I guess this could be discussed in the other thread, but I wanted a poll, and this hasn't been discussed directly. I've said all along that I don't think we're headed for a recession because manufacturing is so strong. That being said, with some industries in the toilet, the dollar crashing, and the Fed further devaluing our money, I certainly think we could be heading for stagflation. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a significant slowdown, with 6-8% inflation.
bank of america reported their 3Q profits are down 95%. 95%!!! i think a stimulus package wont do much. people will just pocket the money bc they see the storm coming. this is what happens when greed gets in the way of rational thinking. "you make $20k/yr and you need $200k for a house... SURE!"
I voted yes, but I do not think that the stagflation will be as bad as it was in the late 70s. I still can not believe we had a big rate cut today, while inflation was starting to rise in the last quarter. One has to wonder what would the Fed do if it were not a Presidential election year.
i stand corrected. yall think this will be as bad as previous recessions? (great depression, S&L 1980's, tech bust 2000...)
hey it's still a profit!!! alot of other companies would love to say that. and besides, they have no one else to blame but themselves for either making or buying high risk loans. like a family of 5 hispanic immigrants who work 3 service jobs financing a $890k arm on the east coast?!?!?!?!
Inflation was rising due to energy and food prices, which will be reduced if we have a recession due to weakened global demand. I think stagflation is just the knee-jerk reaction from the ignorant masses who think the sky is falling
The Fed will reach the bottom of the rates soon and then what? The mortgage crisis is real and will drag many, many things under. It may be hard to see from Houston, but it's not hard at all to see from other places. What's also not hard to see is that people were using there paper equity as an ATM and spending it to live a lifestyle and their stupid decisions... encouraged by stupid lenders and exacerbated by an idiotic laissez-faire fiscal policy... will drag us all down. Here's a great post via the Irvine Housing Blog http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/ (via Atrios): I don't think we'll reach 30% unemployment as happened in the Great Depression, but I think it is almost a given that we end up in something beyond the 1980's S&L crisis.
i dont' see it being as serious or major as some think, (it wont be the great depression or even the 80's, IMO). I do think that people panicing and people trying to "fix" the problem could end up doing more harm than good. Personally, I think the "mortgage crisis" is overblown to a certain extent. Its there and some people will be hurt, but its also a small % of the entire market
We're probably already in a recession right now but be out of it by the time the numbers come in to confirm that that was the case.
totally concur. unfortunately - some would consider them victims. They themselves included. My brother went through the same thing and my sis-in-law still thinks they entitled to some sort of help.
What will end up making this worse is the proposed housing bailouts. All of the Dems mentioned it in yesterday's debate IIRC, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Bush did it. The American people are going to end up paying off these idiots mortgages with their tax dollars, all under the notion that they are somehow victims that has this done to them. These houses should be foreclosed on, the housing prices should go down, building should decrease and buying (for less money) should increase. That is the way forward. That would require that people are held responsible for their own actions though, and when does that ever happen?
