DOW Down 250 Points. Is There a Bottom Anytime Soon?

dude, i just mentioned this to some co workers. esp

anyway, oil is punishing the market, simple and plain

 

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/26/markets/oil/index.htm?cnn=yes

WTF!!

 

Hope it drops further, I would like to buy in a little.

 

it's not a completely horrible time to buy but you have to consider the 2nd of '08 prospects for the us are not good. the fed doesn't seem terribly concerned with it's loose money policy and inflation which is extremely worrisome. further you have inflation getting out of control in developing markets. i am feeling too lazy to go into long drawn out explanations but if you have any specific questions feel free to shoot.

also...what were you looking at buying? just the market in general or specific stocks?

 

that's a good chunk of it. the fed isn't helping either. they really disappointed me yesterday with their language. they really could have started to put the squeeze on oil if they would have sounded more concerned about inflation. now it looks like they may not raise rates until next year...not good for inflation which may blow up in the 2nd half.

 

When the "general public" recognizes the problem, you are generally at the bottom. Problem is, consumer confidence is so fickle that it can prolong what should be a fairly short recession. Additionally, the commodities bubble creates a sticky situation that can really screw us over.

Bart Smith has likened us to Japan in that we could potentially be entering a lost decade due to the stupidity of our ways.

 

We are in a bear market lololol.

If I also didn't trade currencies I might not be in such a chipper move. Although, I'm basically flat as to my stock trading.


We're approaching/have approached a major support level in the market, if we fall under it that could be a problem, but I doubt we do.


If you have a long term outlook, buy.
If you're a little girl that looks at their 401k holdings everyday and get euphoric/depressed over the daily result, sell and then kill yourself.

Also, if you're in the red, and wanting to sell, never sell when the dow's down a lot. Sell next week, the market will prob. rally a little.

 

this is the theory that has been worrying me. I hope it doesn't play out this way

 

I just moved my 401k to stocks when market hit 12000. I figure at worst we go down to 11k and by avg down you get good value. Eventually the market will go up. You just have to have your horizons set long term.

 

I was hoping for a CEM buyout by blackstone and got killed today. Will probably wait a few days and then take my lumps.

 

I honestly don't think it will. Most of our metrics are more in line than Japans were, and Bernanke has finally realized the problem of inflation as opposed to concerning himself with an impending (and needed) recession. The only problem is than commodities bubble. We all know it will burst, but; when, how quickly, and how bad does it hurt the nation and specifically, Houston.

 

i had been trying to explain that in my 99.2 trillion thread but no one really cared about the numbers there. i think the mccain having trouble being proud of the us generated a greater response lol.

 

saw a goldman note on that today. basically said even though they lost some major deals they still appear cheap fwiw.

 

so you short the dxy or long the euro

 

that's how opec works. one side of opec will say one thing but another side will do the opposite. it's tough to believe anything they say.

 

Yes, there is a bottom and it will be reached next Tuesday at 1:17pm Eastern time.

Value investors like The_Conquistador are relishing this opportunity to go hard into top performing companies with strong cash flow margins, operating leverage, and good management teams.

PM me for stock picks, for those interested. I'd hate to be the only one making a killing in this market. I'll need someone to tag along with me on my STOCK MARKET VICTORY LAP throughout Latin America.