Democrats skeptical SCOTUS will save them in November

Ds win elections with turnout. Overturning Roe guarantees a huge turnout, especially younger voters.

 

I agree that the folks who are upset about the gov letting states set abortion rules were likely to vote already.

 

JJ Reddick has to make sure his new side chicks live in states where he can abort
@J.R.

 

you mean this was leaked strategically?

 

Young people don't shift elections.

Fact is this isn't going to change much. Biden is taking the blame for inflation and Democrats right now seem defeated and dejected. My bet is on a historic sweep in Nov and likely the most right wing agenda this country has ever seen in our lifetimes.

 

It's pretty sad if inflation ends up being a bigger electoral issue than civil rights.

Since one of my children is looking at colleges now, I've been reflecting on this. I've advised all my kids that they should look at the political environment of the states that colleges are in and essentially rule out all the ones located in conservative-leaning states. There is a decent chance that where they go to college is where they end up living long-term. I'd gone to school in Chicago and stayed a couple years thereafter, but then elected to come back to Texas. I'm happy to stay and fight for the soul of the state. But there's no reason my kids need to put up with this bs. And it's not just abortion rights, its all the bs bathroom bills, and book bannings, and castle doctrines, and climate-denying, and lack of social services. It's fine for me now at my age and at my station, but I don't want them coming back. New York or Massachusetts or California can add a few more well-to-do and well-educated residents to their economies. Texas has a great economy, but otherwise it's turning to trash.

 

That it could affect close races is...kind of the point? No one thinks any issue is going to turn Alabama blue. Affecting close races is how you win the map.

Also, Democratic strategists are idiots. If they don't make every single Republican stand their ground on this issue, they are stupid. The majority of people are on their side on this issue, always have been, running away from it is just dumb.

This is their chance to actually remind the country that they have been right on culture war issues and shut down all the GOP politicikng about 'wokeness' being a danger to the country. Just yesterday Joe Rogan said that this is crazy and he thinks is wrong...I know, Rogan might not matter to people here but he's a good litmus test for 'independents'...get as many republicans you can to speak about ending Roe V Wade, make them own it, it WILL help.

this is so stupid. They always are more scared of riling up republicans than trying to rile up their own base...even when poll after poll after poll after poll show a VERY strong majority agrees with them on this very issue.

This is why they lose, instead of strongly defending this, saying "Abortion is a legal right" and sticking their chest out, they whisper it to close friends hoping anyone that opposes them doesn't hear.

I see Mallory McMorrow taught the feckless dems nothing at all. They will just go back into their shells and let the GOP lead the narrative on this once again.

 

As I said in the other threads the GOP are already running an election based on turnout and not based on winning a broad based coalition. The candidates that they are putting forward such as JD Vance aren't ones who will reach out to moderate voters. They are counting on that inflation and Biden's unpopularity won't so much get voters to vote for them but just not show up a the polls. This is an issue though that will get the Democratic base to the polls and possibly a fair amount of swing voters.

Also this issue isn't just about this draft ruling. It will be how states act and GOP in Congress act on it. Several states already have trigger laws that will go into effect banning abortion. That is far bigger than just the incremental restrictions we've seen. It is very possible that GOP in Congress will push for a nationwide ban on abortion so this won't just be an issue confined to Red States. All of this will play out over the Summer and Fall leading up to the midterms.

Also the same logic that Democrats can't win just on not being the party of the Trump applies to the Republicans. They can't win on just being the party of Trump but especially in Senate races still have to appeal to something more than their base. Candidates like Vance are running all in on Trump and that 2020 was stolen. We saw Glenn Youngkin win by ignoring that and using a cultural issue that had wider appeal. So far it looks like there are more Vances than Youngkins but the issue of Abortion gives Democrats a big cultural issue they can win on. So a Youngkin type candidate might try to bring up things like CRT and LGBT agenda in schools will have to answer where they stand on abortion. That gives the Democrats an edge they didn't have much of before.

 

If Democrats focus on civil rights over the economy, they will surely lose.

A certain poster made an astute observation from an article they came across. It stated the more diverse a neighborhood, the lower the crime. The article intentionally left out the fact that the more wealthy a neighborhood is, the less crime is present. The middle to upper class neighborhood are less concerned about their neighbors provided they are not a nuisance.

If the government does not get inflation under control, whatever ones belief on how to handle it, the lower class will get hit the hardest. Getting and keeping people out of poverty is the greatest tool to fight civil rights issues.

That said, I highly encourage people to leave their state and move to a better one if they dont like it.

 

I agree with you most of this and I think you are equating this particular article with what Democrats will actually do, The way Biden is already talking about this issue shows you "Democrats" are not running away from this issue and this issue is not something that will drive most Republicans to the polls IMO its a hardcore base issue and most of those people will vote R anyway.

I think this is a Republ;ican overeach and will have some real backlash with swing voters.

 

Texas is becoming like the Arab states
Where they have the money in the world.. . but social. .. . things are . . .awkward at best for minorities

Rocket River

 

I'd bet money on it

Rocket River
Mobilize the Base!!!

 

9 months into Texas's abortion law, and there still isn't a reaction in polling to suggest that it's a political mistake.

It's gonna take some blood and tiktok story telling to ramp up the outrage. Clouds are forming in the distance but not this election year...

 

Is that an invitation to the people of Honduras and Nicaragua?

 

Honduras and Nicaragua has departments. But sure, if they don't like the department they live in, they can move to another one in their respective country.

 

Partly that might be due to that the Texas abortion law hasn't been enforced. Also as noted the Texas law isn't an outright ban. Many of trigger laws that are already on the books would be an outright ban on abortion in almost all cases. Now its possible that those states won't enforce those laws and they will be a non-issue but I think there is enough heat from the anti-abortion side to press for enforcement.

My prediction is that the ruling will be largely what we've seen and that trigger laws will be enacted. Sometime this Fall we will start seeing stories about women and doctors prosecuted for seeking and providing abortions which will fuel a further wave of interests in this issue.

 

If they don't like their country, they can come to ours. That's the logic you are presenting. love it or leave it baby.

In fact they have more reason to leave. Often their lives are in danger and that's the motivating force to leave their loved ones and culture behind.

 

I don't see it going that way. The trigger laws will be enacted, and the stories will come out. But the indifference will remain. The people who are passionate about this already come out to vote. I don't think it's going to shift a lot of people. That's just my opinion but we shall see of course.

What I do think is that Republicans will be energized by this victory and it will be used to take it to the next level - a national ban on abortions, very achievable if they win the white house in 2024 and remove the filibuster.