I had this thought reading the Quagmire thread this week, I'm sure others have voiced it but I'm starting a thread to see how plausible ya'll think it might be. Saddam has delusions of granduer; we believe he sees himself as the man to lead a united Islamic world in it's epic battle against the Great Satan the US. However he knows he cannot win in a face to face match-up with the full force of US military. To devise a stategy he can win with he need look no further than Viet Nam where a vastly outmatched guerilla force, fought hit and run battles to inflict as many casualties on the superior forces as possible, until the tide of popular opinion in the US turned against the war. The way the vaunted Republican Guard melted away into the population without a fight gives Saddam the core of his guerrilla force. The mysterious disappearance of any signs of weapons of mass destruction denies much of the US's appearance of ligitmacy. And Saddam becomeing a ethereal mystical figure frustrating the great powers' attempt to find him gives a popularity with the masses that he could have never had any other way. I fear that this might have been his strategy all along. Certainly the Iraqi intelligence corp couldn't have ever thought they could prevail in a short term force on force war. A drawn out guerilla war of attrition was their only hope of final victory. Their sabotage efforts against their own people has been puzzeling effective in turning the popular opinion aginst the US. It's like they set us up.
I remember reading a pre-war article about how Sadam was spreading assault weapons and other arms to the tribal chieftans of Iraq. This was definitely part of the guerilla war strategy. I have read that the US was effective in buying out some of the generals of the Republican Guard ,who were to defend Baghdad. The generals were also supposedly pissed off at Uday who stupidly made some of the better units fight out in the open and be slaughtered outside of Baghdad by airpower.. I do think Sadam planned to hold out with a house to house fight in Baghdad, that didn't happen. YOu could argue that it is sort of happening now. Now Sadam's plans haven't gone turned out as he hoped. The guy whose plans may be working out is Bin Laden-- the collosus pinned down all over the world, fighting a dozen wars at once, gradually losing allies and exhausting itself little by little,
If I remember correctly, Arabs have been fighting that way for centuries. How many different countries have tried to run them over? They're pretty good at running out all types if "infidels". But I'm just not convinced that Sadaam is really behind <i>all</i> of it. Him having to move around so much, I just don't see him having the opportunity.
