Declassified national Intelligence Estimate is RELEASED

vwiggin · Sep 26, 2006

http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/Declassified_NIE_Key_Judgments.pdf

That's the link to the pdf. I'm having a hard time downloading it. But I did see the Iraq-related stuff posted on Reddit:

http://reddit.com/info/jxp8/comments

From Reddit:

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

• The Iraq conflict has become the cause celebre for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.

• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement:

(1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;

(2) the Iraq jihad;

(3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and

(4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslimsall of which jihadists exploit.

....

Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role.

....

The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qaida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations.

....

We judge that most jihadist groupsboth well-known and newly formedwill use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics.
Click to expand...

rimrocker · Sep 26, 2006

They stonewalled on all the previous releases... must have made a calculated decision that this would have dogged them for days or weeks, so better to get it out now so you have weeks to recover before the election.

mc mark · Sep 26, 2006

So they declassify four pages of a thirty page document.

bfd

Let's see the NIE that has no name dealing with Iraq alone.

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Declassified national Intelligence Estimate is RELEASED

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