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Democrats should go into another line of work if they can't retake the House

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by insane man, Oct 5, 2006.

  1. insane man

    insane man Member

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    What Goeth Before the Fall

    By George F. Will
    Thursday, October 5, 2006; A33

    The Reverend Elmer Gantry was reading an illustrated pink periodical devoted to prize-fighters and chorus girls in his room at Elizabeth J. Schmutz Hall late of an afternoon when two large men walked in without knocking.

    "Why, good evening, Brother Bains -- Brother Naylor! This is a pleasant surprise. I was, uh -- Did you ever see this horrible rag? . . . I was thinking of denouncing it next Sunday. I hope you never read it."

    -- Sinclair Lewis, "Elmer Gantry"

    In life as in literature, Elmer Gantry is a recurring American figure. He is making yet another appearance in the matter of former representative Mark Foley.

    Sinclair Lewis's "Elmer Gantry," like most of his novels, is dreadful as literature but splendid as a symptom. Published in 1927, the year Charles Lindbergh flew the Atlantic and Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs and the American craft of ballyhoo was being perfected, the novel was a cartoonish blast of contempt for tub-thumping evangelists who were doing well for themselves while pretending to do good works to redeem this naughty world. Gantry succumbed to temptations of the flesh and the real estate market. The modern twist to the fall of Foley -- public protector and private predator of children -- is the warp speed with which it moved from exposé to therapy: Foley, who has entered alcohol rehab, says he takes "responsibility" for what he has become as a result of abusive priests and demon rum.

    Having so quickly exhausted the Oprah approach, the Foley story moved on to who knew what, and when. That drove Speaker Dennis Hastert to the un-Oprah broadcasting couch on which Republicans recline when getting in touch with their feelings. To Rush Limbaugh's 20 million receptive listeners, Hastert, referring to Republicans as "we," said:

    "We have a story to tell, and the Democrats have -- in my view have -- put this thing forward to try to block us from telling the story. They're trying to put us on defense."

    It is difficult to read that as other than an accusation: He seems to be not just confessing a coverup but also complaining that the coverup was undone by bad manners. Were it not for Democrats' unsportsmanlike conduct in putting "this thing" forward, it would not be known and would not be disrupting Republicans' storytelling.

    Their story, of late, has been that theirs is the lonely burden of defending all that is wholesome. But the problem with claiming to have cornered the market on virtue is that people will get snippy when they spot vice in your ranks. This is one awkward aspect of what is supposed to have been the happy fusion between, but which involves unresolved tensions between, two flavors of conservatism -- Western and Southern.

    The former is largely libertarian, holding that pruning big government will allow civil society -- and virtues nourished by it and by the responsibilities of freedom -- to flourish. The Southern, essentially religious, strand of conservatism is explained by Ryan Sager in his new book, "The Elephant in the Room: Evangelicals, Libertarians, and the Battle to Control the Republican Party":

    "Whereas conservative Christian parents once thought it was inappropriate for public schools to teach their kids about sex, now they want the schools to preach abstinence to children. Whereas conservative Christians used to be unhappy with evolution being taught in public schools, now they want Intelligent Design taught instead (or at least in addition). Whereas conservative Christians used to want the federal government to leave them alone, now they demand that more and more federal funds be directed to local churches and religious groups through Bush's faith-based initiatives program."

    To a Republican Party increasingly defined by the ascendancy of the religious right, the Foley episode is doubly deadly. His behavior was disgusting, and some Republican reactions seem more calculating than indignant.

    Foley's name remains on the ballot in Florida's 16th Congressional District, which means that Democrats, who needed 15 seats to capture the House, now need just 14. Thirteen, actually: In Arizona's 8th, where Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe is retiring, Republicans used the primary to vent, nominating a probably unelectable fire-breather on the immigration issue.

    After the 1936 election, in which President Franklin Roosevelt shellacked the Republican nominee in all but two states, a humorist wrote: "If the outcome of this election hasn't taught you Republicans not to meddle in politics, I don't know what will." If, after the Foley episode -- a maraschino cherry atop the Democrats' delectable sundae of Republican miseries -- the Democrats cannot gain 13 seats, they should go into another line of work.

    georgewill@washpost.com
    © 2006 The Washington Post Company
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/04/AR2006100401539.html
     
  2. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Texans vs Dolphins all over again

    Rocket River
     
  3. RocketMan Tex

    RocketMan Tex Member

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    :D:D:D

    Well, George Will does have his points. Things are setting up for the Dems like icing on a cake. It's almost like the Republicans are handing things over. Will they take it? Only time will tell....
     
  4. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    It would be the best thing for this country...by a LONG way if the Dems get control.

    Make Bush's last 2 years...lame duck years.

    DD
     
  5. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Republicans must be punished. If they don't lose the House their arrogance and lack of accountability will go to even more ridiculous levels.

    Bush is already a roast duck. Been that way ever since his re-election. Republicans are running away from him in droves because he's radioactive. Right now, you have 3 major political entities: Dems, Repubs and Bush-ites. Bush-ites will have close to zero influence after the election while the two major parties flail away towards 2008.
     
  6. jo mama

    jo mama Member

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    dont get too cocky dems!

    are you a little concerned about all those electronic voting machines?

    we saw that in 04 the exit polls, which are usually right on, called kerry to win and look what happened.

    and the diebold president promised bush ohio.

    the system of voter fraud is already well inplace.
     
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    The big problem the Democrats face is that House elections have been getting less and less competitive due to the money that an incumbent can raise, more redistricting, and other issues. In 2002, only 4 challengers won against incumbents - that's the lowest in modern history. Overall, there has been a trend of more incumbents getting re-elected.

    So everyone who says "this is just like 1994" needs to consider that incumbents are far more secure overall than they were back then.
     
  8. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    I could not disagree more with you Major.

    I think the country is upset, and wants a change, just like '94.....whenever things are going well, people vote encumbent, but I know TONS of republicans who are voting str8 dems this election to cut Bush off at the pass.

    Got to get rid of the Patriot Act, the Torture bill, and kill the internet gambling bill as well.

    GO DEMS !!

    DD
     
  9. FranchiseBlade

    Supporting Member

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    I don't know how much of lame duck really is. It is true that Republicans are running from him, but he still got his torture bill passed. He still managed to get what he wanted in that area.
     
  10. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    That all goes away with control for the dems of one or both houses.

    DD
     
  11. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Major, I agree that Democrats should take nothing for granted, but I would argue that the only reason a landslide similar to '94 will be difficult is because of the sophistication of redistricting. The use of computer numbers crunching to draw districts after the last census (and apparently whenever a GOP legislature feels like doing it... one has only to look at redistricting that never should occurred in Texas, and the resultant districts, to see what I mean) has made what used to be an inexact science into the ability to select different sides of a street to pick up extra potential votes.

    Democrats should win big in November in the House races. They will win, but not as big as they traditionally would due to that technology. That, and Diebold voting machines. (in my opinion, and I hope I'm wrong about voting fraud)

    The Republican Party should resign itself to that old saying, "What's good for the goose is good for the gander." They will howl when Democrats do the same thing Republicans have done with redistricting. They shouldn't. It was the GOP that opened this Pandora's box. We need redistricting reform. Good luck with that! At least the GOP won't have to worry about election fraud like Democrats have experienced. One of the first items of business will be an attempt to push through reform requiring paper ballots to insure fair voting. Republicans are attempting to prevent it. Democrats will push it through if they have a majority. The days of LBJ picking up phantom votes in the Valley are decades past.



    Keep D&D Civil.
     
  12. Major

    Major Member

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    I agree with that - but that's not the point. Incumbents have a far bigger inherent advantage than they did in 1994 due to the structure of the process. They have far more money to build name recognition, the districts are far "better" gerrymandered to ensure that one party has a huge advantage, etc. Whereas you might switch 50 seats if you turn 10% of the voters in any given district in 1994, you might only win 20 seats now. (numbers are just examples)
     
  13. Major

    Major Member

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    I completely agree here.

    The only problem here is that the Senate has to go along with it. Even if the Dems take the House (I think it's 50-50), the Senate will be much more difficult.



    Keep D&D Civil.[/QUOTE]
     
  14. rhester

    rhester Member

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    As long as a republican or democrat gets elected the country will continue to be run by bankers who control and own the Federal Reserve Banks.

    The bankers have divided us on purpose into two fairly equal groups.
    So that when a Republican is doing what they want- the Dems can complain, so that when a Democrat replaces the 'Pubs- the republicans can complain.

    That way nobody complains about the wealthy elitest bankers and industrialists.

    link
     
  15. Saint Louis

    Saint Louis Member

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    It is really such a simple system to keep in place, the political version of "good cop, bad cop".
     
  16. rhester

    rhester Member

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    Politics :mad:

    good cop, bad cop exactly-it's the perfect system to enslave people.

    Plato first qualified it
    Hegel simplified it
    Engels and Marx institutionized it

    It's the dialectic.
     
  17. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    More news that makes the elections look good for Democrats:


    October 5, 2006

    Voters Say Scandals Will Affect Votes'

    By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
    Filed at 11:57 a.m. ET

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congressional Republicans, already struggling against negative public perceptions of Congress, now face voters who say new scandals will significantly influence their vote in November.

    With midterm elections less than five weeks away, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that about half of likely voters say recent disclosures of corruption and scandal in Congress will be very or extremely important when they cast their vote next month.


    The poll was conducted this week as House Republican leaders came under increasing pressure to explain what they knew of sexually explicit messages from former Rep. Mark Foley of Florida to teenage pages.

    More troubling for Republicans, the poll found that by a margin of nearly 2-to-1 likely voters says Democrats would be better at combatting political corruption than Republicans.

    The Foley scandal, fueled by new revelations each day, has put Republican leaders and GOP candidates on the defensive, forcing them into a political detour just as they were preparing their final offensive against Democrats to save control of Congress.

    The poll also found that President Bush's efforts to depict the war in Iraq as part of a larger campaign against terrorism and to portray Democrats as weak on national security was not altering the political landscape.

    Approval of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq was at 37 percent among likely voters, down slightly from 41 percent last month. Bush's rating on handling foreign policy and terrorism also fell slightly, from 47 percent last month to 43 percent this month.

    Similarly, recent good news on the economic front -- from lower gas prices to a rising stock market -- did not appear to pierce through the public's downbeat view of the economy. Fifty-six percent of likely voters disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy, compared to 59 percent who held that view last month.

    The poll of 741 likely voters, was conducted Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

    Overall, the president's and Congress' low approval ratings were essentially unchanged from last month. Among likely voters, 24 percent approved of the way Congress was handling its job and 39 percent approved of Bush's job performance.


    http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Republicans-AP-Poll.html

    Ouch!!


    Keep D&D Civil.
     
  18. insane man

    insane man Member

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    guys just starting out we have two seats. delays and foleys.

    i think the house is way more probable than the senate.
     
  19. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Add yours to Will's and it is up to 3 or down to 12 depending on how you want to look at it...

     
  20. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    4 or 11?

     

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