I had time on my hands and was wondering about our draft odds for the upcoming draft. Its easy to look that information up and find out that we have a 14% chance for the 1-4 picks each and a 48% chance for the #5 pick, but I wanted to put it to a real test. Using tankathon.com I simulated 100 drafts to get a breakdown on how me might do. Now the end results were surprising. Like I said early we have about a 48% chance of getting the 5th pick, those are pretty bad odds. I mean that's worse than blackjack odds. On the flip side we have a 14% chance of getting the #1 pick. To put that in perspective we are 3 times more likely to get the #5 pick than we are to get the #1 pick. Now these are the same odds for getting the #2, #3, and #4. So when you factor in those picks we now have the 52% chance of getting a top 4 pick. Looking at these odds you may see why I am a bit concerned. So after the simulations what did I learn. Well, like flipping a coin 100 times you will not get 50 heads and 50 tails every time but rather something that is close to that. The same was true for my simulations. The pick we are most likely to get is the #5 pick with 42 out of 100. The next most likely pick was the #1 pick at 18 of the 100. The #2 and #3 picks were right behind with 17 and 14 of the 100. Finally the least likely pick was the #4 pick with us getting it only 9 of the 100 times. Like the coin flip example the numbers are not going to bear out exactly, but rather something close. So what is my conclusion? I hate to say it but its a coin flip. On draft day grab a coin, pick a side for top 4 pick and for the #5. Whatever you get is the same odds for us missing out on a top 4 pick this year. My only questions is why didn't the terms of the deal include the 5th pick? That would make all of this go away. I don't see how protecting your future picks should basically be a coin flip. I mean these are statistical analysis guys who made this trade, couldn't they foresee this problem. So until the draft rest assured that our future is basically a coin flip. . . . . . . .
all I know is that Chicago’s own Derrick Rose was entering the draft, and the Bulls got the #1 overall pick with the 10th worst record all I know is the Cavs got the #1 overall pick with the 9th worst record right when Bron was coming back all I know is the Pelicans had the 8th worst record, and got the #1 pick, and the Lakers had the 11th worst record and got the 4th pick when AD was doing all he could to force a trade to LA somebody needs to tell me the odds and statistical probability for all that we gave Harden away to BK like the league wanted...Adam Silver, don’t start playing games now
I wouldn't bank on the league bailing us out on a crappy set of terms on our trade with OKC. There isn't a feel good story there. Besides, we know we are the redheaded stepchild of the league. I guess I don't understand how you negotiate to make it top 4 protected when top 5 protected covers you 100% rather than 52%. Then if you do have to tank you know you will keep your pick.
It's funny that you doubt the published rate of 52% but your method of validation is to use a website who's algorithm is simply to draw using that same published rate. It's not like the NBA will be using tankathon during the actually lottery.
How is there not a feel good story? We traded our franchise player to a destination he and the league wanted, cratered to the bottom of the league, and then get blessed with a #1 overall pick. How is that all that different from New Orleans and their situation with AD and the Lakers other than the Pelicans not having to endure a season this horrific after trading AD? If we’re the redheaded stepchild, then what are Minnesota, Detroit, and Orlando? The league acts like they don’t even exist.
The league act like they don't exist, but they actively rig it against us. (See: Scott Foster 2018 Warriors Series) Please don't set yourself up for disappointment. Just let the Curse of Westbrook run its course.
It’s one thing to rig the outcome in favor of the Warriors, but to sit idly by as the Rockets end up wasting an entire season because they lost their pick after falling to the bottom of the league due to sending Harden where the league wanted him while these perpetually horrible teams like Minnesota, Cleveland, Orlando, and Detroit that they don’t even care about get rewarded again would be a travesty of the highest order. Stephen Silas deserves Cade Cunningham after a season like this...Rockets fans deserve it Adam Silver, Idc what u have to do, just get it done
I never said I doubted the published rate of 52%. That is why I used tankathon. What I said was that with any simulation you are not going to hit the numbers exactly every time. Which my numbers also played out.
Why are we the stepchild? we're the 4th biggest metro, outside of the last 3 years good rep as a franchise, have won rings, have fielded greats. Hell, we even led the way for the chinese partnership. Outside of Morey talking about free rights for the 'woke' league, what else could put us in bad grace, just that? Are there any good hosuton prospects in the hs scene that can 'come play home'
Did the league not want to see Morey, the nerd who keeps running his mouth and ruining the game with analytics, and James “everything wrong with basketball” Harden to not win a ring and validate their methods and style of play? Yes. However, at the end of the day, u can’t tell me the league would rather see Cade Cunningham in Orlando, Detroit, Minnesota, or Cleveland instead of Houston because we’re the pariah or for the Rockets to end up just wasting an entire season because we lost our pick. The league doesn’t even care about those 4 organizations.
I live outside of Texas so I may have a different view. The only talk about Houston is negative. I don't see the league going out of its way to support a market that is generally disliked by anyone outside of Houston. You would think that we would get the kind of pub of a LA team, NY team if we are in such a large metro area, but we don't. I mean we had a player that was setting the league on fire for over 5 years and only comes away with 1 MVP. I would also add it was almost begrudgingly as well. The rules kept changing on what an MVP player was to fit a narrative that made Harden the 2nd place guy. That tells me how the league feels about us. I remember being in high school and having absolutely no Houston rockets gear. You could not find it, even in the biggest city in my area. When the Rockets won their first championship I almost got in a fight with a cashier because he made some comment about me being a bandwagon fan for buying Rockets gear. I basically told him that if his crappy store had actually carried Rockets merch I would have bought it before them. I have delt with this my whole life as a Rockets fan, so maybe I am a little jaded. Maybe that's why my hopes of a top 4 pick are a little below 52%, which is pretty bad odds to begin with.
Believe me it's no fun where i live as well, being stuck between Laker fans and Warrior fans. So much hate for the Rockets out here but I embrace it. "**** the naysayers cause they don't mean a thing cause this is what style we bring"
The league didn't change the narrative, thats the media. They didn't appreciate James. Lets not forget Shaq and Kobe have the same amount of mvps as steve nash, but 5 more rings and no one in the world thinks they are better. Heck they even got tired of giving MJ mvp and gave one to malone, f u utah. Lebron could damn near get one each year. Harden should have more, it is so blatantly obvious and its a bit ridiculous to see them talk about him as a savant winner in brooklyn when over here he 'wasnt fun to watch', gtfo. But once again ,thats the media. The league wants them to have power so gives them votes and they sell and often create stories. We've seen how clueless some odd end reporters are and some like nichols don't even remember who they vote for. Sadly that even affects playersr salaries/bonuses etc. Luckily, the players mvp awards did fix some things, with harden winning multiple mvps form the very peers who should hate his style of play and baiting, but they sure as hell clearly respect it. I can underestand the league hating us for the china business deal, but we also got that under way with yao too. All in all there just isn't any evidence. They love luka and loved dirk ,dallas is essentially the same level as houston to anyone from the outside. I get being a step under in terms of market as NY/LA, but outside of that houston is among the best places especially if you're an nba player. Refs suck, but each franchise outside of LA and GS says that.
Agreed. I can see if its between us and nyc or la, the league would make sense to put their thumb on it. But houston is so far and above a better model of profit, of city, and of international appeal and brand than the teams you mentioned like detroit, orlando, minny, or cleveland, the last two have been rewarded with top picks several times. Makes no sense. Rockets would be a great place and they know this owner needs some help too otherwise itll be a bad look for the mvp, so i'd say it makes total sense for rockets to win out. Then theres the lottery process, it is unnecessary level of bureaucracy and secrecy to bring a certified accountant and do it not live while we are stuck listening to rachel nichols ask awkward and unpleasant questions on the biggest day of these kids and their familie's lives to create headlines. Do it in the open, lose the espn idiot talking heads, make it lottery style suspense in front of everyone, let the chips fall where they may. LEt Clutchfans celebrate bc we need something to celebrate about, a top 4 would do it for me!
When Morey made that deal , I don't think anyone had the slightest idea that Harden would be gone .... With Harden on the roster , those protections are irrelevant. The Rockets aren't even a lottery team with Harden .... With him gone .... not so much.
You guys are over thinking this. The Lakers and Knicks were in the lottery for years and never won. There was no financial incentive to give the Wolves 1 this year over GSW. Ditto for Phx 3 years ago. Unless they have a huge incentive to rig the lottery like for the AD draft all those years ago, the modern NBA probably just let's the lottery play out. People are too vigilant nowadays, a lottery rigging scandal just isn't worth the hassle.
