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Do you believe in the Law of averages, if so Rockets will roll

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Chronz, Dec 11, 2007.

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  1. Chronz

    Chronz Member

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    Nearly every major scoring threat outside of Mac and Yao arent playing up to their potential. But no team has ever had this many players score at such career worst rate, theres no possible way they can continue playing this bad can they.

    Career TS% (This Year)
    Bonzi .518 (.455) CAREER WORST
    Rafer .494 (.458) CAREER WORST
    Battier .560 (.549) Hes starting to pick it up but hes been terribly inconsistent
    Francis .534 (.440) CAREER WORST
    Hayes .588 (.537) Not terribly important because they dont look to him to score but he used to feed off of Tmac
    Head .552 (.556) Last year he was at .584 when Tmac was running the show
    James .537 (.460) CAREER WORST



    Point being they dont need to play great, they just need to give Yao and Mac some ******* support. Im starting to question if playing Tmac off the ball more was the right thing to do, sure its helped his own offensive game but last year everyone relied on him to create for them. He still does that but hes not giving them the same looks where they had all day to shoot.

    When these guys start hitting their shots I gaurantee the Rockets will start winning. And all the hate on the 2 stars and their so called lack of intensity/commitment/heart/desire etc will be forgotten. You guys are all blaming the wrong people, Yao and Mac are NOT whats wrong with this team, they may not be playing to expectations but nowhere near as low as the supporting cast.
     
    #1 Chronz, Dec 11, 2007
  2. northeastfan

    northeastfan Member

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    Two points ....
    If all of a sudden, all stocks go down, doesn't that mean there is likely a universal cause? In the same way, when all shooting percentages go down, there is likely a universal cause ... could it be the offensive game plan and execution??

    Secondly, the "law of averages" is a myth. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
     
    #2 northeastfan, Dec 11, 2007
  3. michecon

    michecon Member

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    ever heard of the term "structural change" in stats?
     
    #3 michecon, Dec 11, 2007
  4. Jonhty

    Jonhty Member

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    there's probably a reason those guys post career worst numbers other than they're in an unlucky slump. those guys are all on the downhill of their careers. when you're on the decline, it's not surprising to post below career average numbers.
     
    #4 Jonhty, Dec 11, 2007
  5. Chronz

    Chronz Member

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    Good point, I think Tmac not creating every shot for them had something to do with it but they can still do much better. But offensive game plan and execution dont hinder this many players this badly for an entire season.

    As for the myth comment, it could be but Id like you to name 1 example in basketball where a team underwent a change and had this many players playing so poorly. The law of averages dont exist in the outside world, but in a game of quantifiable aspects its hard to debunk its existence.
     
    #5 Chronz, Dec 11, 2007
  6. t-mac4bigmac

    t-mac4bigmac Member

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    I completely agree with this. Call me crazy, I think if the teammates just step up, that'll solve so many problems.

    I miss Battier posting up, then shooting the baby hook shot.
    I miss Hayes' movement to get the open layup.
    I miss Luther shooting those crazy threes and his hard cuts to the basket
    I miss Francis' ability to penetrate, break down defenses, and score around the basket.
    I miss James' confidence in his shot.
    Scola needs to shoot.
    Bonzi needs to attack the basket.

    Bottomline, SHOOT THE BALL! The other four guys need to be more aggressive. They have to WANT to shoot the ball. It's easy for a opposing team to guard 2 players, but its much harder to guard 5 scoring threats. And we have that capability.

    We've been playing the 2-man offense for too long. Tmac and Yao can only do so much. When so much reliance are placed on these two guys, of course frustration will come. Tmac and Yao have been attacked by double-teams, Tmac has been forced to chuck up shots, Yao has had to rush his shot, and after awhile it comes to the point where those two are thinking "what else can we do". This all because the teammates aren't stepping up.
     
    #6 t-mac4bigmac, Dec 11, 2007
  7. Chronz

    Chronz Member

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    Your underrating just how bad these players are scoring. This isnt a natural decline a year ago Francis posted a career high, this is more like every player undergoing micro-fracture surgery in the offseason.
     
    #7 Chronz, Dec 11, 2007
  8. northeastfan

    northeastfan Member

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    When Wade went down the Heat were horrible. When TMac went down, the Rockets were horrible. Sometimes there is a reasonable explanation for the statistics that you are seeing. It could very well be that our offense is not (and never will be) creating easy scoring opportunities for our players which would reduce their percentages.
     
    #8 northeastfan, Dec 11, 2007
  9. Chronz

    Chronz Member

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    Except that Yao and Tmac have been relatively healthy throughout their struggles and some have had huge games when Tmac has not been there. And as far as reducing their percentages go, yes they may never be in .590-.600 range but this is so far beneath them that it has fluke written all over it, believe me I would be saying the same thing if every player on the team was experiencing career highs in efficiency. I dont know if youve ever heard about the fluke rule in stats but this is eerily similar.

    This offense is suppose to create good looks, but even if it didnt there is no reason why these guys should be scoring so poorly even in past situations where they were more of the focal point of the defense they scored more effectively. Less attention should garner higher quality shots. These guys havent been making theirs. I mean you cant tell me your not surprised by how many layups the Rockets have blown.
     
    #9 Chronz, Dec 11, 2007
  10. northeastfan

    northeastfan Member

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    Let me make it easy for you. Suppose (this is hypothetical) that Rick's offense was to keep the ball moving around the three point line and when the shot clock hit 8 seconds, whoever had the ball *had* to shoot. Do you think the percentages would go down? Of course it would. Why? Because the offense was producing low percentage shots.

    While not as obvious as the scenario above, it could very well be that the offense isn't producing very good shots because it is just the wrong scheme. That would lower the shooting percentage of everyone regardless of how good of an inherent shooter they were.
     
    #10 northeastfan, Dec 11, 2007
  11. northeastfan

    northeastfan Member

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    And yes, those missed layups drive me absolutely nuts! :confused:
     
    #11 northeastfan, Dec 11, 2007
  12. Chronz

    Chronz Member

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    No argument there, the only point Im making is that if the problems do indeed lie with the offense, the likelihood that it continues to produce such low quality shots for the players is so low that they will pick it up (because to my knowledge no team has ever had this many players suffer such a drastic drop) and when they do the Rockets will take off. Granted there is a first time for everything, and if it does I think Adelman should get canned.

    Im not sure how many end of the shot clock heaves we've had compared to the rest of the league.
     
    #12 Chronz, Dec 12, 2007
  13. slmonky

    slmonky Member

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    I think it's all about our new system, our system focus on passing more than shooting...

    that's why
     
    #13 slmonky, Dec 12, 2007
  14. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    I believe in the law of gravity.
     
    #14 Will, Dec 12, 2007
  15. YallMean

    YallMean Member

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    Half of those guys are on the other side of their careers. So dont expect them to get any better quick.

    Head is not getting minutes, and put into a role more than a straight shooter, which messes him up. Battier now only takes the three, last year he actually had a post up game going, JVG knows his personel better than Adelman. Hayes, well, his stats will always vary.
     
    #15 YallMean, Dec 12, 2007
  16. TeamUSA

    TeamUSA Member

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    AVerage number won't let you go to the playoffs in the Western Conference.
     
    #16 TeamUSA, Dec 12, 2007
  17. Bleeding Red

    Bleeding Red Member

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    Average. Yeah. That's what we are: average. Sound about right..But too bad most of others Western teams are above average.
     
    #17 Bleeding Red, Dec 12, 2007
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