The NBA's deadline to sign players to contract extensions passed at 11:59 p.m. ET Monday. Among the players not signed to extensions were the Rockets' Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry. http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/10274/the-2006-comeback While I figured that it was a foregone conclusion that the Rockets would wait until next summer to talk with Scola and his agent (given that Scola is likely to command a hefty salary), I found the complete lack of chatter about any negotiations with Lowry to be a little interesting. According to Chad Ford's article (linked above), Thabo Sefalosha, a starter for OKC and a quality young player, just signed a four-year, $14M contract extension. Personally, I think that was a great value for the Thunder and was actually on the lower end of what I think Lowry's value is. I find it rather telling about Morey's desire for salary cap flexibility that he did not offer Lowry a similar deal this October. Or at least none of us ever heard anything about it. A four-year, $14M deal, assuming maximum annual raises, produces a starting salary of $3M (actually, $2,994,487). This would have been Lowry's cap figure this summer, instead of the approximately $6.1M cap hold for him as a restricted free agent. Assuming that the Rockets definitely wanted to keep Lowry, signing him to an extension like this would have actually created over $3M in additional salary cap room. Even if the Rockets offered a higher starting salary, anything less than $6.1M would have created additional salary cap room for the Rockets next summer. This leads me to believe that either (a) an offer was made that Lowry and his agent felt was too low; or (b) more likely, no offer was made, with the Rockets valuing even $3M worth of cap space more than they do Lowry at this point in time. The Rockets could always re-sign Lowry next summer, with the added leverage of Kyle being a restricted free agent. But, unlike with Scola (whose $6.77M cap hold may very well be LESS than what his next year's salary will be, even as a restricted free agent), Lowry's cap hold far exceeds his market value. This means that the Rockets will be more likely to waive him if the right free agent comes along (albeit, not a max guy if the Rockets are keeping Scola). That, or both sides would need to come together on a new contract VERY quickly. Of course, almost anything can happen over the next few months as the season plays out. T-Mac could be traded to bring in a new star player (at which point cap space would be a dead issue). Shane could be traded to open up more cap room for next summer. But I still think that, barring some earth-shattering move, the Rockets would be well-advised to (1) keep this rotation together (including Lowry), (2) either re-sign T-Mac or trade him for another quality player or two under longer term contracts (and/or draft picks), and (3) use the team's salary cap exceptions to sign outside free agents. I suppose that not extending Lowry's deal does not foreclose any of these options (another reason why Morey is just so damn good at his job), but I would hate to see the team end up waiving Lowry for the sake of signing a third-tier free agent, especially when Kyle could have possibly been had for a bargain price this October.
Morey may be betting that Kyle won't get offered a contract next summer that the Rocks can't or won't match. I agree with you. I'd feel better if we'd locked him up. Lowry's looking like a terrific tandem with Brooks. Luis wasn't a surprise, as you pointed out.
I think Lowry's value is much closer to his cap hold than that contract Thabo received. It would only make sense because he's a much better player.
Ah this sux for Lowry. I knew we would wait for Scola, but I just saw the last AB interview in which he mention's how well Lowry has been playing. I hope this isn't a problem between Morey and Lowry's agent. Then again, Lowry not being extended could mean we are on the eve of trading for a PG (Rubio ring a bell?) or that Morey really wants to use our pick on one...
Scola is not eligible for an extension YET. A player must have 3 complete seasons to be eligible for extensions. After those he will be eligible for an extension and we'll also have bird rights on him.
My guess is that Lowry and his agent decided to hold out for a better offer in the summer. I just can't see how Lowry wouldn't be in Morey's plans going forward. He's our only reserve PG, and there don't seem to be many replacements available on the free agent market (which would indicate that Lowry's value is likely higher than Morey was willing to throw down at this point). I just hope we don't get priced out of Lowry's market after re-signing Scola and T-Mac.
I think both are in Rockets' future plan. You may risk overpaying them if you want an extension done.
Plenty of teams with cap space in 2010. A few players are going to be overpaid and some team might take a chance on him as their starter. I'm sure his agent is waiting eagerly for 2010 FA especially after this season's Rocketsball.
I think Lowry has earned it. He is young and he has been better and better every single year. He deserves it. As for Scola, he will be 30 if I am right so I'd wait with that decision.
To open enough cap room for a max contract you have to waive Scola, Lowry, McGrady, Landry and Hayes, which I don't see a slim chance of happening. We will actually have a 56m cap hold from my calculation if we keep everybody but McGrady. (the cap hold of the 1st round pick is also included) Most likely they will re-sign Scola, Lowry and possibly McGrady if he returns to elite status. Morey knows we don't have much cap room anyway so he's not in a rush to extend both guys.
Like Brooks said last night during the post game interview, Lowry is a starter in any other team. He's a keeper but MAYBE Morey wants him to shop around so we can match or get the feel of how much he's worth. Remember Landry? DM ftw... DM will cook something up. He always does...
Lowry would be sorely underutilized if he continues being a backup PG on this team...Morey might be able to trade him for a starter at another position.
As I correctly predicted, Battier is all but gone at the trade deadline and Lowry's rights will be renounced. He is easily replaceable and a 4 year, $14 million contract is overvaluing him. If you're a PG in your 5th year in the league and have never shown any signs of breakout potential (low fg%, lack explosiveness, poor perimeter/volume shooter) or averaged over 4 assists per game, it's just not gonna happen. Not sure why my thread was merged with Bima's.
So I did a little math: Yao (suppose he doesn't opt out, which is most likely the case): 17,686,10 Battier: 7,429,500 Ariza: 6,322,320 Scola: 3,284,667 * 2 = 6,569,334 Landry (suppose the team exercise the option): 3,000,000 Andersen: 2,500,000 Hayes (suppose the team exercise the option): 2,334,125 Lowry: 2,034,996 * 3 = 6,104,988 Brooks (option already exercised): 2,016,692 Dorsey (suppose we don't waive him. his contract is too small to make a difference anyway): 947,140 Budinger: 780,871 Taylor: 780,871 1st round pick (suppose it's the 15th pick): 1,677,840 Mensah-Bonsu, McGrady, Cook: waived Total cap hold: 51,908,914 I was wrong. The cap hold will be around 52 millions and it doesn't look too good.
I'm thinking he's keeping their contracts low and expiring/restricted FAs just in case the right deal comes along and they would need to be thrown in the deal to sweeten the pot for team x. I'm thinking their value will increase as their minutes do as well. From there we can wait for the teams like NO to see attendance fall and have to bail on big money guys like CP3 and so on. Possibly net our All Star of the future. Just a guess.
Bimathug, I appreciate your post all the time even if I don't agree. The lowry situation is somethinng I've said more than a few times. Lowry is good enough to start in this league. The idea of having 2 players at the same position the same age wasn't going to work. Lowry is worthy of the mle and a starters job. Brooks will cost about 6.5m and this is his team with a coach that personally drafted him. With pg play being important and the demand, lowry probably wants to be restricted. Looking at a team that really needs a pg and has play finishers is his hometown sixers. The rox can either trade him to them and maybe get a pick and resign conroy or wait till the off season and watch them throw the mle at him and the rockets refuse to match. Either way, this is his last yr in houston.
Doesn't something actually have to happen before you can say you correctly predicted it? I don't see us trading Battier or renouncing Lowry. We were very high on both of these guys and made trades to go get them. This is just how Morey works, he'll lowball Lowry so that we can get the best deal. I wouldn't take our lack of an extension as any sign that he isn't in our future plans.
As Bima pointed out, and Leeb (by implication, IMO) in his post, Morey is taking a big risk by not extending Lowry, not if he plans on keeping him. According to leebigez, he's not. Guess we'll see.
