I am no sabermetrics guy. But Morey's "coin-flip" remark and decision to stick with McHale have me wondering if his analytics care about wins? Do things like point differential and plus-minus trump wins? We lost a bunch of close games this series and it seemed to me the difference was bad tactical and strategic decisions that cost us more than anything one player did. That is a coaching "eye-test" which can be even more subjective than a player "eye-test". Hypothetically, would 2 blowout wins and 4 close losses be statically "better" or equivalent to 4 close wins and 2 blowout losses. Who cares about overall point differential? I would personally prefer the latter outcome and any statistical analysis which fails to do so (over a larger sample of course) would seem inadequate in many situations.
Anyone associated with the Rockets would prefer the latter. In the playoffs, winning in the short term is what matters. Point differential can be more indicative of actual strength of the team. So if one is interested in gauging the performance of a team for the purposes of future planning and/or forecasting, that might be what they pay attention to.
I see the value in it and just trying to rationalize the decision to retain McHale. For the sake of argument, let us assume that we are statistically "even" with Portland (in reality we are probably slightly superior). I still think we lose at least 6 out of 10 to them due to coaching. A model which says that the teams are "even" would not be adequate in this situation.
A more timely question would be: does Moreyball strategy produce winning basketball in the postseason? It's pretty clear we played to different brands of basketball this year. Regular season: read/react, high pace, three's + layups + FTs, ISOs/Dwight in post Postseason (especially games 5 & 6): TT, Dwight's inside-out, even pace, Lin/Parsons/Asik PnR, Trey D baseline screens, occasional Harden ISO It should be obvious that defenses tighten up and mismatches are exposed in the playoffs. So does Moreyball favor offense at the expense of defense? Or do the Rockets simply need better defensive coaches? And finally, is Moreyball based on advanced metrics and models produced utilizing regular season data?
Are you kidding? He micromanaged his way into landing Harden and resultantly Howard. He is a very good GM. Where the contention lies is perhaps his desires to imprint his basketball philosophies onto how the team plays.
My question is... Does Morey only use statistics for the regular season? It seems like analyzing playoff statistics would be more useful to come up with theories and whatnot. Regular season statistics are almost useless because it's night and day in regards to regular season vs. playoff basketball. For example... Morey says uptempo is the best way to play basketball statistically. But did he come to that conclusion looking at regular season stats or playoff stats or both? Because honestly, regular season stats don't mean much.
Under Morey. 2-4 loss to the Jazz after Yao was out for the season. 4-2 victory over the Blazers. 3-4 loss to the Lakes where Yao went out in game 2 of the series 2-4 loss to the Thunder, 2-2 following Westbrook's injury. 2-4 loss to the Blazers Seems to me two series losses(Thunder, Jazz) are expected as big underdogs. One series loss where we're clearly the favorite and should be the favorite. One series win when most people were split. One series loss where it was much closer than expected. I don't know how much Morey can affect postseason play, but for the most part we seem to be par for the course in the postseason during his era.
NBA is result oriented business and he is not just responsible for players on the team. I'm not sure how someone with 1 playoff victory in 7 years can be considered very good.
Yup, that's pretty much where I was going with my post. These are questions that should be asked, if Morey hasn't answered them already.
Nope, AB got angry at the FO. Felt betrayed. He thanked the fans, said we were great. But he didn't thank the organization. I think that's the last time he thinks of returning to the Rockets. I just feel Morey's stats are too cold, he fails to factor in the human element. Maybe that's why he wants to hang on to McHale as a crutch to recruit players because his IPads certainly didn't work. Meanwhile he thinks he can mitigate the lack of coaching with the assistants or with his interventions. But man, last year vs OKC we didn't suffer from so many mental breakdowns. In that sense, we regressed this year in the playoffs.
many years were lost hitching the wagon the Yao who had a glass left foot. it took only 3 years once we cut ties to get a cornerstone in Harden and subsequently Howard. It does not happen overnight and we went through a very big transition from Yao/Tmac to where we are now
Statisticians will tell you that it's much harder to use stats in the postseason because sample size is low and luck is much more prevalent. This is an extension from just what math and statistics says in general, not just in regards to basketball. So take it for what it's worth. And of course it doesn't mean they're right. Billy Beane for a long time has been blasted for the A's postseason woes despite many great regular seasons. Is it possible Morey follows that path? We'll see in a couple of years.
apologies i wasn't very clear, i meant to say something to the effect of, when it became clear that Yaos body could no longer withstand the rigours of an nba season
I see where you're coming from, but weren't those other playoff games coached by Adelman? My understanding is that Moreyball took hold once McHale and Morey's hand-picked assistant coaches were hired. So then, IMO, we only have two playoff series to glean results: OKC (last year) and Portland (this year).
I think Morey's stats are all predicated on getting wins, but being one dimensional as a team makes it easier to guard. Sometimes formulas need to be adjusted a bit - I would bet DM is always tinkering. DD
Morey doesn't actually play on the court. He assembled a very talented team. Most of us are surprised that our team lost to the Blazers due to the superior talent on our roster. If that is true, logically it stands that it's not Morey's fault we underperformed in the series. Because Morey's analytics are not common knowledge, people just project all of their fears and doubts into their assumptions of his assumptions. Waste of time. All we know is that Morey constructed a decent roster, but it didn't come together the right way. Seems to me like there's another front office role that is supposed to take care of that part.
The way he builds a team also--seems like he favors offensive stars without considering fit or defense. Like he will reportedly pursue Melo and Love as best players available. But what about the defense? How would they fit with H and H? He traded for Jordan Hamilton but look how that helped our perimeter defense in the postseason.
