Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a big problem looming on the horizon. While I am extremely excited about the additions of Ming and Nachbar, and the upcoming season, there is a huge problem which will have to be resolved in the meanwhile; namely, do the Rockets have enough shots in a given game to either keep everyone happy, or justify their place on the team? Last year, as a team, we averaged roughly 81 shots/game. Let's be optimistic and assume that with the addition of Ming, the rebounds he'll get and the fast breaks he'll lead us to will increase our fga/game to 85, which would be a significant increase. Okay, now let's grit our teeth and take a closer look... Francis: Francis has always, and will continue to take about 18 shots a game. I see no reason why this will decrease.That leaves 67. Mobley: Last year Mobley also took 18 shots/game. In that he is one of our more one dimensional players, that dimension being scoring, a decrease in his fgas would lessen his value to us. In other words, if Mobley isn't putting up enough shots to get in the 20 ppg range, what is he really adding to our team? The Cat, and others, have noted that his point production/fga last year was quite good, and this is true, but his secondary contributions don't really justify his being a starter on a contending team if he's not among the top team scorers. So we'll say 18, leaving 49. Ming: Based on even the most conservative estimates, Ming will have to average at least in the low double figures in scoring this year for it to be considered a success. Add to that Rudy's comments about restructuring the offense to suit him, and his. no. 1 overall status/pressure, and I would suggest that anything less than 13 fga/game would be unlikely. If that is the case, that leaves us with 36 to play with. Griffin: Last year Griffin averaged more than 9 shots/game, but it would be short-sighted not to assume that he will see a significant jump in his looks this year, and another conservative estimate would put him at, say, 13 fga/game. That leaves 23 for the rest of the team. Taylor : If Taylor is healthy and starting, he provides little except for scoring...and that scoring will cost us about 10 fga/game. Leaving 13. Rice: For Rice to possibly justify his contract, he'll have to put up shots, or else he'll be unhappy once again being relegated to the role of defensive stopper *cough cough*. Let's say 6 shots a game. Leaves 7. Players yet to be accounted for...Nachbar, Cato, Thomas, Norris!, Morris, and Torres...with 7 shots...Even if you factor in the possibility of significant injuries, you still have a serious problem. This leads me to the following conclusions... 1) IF, and I say IF, we are going to be significantly reducing Mobley's role in the offense, now is the time to trade him. He's coming off a career scoring year, but really contributes little else at an exceptional level, and a reduction in his offensive role would both lead to discontent, and significantly reduce his trade value. Going with a defensive stopper at the 2 guard spot, like a Lenard, might be the way to go, particularly if we add... 2) Rashard Lewis....If there is any truth to the Lewis rumours, we will have to unload a lot of our current offense. I would suggest replacing Mobley with a defensive 2 guard, do everything you can to dump Rice, and move Thomas where he will be of more use. In return I'd only be looking to get a draft picks, high ones, to protect our future, especially regarding the Morris trade. 3) Kenny Thomas/Maurice Taylor...One of these guys has to go. You might get more bang for your buck right now for Thomas,as Taylor's injury question reduces his trade value, especially given his $$, but Taylor is more of a one dimensional scorer who will eat up valuable fgas if he plays. Either way, they are redundant given out current situation... 4) Moochie must be harnassed or traded. Given the scoring potential of this team, almost every shot Moochie takes will be a bad one, and he takes them in bunches. If he's going to remain on this team he must, repeat, must adopt a new offensive attitude. Overall...With the primary offensive focus being on a combination of Francis, Ming, Griffin, and Mobley or Lewis, we have to have our complimentary players being willing/able to do other things. Having a bunch of one-dimensional scorers in support of our primary offensive players is both a waste of roster space and largely useless. What we do need our support players to do is play D, distribute, rebound, hustle, bang, and play more D, unless we want to become a modern version of the old run n' gun no-D-in- Denver Nuggets, and I doubt that.
Remember, we ran down the shot clock on many, if not most, of our plays. With the players the Rockets now have, the game will be speeded up resulting in more shots -- probably about 90 to 95 a game.
No way on earth...Are you seriously suggesting that we will take 5-10 (!!) more shots a game than the Kings (85/game) or Mavericks (84), not to mention the Lakers, Bucks, etc...I was being VERY optimistic when I moved us up to 85 a game, which would have us seriously vying for tops in the league...
- I am willing to bet money that Cuttino's assist numbers improve dramatically this year. Last year he had absolutely no one to pass to (Butterfinger Cato, Dribbler Moochie, Bricker Morris, Air Langhi, Injured Steve, Blackhole Thomas) and thus it showed in his overall assist numbers. This year he will hopefully have a healthy Steve, Maurice, Griffin, healthy Rice, Nachbar, and Ming. I am wiling to bet that he averages close to 4 assist which would be pretty damn good. - Defensive stoppers at the two position do crap. What did Bruce Lee Bowen do against Kobe? Jack! Best defense is a strong offense sometimes. Mobley might not stop anyone at the two position (and I am one of the few that thinks he is average to above average on defense), but other two's cant exactly stop Cuttino either.
Francis took 14 shots per game his first season and 15 per game his second season. That is very few shots for a franchis player who some people call a ballhog. If anything, his first two seasons he was too UNselfish. So, he hasn't always taken 18 shots per game. I have a feeling the reason it went up this year was because there was no Taylor, no Olajuwon, no Rice. Who else is going to shoot? Terrence Morris? No thanks. I bet Steve drops back down to around 15 shots per game this season with all the other options he's going to have. As for Mobley, I do not want to trade him. It's inaccurate to use last year's stats as a prediction for the future. Cuttino took three more shots per game last season than he did the previous year for the same reason that Francis took more shots; they're just wasn't anyone else to take them. Hopefully Rudy will eliminate the ISO this season and Mobley will not force up so many shots, but rather let the shots come to him. He shot better from 3-point range than Lewis last season and was the best shooter on our team. When he had wide open shots it was almost automatic. Plus, Mobley can put the ball on the floor and create his own shot when he wants, which is something Lewis can't do. If you think Mobley's one-dimensional I wonder what you think of Lewis. I think a 2-guards primary job is to shoot and score. I've never bought into putting some lackluster offensive player at the 2-guard just because he's a "defensive stopper." We already went through that with Anderson. Cuttino will only take around 14 to 15 shots per game next season.
I think steve should take the responsibility of whole team.Just look at MJ.before phil jackon he was a one-man-show scorer,but bulls was bad.but after phil he changed a little bit the style of playing,bulls became great.Steve is a great player,but he can be better.
Thank you DCkid, I have been trying to tell Francis haters that for a long time. Francis is not perfect but he has yet to be a ball hog or a selfish player on the court.
Trade Mobley? Do we really need a super star at every position? Mobley has shown that he can be a good spot up shooter, definately a welcome skill with Ming and Francis passing out of double teams. Besides, you shouldn't just say, trade him. I'm tired of this bull, at least name somebody who we should trade him for. You have to consider the fact that equally talented guards are making more than twice what Mobley makes.
Great post!! That is why I have chanted all along for the Rox to acquire a player like Malik Rose. He contributes in so many little categories and does not need shots!! He scores off of offensive rebounds and garbage points. And he will bring interior toughness to the team. The thing that worries me about the Rox is the Portland Trailblazers effect. They had tons of talent too and didnt mesh. Rox can be in even more trouble since the team is much younger as well. Its great to have tons of potential but you need some experienced role players as well. Imagine if the team dropped Rice and Mo T for the likes of Horry and Fox... If Yao can contribute 12/9/3 blks to the mix, I would rank them TOP 10 in the ENTIRE LEAGUE behinds the likes of Sac, LA, SA, DALL, NJ etc. I hope management adds some experienced role players soon...
I don't understand the logic that if Mobley isn't taking 18 shots a game, he is shouldn't be in the starting lineup. The shots that players need to be taking are the ones that have the best chance of going in. With more potential scorers on the team, players like Mobley need to seriously rethink their shot selection, and be a little bit more unselfish. Now, if that means that Cat is only taking 15-16 shots a game, I don't think that automatically means that he is not contributing enough because most of what he does is score. It just means the ball is being shared more. I would be perfectly happy to have Steve and Cat shoot 2-3 shots a game less this season (while passing more and taking fewer ill-advised shots) to give attempts to Ming and Griffin.
Cat only avg's 14 shots a game for his career. Last year he avg'd 18 shots a game because he was the only option on many occasions. Two years ago he only avg'd 15 shots a game and people were still claiming that he was a ball hog. There are certain people on this BBS that will never be happy with Cat even if he hits the game winning shot in the NBA finals for us.
The main shooters/scorers will remain the same. Boki will get some open looks because the 3 in this offense always does. That doesn't mean he's the first option though. Ming will be primarily blocks and rebounds this season -- you know, those things expected out of Cato. He'll also set up at the high post and with his superior vision and passing, could rack up a few assists.
1) I'm not saying Trade Mobley...I'm saying trade him if A) We're going to seriously reduce his role in the offense, thereby making him unhappy and lowering his trade value, or B) If we get Lewis, which would make our shot shortage worse, and besided they bring similar things. 2) I don't get your All-Star at every position argument...My entire point is the exact opposite, that we don't need a team full of high-scorers, but more role players, defenders, rebounders, etc...
The problem with trying to get Cat and Steve to take fewer shots is two-fold...A) With their reactions to the acquisition of Ming, they made it clear that their support, such as it is, is conditional upon the premise that he doesn't adversely effect their status. and B) even if you cut Cat back to 15 and Steve to 15, that adds 6, leaving us with 13 fga/game for 6 players, many of whom need to score to contribute, and that was also with a very optimistic estimation of 85/game as a team, and very conservative estimates for many other players...
No, the point is that with only so many shots to go around, having a guy take serious minutes who hasn't shown above average ability in any area but scoring, and make him have to take fewer shots, thereby reducing his reason for being on the floor, will make him both unhappy and less valuable.
I have nothing at all against Cat, in fact I like him a lot, I'm just seeing that have a serious shortage of shots here, and trying to work out the best solutions...
I'm so sick of hearing about the Portland Trailblazers effect. Portland has a team full of malcontents, we do not. There is no comparison between the Rockets and Blazers. Griffin, Boki and Ming are not the kind of players that will demand the ball. To suggest we drop players for less talented players will make us better is just silly. PLEASE STOP!
I agree. A big difference to the Jailblazers is that our players seem to have a better character and that they are younger, less "established" than guys like Pippen, Stoudamire or Kemp were, at least judging by how big a "name" they were.
Great post, with valid important questions. Why isn't the Chronicle doing articles like this - you should polish up your post, and submit it to a few of the nba sites, such as inside hoops. Raven
