - imagine this - there is plenty of time left on the clock for other options.

    Steve and Cuttino are killing me. Steve, so far, is doing a lot more talking about wanting to make the good passes and get everybody involved than he is actually doing. Los definitely needs more playing time. What the hell were we doing so well at the end of last year and where did it go?

    As for patience, I just don't have any when it comes down to spending half of your offense running the kind of crap that they are. Sorry, the Rocks could be way too good to be jacking around like they are right now.

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    #15 Newtown, Nov 10, 2000
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