http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750 Released: October 24, 2003 Dean Soars into Huge Lead in New Hampshire Now Leads Kerry 40-17 Among Likely Voters; Clark and Edwards in Distant 3rd --New Zogby Poll Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean has opened a large lead over his closest challenger in New Hampshire according to the newest poll by Zogby International. Dean earned 40%, compared to Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s 17%. None of the other candidates have exceeded single digits in the polling. Retired General Wesley Clark and North Carolina Senator John Edwards are tied for third with 6% each. Zogby International conducted interviews of 500 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, chosen at random statewide. All calls were made from Zogby International’s headquarters in Utica, NY from October 21-23, 2003. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%. Margins are higher in sub-groups. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt received 4%, followed by Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman’s 3%. Civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Mosley Braun, and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich each received less than one percent. Just under one in five (19%) are not sure which candidate to support at this point. New Hampshire has the first-in-the-nation presidential primary on January 27, 2004, kicking off a number of state primaries throughout the late Winter and Spring. Two-thirds (67%) say they are satisfied with the current field of Democratic candidates, while 28% wish other candidates were running. Three in five (60%) of those Democrats and Independents polled say regardless of how they intend to vote, it is somewhat or very likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected. Slightly more than one-third (37%) says that his re-election is not likely. Just one in five (22%) of the Democrats and Independents polled describe President Bush’s job performance as excellent or good, while 78% give him a ‘fair’ or ‘poor’ grade. Four in ten (40%) say they like the President as a person, and 43% say they dislike him. A majority (54%) of likely voters in the Granite State’s primary say Democrats should elect a moderate centrist who can appeal to independents, while just over one in four (27%) would prefer a nominee who represents the Democratic wing of the Party. More than half (57%) feel the Democrats should nominate someone with a political ideology closer to that of former president Clinton, while 24% feel the party should take on a more liberal leaning. Nearly one in four (39%) think their candidate should be a lifelong Democrat, while 19% are willing to accept a recent convert, and 30% say it makes no difference. A plurality (43%) would back a candidate who opposed the war in Iraq, while one-third (33%) would favor one who supported the war. Three-fourths would support a Democrat who supported the war effort, with just 9% saying they would be more likely to support President Bush. Pollster John Zogby: “This is stunning. Dean leads 43-20 among Democrats and 35 to 11 among Independents. He hits 40 among all age groups, union and non-union voters. His lead is 57-17 among self-described progressives, 50-20 among liberals, and 34-14 among moderates. Married voters give him a 38-13 edge and singles a 45-21 point lead. He holds huge leads among all education groups, among investors and non-investors, men and women. This qualifies as juggernaut status. Can he be stopped?”
I think the article got something wrong. Trader Jorge has proclaimed that his campaign was staggering and reeling multiple times. How could it be that he has this lead?
I welcome Dean's candidacy. He is quite frankly, unelectable in a national election versus a Republican. His appeal is with the extreme liberals of the Democratic electorate. The 'angry liberals' will not be able to deliver the votes needed in November. He has no credibility on the War on Terror. He was against the war, which is a hugely minority opinion. He is an angry, stiff man who is far to confrontational and belligerant to appeal to the independents.
Dean has a perfect scorecard from the NRA and is conservative toward government spending. And you were bashing another poster for not doing his research.
That's all well and good, and I commend him for these stances, but what you fail to grasp is that Dean's candidacy is *defined* by his anti-war stance. This stance will cripple him in November.
The funny thing is that I just saw Kerry on Hardball a couple of nights ago. Maybe being behind is just what he needed. He looked funny, aggressive and smooth. He was 100% better than the hesitant overly nerdy/ intellectual guy I saw on a debate a month ago. TJ, I do agree Iraq will make or break Bush. Certainly there isn't anything else for the guy to point to. I do think if things continue as they are it will be hard for Bush to spin Iraq as a shining success. .
Clearly, it looks like Dean will win New Hampshire. I found the numbers on the different questions not pertaining to particular candidates intriguing. The folks up there seem a bit conflicted. They clearly like Dean, however. It's going to be a gas watching this play out through this and the rest of the contests. I think we've got a great group of Democrats running and Bush keeps looking more vulnerable by the day. I think the insiders in the Administration are sensing this as well. We see more and more tension, sniping and finger-pointing coming from the Bush Cabinet and his advisors. I think cracks are showing in their solidarity. And more evidence of infighting shows up everytime another recently retired career government official speaks out. Bush is going to follow his father and become a one term President.
I'd just like to go on record as having supported Dean as the best candidate since he began his candidacy. Back then I said I didn't know much about him and that he probably didn't have a chance, but that he had my support as the best candidate. I know plenty about him now and he has a hell of a chance. And he's still the best candidate. I wish like hell that search was on (probably never will be again) so I could pull up that first post I made way back when he first announced. Anyway. Go Dean.
p.s. Dean winning NH almost definitely means the end of Kerry. If he can do the same in Iowa, that almost definitely means the end of Gephardt. That kind of momentum almost definitely translates into big wins in the next round (especially considering the money Dean can afford to spend in SC and elsewhere). Clark probably screwed up waiting for South Carolina or Oklahoma or Arizona or wherever he's trying to stake his claim. For the month before Iowa everything you'll hear (TV, newspapers, internet, etc.) will be from Dean and Gephardt. If DG pulls that one out, Kerry's loss in NH might make it a two man race. If he doesn't, it's everybody versus Dean with the clock running down. If these other guys were real loyal Democrats, they'd check out the writing on the wall and start figuring out how they could help the doctor beat the dummy.
You've been consistent, Batman, I'll give you that. I'm still not conviced he's the winner we need, though. I'm not convinced that this will finish Kerry or that Iowa will be that important this time. And I still think Clark has a great shot at it. It would be nice, though, if these clips (out of context or not) of Clark praising Bush would come to an end. It's like Chinese water torture... getting him off-message. I still like him, but he's cutting things close, timewise. All this would have been better put to bed months ago. I'll say this. If Dean gets the nomination, he's going to beat Bush. The guy is ripe for a fall. You can almost see the whole house of cards wobbling... waiting for a little breeze to blow it all down.
Talking about Dean or yourself there I do agree with you that Dean is unelectable but that's because of his support of gay civil unions not his opposition to the war.
