Looking at the Rockets roster (when fully healthy) for next season, one area that really stands out is the log jam the Rockets have at the forward spots. Mo Taylor Glen Rice Kenny Thomas Eddie Griffin Walt Williams Terence Morris Dan Langhi Going into this season before Mo's injury I am sure the Rockets were looking at a starting forward line-up of Taylor and Rice. But unexpectedly Kenny Thomas' improved play and Eddie Griffin improving at a much faster rate than expected has leveled the playing field a bit at the forward spot. Taylor and Rice are getting the big bucks (Taylor by our own accord). So one would think that if you are paying those two that big bucks they should start. On the other hand while Griffin is very young he does provide the defence and shot blocking that neither Rice, Taylor or Thomas can bring to the table plus we don't want to stunt his growth by sitting him down and giving him less minutes (see Jermaine O'neal's past situation in Portland). So my main question here is who starts next year -- AND who will log the most minutes / be in the game in the fourth quarter? As far as Walt Williams goes, I believe his contract is up after this season so I am sure he will either sign for MUCH less or will be let go to save cap room. I know he is buds with Francis/Mobley but isn't it a bit redundant to have Walt and Glen Rice? Aren't they pretty much the same type of player. At one time Rice was a VERY GOOD shooter but during the twilight of his career is he much better than Walt? Either way, Rice is signed to a contract and Walt's is up and I just don't see why we would keep Walt when we already have Rice and Morris (work on your jumper in the offseason) waiting in the wings. Speaking of Morris, he seems to be stuck at the end of the bench biding his time until Rice's contract is up and then Morris can be more of a factor. And I just don't see any place for Langhi here on the Rockets roster. Perhaps one solution to the Rockets glut at forward is to play one of them (Taylor or Griffin) at center. While I am not really a huge Cato fan, one thing he does bring to the table is "bulk" -- something you need to get past a team like the Lakers. But beyond the Lakers could a line up of Rice, Taylor and Griffin in the front court work? Griffin is probably not a natural center but perhaps this lineup is the "best" front court line up we can put on the floor, especially in crunch time. Perhaps this makes Kenny Thomas the "odd" man out here. Because out of the three: Taylor, Rice, Griffin; two of them will start for sure and the other will probably be the first forward off of the bench. Kenny has done really well for us this year but perhaps to benefit him and the Rockets they should move him in the off season for either future picks or a defensive rebounder. I think this is something this team needs is a rugged power forward that can rip down rebounds. If we start a forward line up of Rice and Taylor can they compete for rebounds? I guess Cato would be a big factor here as he would be expected to grab a lot of boards. Anyway, I have babbled on long enough. What is everyone's take on the Rockets forward situation for next season? Again my main question is: Who starts next year -- AND who will log the most minutes / be in the game in the fourth quarter? Chris
Excellent post!!! I would think Rudy will go with MoTay and Griffin as his starters (most minutes). Rice could possibly start (if he could ever stay healthy) and Griffin would be first off the bench. Rice could also back up Mobley at 2 guard, so he would log starters minutes. Also I expect to see (against smaller teams) a lineup of MoTay at center Griffin at the 4 and Rice at 3. I do expect Kenny to be moved in some deal this offseason. His stock has risen dramatically and there are a lot of teams that would love to have him on their roster. A big and bulky rebounder type is just what this team needs. Nazr Muhammad is a possibility. What we need is a big man who can score as well as cover up the mistakes our guards make on defense.
That wouldn't be a bad idea Bob. If we can get a tough defender/rebounder for KT, I'd reluctantly endorse that trade. Nazr Mohammed would be a good choice.
I'd rather the Rockets move Rice over Thomas. Thomas is the ultimate sub. A solid rebounder and scorer. Thomas could effectively backup SF and PF. And as we have seen, he can start effectivley as well. The best part about it, Thomas is young enough and experienced enough to be an integral part to the long term sucess of the Rockets. Rice is over the hill. Not consistent. He is injury prone. I'd even include our draft pick in an effort to unload Rice. The last thing the Rockets need to do is get any younger. They have to stay with the age group of 24 to 28. So we get rid of Willis, Williams, Rice, and future uproven draft picks.
Well, barring any significant acquisitions, here's how I predict the Rockets frontcourt will look next season. I think the only way Taylor will not start at power forward next year is if the injury has severely wrecked his game. He'll probably get 30 minutes a night. He'll play center some when Cato is getting a rest. Rice will start at SF, but will probably only play about 20-25 minutes a night. Kenny will probaly get around 28 minutes a night playing a mixture of SF and PF, but mainly SF. If Rice still sucks, Kenny could easily become the starting SF. Eddie will get around 30 minutes a night, and will play PF almost exclusively. He'll probably come in fairily early in the first and third quarters and will play the remainder of the half. TMo and Walt will be pretty interchangeable, and combined they'll only get about 10-15 minutes a night at SF. Langhi won't play at all unless we're getting killed. And as for Cato, he'll get about 25 minutes a night, and if the Rockets don't acquire a center in the offseason, Taylor and Griffin will fill in at the 5 when Cato is resting. And just for the heck of it, Mobley and Steve will get about 40 a night while Moochie gets from 16-20.
Long Reply Below- I predict Langhi and Walt will be gone next year so there really isnt a need to think about them. If they're not gone, they are at the end of the bench or on the IR. I see 4 of the 5 starters spots as a given. PG = Francis SG = Mobley SF = ? PF = Mo Taylor (unless he really sucks) C = Cato I know some people on this board disagree with me, but I see Griffin being a better 3/4 type player than a 4/5. He currently has little to no back to the basket game and is a much more proficient outside scorer than inside. My hope is that he really works on his ballhandling skills over the offseason and he will be a very proficient offensive 3. His ball fake on the outside is fantastic, and with just a little extra dribbling he could become both a good outside shooter and slasher, with the occasional post-up and offensive rebound. I think offensively that is what we are all looking for and hoped Rice would bring. Defensively this could be a question mark, but will Rice's mobility post-injury really be so great as to be a better defender. Plus, Griffin could guard the 4 and Mo the 3 if necessary. I think Griffin defensive skills are best utilized from the weak side anyways and guarding opposing three's should allow him to use those skills. So, I'll pencil Griffin in as the starting three assuming he can become a better ballhandler. At the very least, I am so tired of the 3-guard lineup that I really hope we go in teh other extreme and start Griffin at SF! Then, your bench becomes relatively decent and deeper. Total lineup: PG = Francis, Moochie SG = Mobley, Torres SF = Griffin, Rice, T-Mo PF = Taylor, KT, Griffin, T-Mo C = Cato, [draft pick - hopefully Ming], Taylor/Griffin This gives you a traditional 8-9 man rotation, with Moochie, Rice and KT as your main subs. T-Mo and Torres get few minutes. Remaining healthy and working very hard on defense over the summer should turn this team into a 45+ game winner and I see that giving us at least a 6 seed next year. Finally, this says nothing of our draft picks. In all honesty, if the Rockets make any moves this offseason, I hope it is to package the draft picks for a higher one. We do not need any more major trades (loss of Hakeem, Anderson, Bullard with addition of Rice). Getting a Rashard Lewis or Lamar Odom would be nice, but this team has so many chemistry problems its ridiculous. In terms of a draft I would like to go big and defensive. Cato has improved, but we still have no bulk or size upfront. And lets face it, no matter how much defense is drilled into this team in the offseason, they will still never be a great defensive team with the current personnel. I'd package our pick with the Toronto one to try and get Yao Ming. I know he is unproven and the super-tall players have never really worked before, but Ming is suppossed to have Bradley's height with a Raef Lafrentz bulk/game. Even if we still suck defensivley, could you imagine a frontcourt of Griffin, Cato and Ming on the floor at the same time. Better defense = fewer easy buckets for the other team, better board work, more fast breaks and an easier offense. I will always be a Rocket's fan, but with the current group of players, next year is make or break. They need some momentum moving into the new arena.
All of that is fine but we have a history of getting good players and not making it work. Pippen, Barkley, Francis, etc. The system needs more overhauling than any personnel moves!
We'd be lucky as hell to get Nazr for KT. Nazr could start for most teams at a premium position, C, while KT would not start for 20 teams at a not so premum position, PF.
Originally posted by BobFinn* Mo has stated publicly that he does not want to play center. All we need is a disgruntled Taylor. I'd put EG there, instead, although I agree he's not a natural 5. He would do better there than Mo, however. I agree with JayZ that Langhi and Walt are gone, leaving Mo, KT, EG, Rice, and TMo. Without playing someone out of position, there's only 96 minutes available to the five of them (four, really, since TMo will only get spot minutes). Who loses out in the scramble for PT? Rice likely will be impossible to move, and I would not trade KT. I think he is a better 4 than Mo, who suffers from debilitating reboundophobia. I would try to trade Mo in the offseason, although that may not be possible, either. I would leave him at the end of the bench, if necessary, rather than trade KT or deny EG minutes. The big question is, can KT play 3 effectively, and if not, who would take Mo?
DCkid...exactly how i see it...however i would like to see langhli getting some minutes behind mobely at the sg spot...but what about players drafted...
All good posts! Assuming that KT is not traded for an athletic, 6'10" Small Forward, I see our starting forwards and rotation as follows: Walt and Langhi are gone. SF - Starter is KT (30 mins.) KT is showing that he has the lateral quickness to guard some of the premier SFs in the league, while still being able to produce 14/7 a night. In the off season, if he improves in FT % and ability to knock down the face up jumper, his numbers will be even better. 14/7 is good production from the 3rd./4th. scoring option. SF - Back Up is Rice (18 mins.) Given Rice's age, limited defense and mobility, I think he is best served coming off the bench and camping out at the 3pt. line for open looks. He assumes Walt's role. PF - Starter is MoTay (30 mins) Excellent off the dribble and Face up shooter. Expect for him to be able to deliver 15/5 C - Starter is Cato (25 mins) Provides the bulk needed and hopefully 9 - 10 rebounds a game C/PF - Eddie logging back up minutes and the 4/5 ((30 mins). Once Eddie becomes a little stronger and able to defend 5s in the post, I see him closing out games at the 5. You don't lose anything on the defensive end due to his rebounding and shot blocking, but you gain a lot on the offensive end given his ability to knock down the jump shot (in comparison to Cato) TMO will get some minutes to continue his development to assume Rice's back up role. I keep reading that the Rockets want to get bigger and more athletic up front, so I'm guessing that someone will be moved, i.e. Kenny.
When I read Bay Rock's post, I thought his predictions were very reasonable. Then I remembered....Rudy....3 guard lineup. What he doesn't allow for is very significant minutes at SF for a guard.
Cato should be put on the bench! Why? We need to have a legitimate scoring option, preferably in the post. We should be not longer concerned about his confidence as I think he has matured since and is not as fragile as he was a year ago. He is bulky and he is a good rebounder and shot blocker and for that I would still get him solid minutes. I would start MoT like we would have started Marc Jackson; Eg at the 4 and KT at the 3. Rice would have to be lethal before he is returned to the starting lineup. Also Tmo will be a major contributor as will OT, so Rice will have to come real good. The rotation below has to be sufficient. If it is not, then blame the system. MoT, Cato EG, Tmo KT, Rice Mobes, OT Francis, Moochie
Moe - Well, my focus was the forwards, but I'm hoping the 3 guard line up is a thing of the past. Rudy has to start reducing Steve's and Cat's minutes. IMO, 40+ minutes a game is too much. I would like to see Steve and Cat avg. about 36 mins a game, with Moochie picking up about 24 mins. Some how, we would still need to find some minutes for OT. The starters would be: Steve Cat KT MoTay Cato with EG, Rice and Moochie forming a solid 8 man rotation.
We could not be going into next season hung up on this 8-man rotation thing and leave out OT and TMo. If we are going to save our guys,play pressure defense and significantly increase the offensive tempo then we have to go with the 10-man rotation.
Hey, Bay, I hope you're right. But it seems to me that if Rudy were ever going to do that, he would be doing it right now. The Rockets are going nowhere. Why risk those guys this year by over-playing them? The way Francis and Mobley play anyway, by taking it hard to the rim so much puts them at greater risk for injury. I don't mind the 3 guard lineup per se, but I hate the 3 guards the Rockets use excessively in the 4th quarter, because Moochie plays such crappy defense. I think Cat plays very good defense, but Steve plays very average. Add Moochie's crap to those and you get overall defense that can only be overcome with exceptional offense. Look at our record. People want to blame it on injuries, but KT has been better all around that Mo, Rice wasn't even here last year and Walt has been crap for 3 years. That only leaves Steve that truly makes a difference. With Steve in the lineup, we are about an average team. Last night was truly a joy to watch. The team seem committed to defense and moving the ball. The game was really decided with a conventional lineup. When the 3 guard started, the Rockets had the lead and the momentum of leading from the start. Moochie played very well offensively and more than offset his defensive poor play. I guess the key man for the Rockets now is Moochie. I think I'm getting a headache.
I actually think the best thing we can do with what we have is to let Walt go, go with the following rotation... Pg-Francis/norris Sg-Mobley/torres Sf-Thomas/rice Pf-Taylor/griffin C-Cato/griffin I think Thomas has more than earned his spot in the starting lineup with his play this year. I think Maurice should still keep his starting spot in the lineup, I mean, afterall he didnt play bad when he was playing and he is earning $8 mill per. Rice would be good with the bench unit because he would be a good 3 point threat. Griffin should rotate between backup center and power forward because he could match up well either way. We may pick up an awesome big man in the draft, if so, either Drew Gooden, Borchardt of Stanford or Chris Marcus, I think we may need to make a trade.
