I have just completed my update of the Rockets payroll and salary cap, and as such decided to do some speculating on what will happen in the off-season. Here is a run through of the scenarios as I see them. Background - At the end of this season, the Rockets total Payroll stands at near on $50 million. - They have 5 free agents this summer – Bullard, Colson, Norris, Taylor and Olajuwon. - They (probably) have 2 first rounds draft picks(#12 and #22) and 1 second round draft pick (#43) - They have a traded player exception. Webber The absolute minimum payroll the Rockets could attain, by renouncing all free agents, all exceptions and either renouncing or trading all draft picks is around $32 million. With the salary cap estimated to be around $43 million for 2001/2002, this would give the Rockets about $11 million to pursue free agents. Would this be enough to pursue Chris Webber? I don’t think so. As an 8 year veteran, Webber will demand the maximum of around $12 Million. Even if we can squeeze him in under the cap, that would leave us only 9 players under contract and no exceptions to sign any one else. All other players would have to be free agents signed to the minimum. Hello Pig Miller. Of course this all assumes that the Rockets stick with the current contracted players and no-one is traded. If we traded Walt Williams or Kelvin Cato the picture will change, but you have to assume that we would get equal value back for them. I personally think that Webber will not sign as a free agent anywhere, but will rather do a sign and trade with Sacramento to a club of Webber’s choosing. So a sign and trade is a realistic option for Houston to get Webber, especially if we are somewhat under the cap, and Sacramento does not have to take any baggage in the deal. He would not come cheap though – Houston would have to offer something decent in order for Sac to be interested. My thoughts on what will happen Webber will not sign here. Contrary to what everyone in the media seems to think, I don’t think the rockets need to make major improvements this off-season to be competitive in the west. Sacramento will be lost without Webber, and I truly believe Phoenix and Minnesota are on the steady decline. With a tweaked line up next year, the Rockets could finish as high as 6th in the west. Compete for the championship – maybe not, but every year is another opportunity to improve. Hakeem will be renounced regardless of whether we intend to keep him. As an un-renounced free agent, he counts $24 million towards the cap, and precludes any free agent activity. Matt Bullard, Colson and Taylor will also be renounced which will put the rockets at the salary cap, with all exceptions available. This doesn’t help us much, since if we intend to keep keep Mo, we need cap space. The only real alternatives are to renounce Shandon Anderson, which ,may or may not be an option depending on whether he opts out of his contract. If he opts out, the Rockets will renounce him – if not, he counts $2.8MM towards the cap. Next alternative is to trade away both our first round draft picks for a high future pick, which would free up another $2.3 mil in cap space and coupled with a renounced Shandon Anderson the payroll is now at $35.5 million. Here is where it gets interesting - I think that is enough to get Mo Taylor. We sign him to $7mil per year contract, and the Payroll is back up to around $43mil. Offer Hakeem the mid level exception ($4.1Million)– that is the highest we have available, since as he was renounced, we cannot use any bird exceptions on him. Add to that the fact that he would probably start here, and I truly believe that will be enough. Very few teams will be in a position to offer him more, and if they are, there is nothing we can do about it. I think it highly unlikely that Hakeem would go to LA or Miami and play second fiddle to Shaq or Zo. After signing Hakeem, we still have the $1 mil exception, which could be offered to Bullard. If he takes it, sweet, if not, bye bye. It would be a shame to lose him, but Mo is more important. I think Moochie could be squeezed in after that using an early bird contract, although I’m not sure whether he has earned those rights since his first year with the Rockets was a partial year. Otherwise he is getting the $1mil exception (if unused by Bullard), the minimum, or he going elsewhere. All the cap numbers are plus or minus $1.5Million, and there is the traded player exception of $1.2Million that should be factored in somewhere. I also believe that if the rockets really wanted to, they could keep Shandon. It would probably mean offering Mo a little less, but it is possible. On such scenario would be a) Shandon does not opt out, and waits for full bird rights net year b) Rockets renounce trade exception(or let it expire) c) Sign Mo to $6.3mil in first year. ------------------ ..as a man danced so the drums were beaten for him. Current Rocket's Salary & Contract Info
I thought our pick was going to be #13, and that we had to send our second rounder to Dallas this year? ------------------ President of the Anal Retentive School for Jerks Hey, I wanted to be president of something, and I swear everyone took every other presidential position already.
Davo, Why does Bryce Drew's $1,659,503 salary still count against our salary cap? I thought once we traded him to Chicago, his salary is off our cap.
It doesn't count - I have updated the spreadsheet but not the web page - I will have to do that tonight when I get home. ------------------ ..as a man danced so the drums were beaten for him. Current Rocket's Salary & Contract Info
Davo, did you see Nikestrads thread has some nice info http://bbs.clutchcity.net/ubb/Forum3/HTML/012642.html Smeg PS Will tape the Derby (Weagles v Dockers) tomorrow for ya and post it off on monday ------------------ "Repression never did me any harm (I finally ceased to include "stop masturbating" as one of my guilt ridden New Year's resolutions, but that's a different topic)." Achebe - programmer by day, Mrs Palmers Husband by night
I thought we gave up all exceptions if we fall below the cap, even if we happen to go back over it with signings. Is that not accurate? ------------------ The sky is falling!
I love it when people put thought and intelligence in to their posts. Great job davo. As one insider put it, the Knicks and Magic would have to "gut their teams" in order to get Sacramento interested. Neither team has the cap space and Webber saying he would sign for an exception and get Sacramento nothing should be viewed as the obvious bluff that it is. Houston on the other hand has the cap space. I don't think we'd have to give "equal value", but it wouldn't be Roy Rogers and a second round pick. All depends on Webber.... my gut right now says he's only serious about the Knicks. The problem is the Rockets weren't competitive this year at all in the West. They were 20-32, which put them at 4th worst West record among Western Conference teams. The West is brutal... no team in the East had better than a 16-12 record against West teams. Philly was 16-12, yet was 40-14 against the East. The Rockets have the backcourt, but until they get a serious player in the frontcourt they will just be pretenders in this Conference in my opinion. ------------------ NOTHING BUT .NET CLUTCHCITY.NET
Davo - Very good and insightful post, but I have a question. You have the Rockets with about $11m in free Cap space while RealGM has the Rockets with $25,863,387 in committed 2001-2002 contracts. That leaves about $16.8M of cap room. How come so much difference between you and them? The extra 5.8M means alot! ------------------ GATER
Not too shabby yourself Clutch. Hehe I don't think we need Webber to land a 7th or 8th spot next season, but if we want to be in contention for the title, it will take Webber and a solid defensive-minded Small Forward. We have pretty good luck with landing free agents(Signing Webber, Anderson, Pippen(Sign and Trade)), so say we do get Webber. If he signs for his max(12 mil?). That leaves about 5 million to retain free agents and sign draft picks. Mooch for lets say, 1.5 a year Draft Picks-I have no idea what the scale is, but we will probably end up dishing out about 4-5 million dollars Shandon-Unless he signs for the minimum, I don't think we can retain him, unless he goes for the early bird exception which for his 6 years in the league is 2.5 million dollars Dream-Will he play for veteran's minimum? Don't see it happening Colson-Minimum Los-flies to Detroit Mo-leaves for greener pastures(As in more money from a not-so-good team) Leaving: C-Cato/Collier PF-Webber/Thomas SF-Walt/Langhi SG-Cuttino/Shandon PG-Francis/mooch As well as three first rounders(One lottery pick) and one second rounder. If Steve, Webber, Shan, Cuttino mesh well, that team could cause damage. But If Webber does not sign, here is another scenario: Sign Antonio Davis for his price ragne(about 5-6 million a year) That leaves about 11 million to use to sign our free agents and draft picks Mo-resigns to try an get Bird exception in a couple seasons Mooch-1.5 Shandon-2.5 Draft Picks-5 Leaving no money to try to resign 'Los and Colson. I think that 'Los will go to Detroit, and the minimum will go to Sean Colson. This season Colson is only(Relatively Speaking) being paid 83,000. I thought the minimum was something like 250,000 dollars a year. Leaving C-Davis/Cato/Collier PF-Mo/Thomas SF-Wizard/Langhi SG-Cuttino/Shan PG-Francis/Mooch/Colson And three first-rounders and one second rounder. [This message has been edited by vj23k (edited April 22, 2001).]
Clutch is right on with this. The Rockets will not improve much next year unless they make some changes. Beyond that, while they may make the playoffs they will never come close to championship. Sacramento may be worse off next year, but why would Phoenix and Minnesota get any worse. I dont see them improving, but Phoenix is the 6th seed this year. Minnesota also has some good talent. Draft picks or not, KG is amazing, Brandon is a solid PG, Szerbiak is a very prototypical SF--I wish we had him-- and Joe Smith, as mediocre as he is, would be a good addition for them. Bottom line is, with no positive changes to the Rockets this season, they will be in nearly the same position next year, but will probably get in as a 7th or 8th seed. It'd be great to see them in the playoffs again, but my gut tells me that Rudy and CD have been "planning" for this offseason optimistically for a year and a half and they WILL make some moves. It should be fun. ------------------ Haha.. you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is: Never get involved in a land war in Asia. Only slightly less well know is this: Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!
SportingNews' report for the Knicks (and, I think, also for the Pistons) explains the need for New York to get Detroit in a 3-way trade to get Webber for Sacramento. That jibes with what others have posted here as rumor. This also goes with what my brother-in-law heard from a player in the Pacific Division. So, either Webber has duped the entire league (including the Kings organization) or we shouldn't count on landing Webber. If it happens, great. But I'm sure the Rockets will make a move rather than wait for Webber's Big-Apple-Dream to fall through. If we were reeeeeaaaaalllllly lucky, we could sign and trade both Mo and Shandon for a player wanting to leave his current team. Shandon may be leaving anyway. When we offered multiple picks, Walt and Cato to Chicago for Elton Brand, I wondered if we actually want to keep Mo next year. I know we will if we must; I like the guy. But he would help a team in the East more than in the West because the West has so many of the outstanding power forwards. ------------------
Too bad we can't get Brian Grant. ------------------ [This message has been edited by ROXTXIA (edited April 22, 2001).]
Actually what is his contract like. If we *cannot* keep Hakeem from leaving and IF he insists on going to Miami I would prefer we get some value. hakeem = GRant + Mason Rocket River ------------------
Wrong direction davo. You needed to subtract Shandon's amount, not hit the Rockets with it. Are you a fan or what? Also, RealGM has a different # Gater b/c of this little mistake as well as the fact that davo and RealGM have different #s for Walt and Carlos. I believe davo's #s are correct... but I find it very interesting that RealGM suggests that the Rockets have a team option for Carlos. One other cause of concern davo, is that you still have Drew's #s counting against your total cap space. Although the Rockets currently have that exception, it most certainly won't count against the cap this upcoming year. And one last difference is that you have the Rockets exercising their option on Langhi. This is certainly plausible, but it's merely a reason why you have different #s than RealGM... since it's only about 500K it's not really a huge difference. All in all, I think it's more plausible though that the Rockets will be able to get down to an effective cap of 28 or 29 million should they need to. Since it's more plausible that Moochie, Dream and Langhi will come back, this 'effective cap' or potential cap... will probably not be realized. If Chris Webber does offer to come though, whoa... Moochie and Dream will hopefully be able to stay. BTW, does anyone know when t-opts have to be exercised? (just as an example) Could the Rockets trade Cato for Chicago's Miller and then t-opt him for cap? ------------------ women love me, fish fear me.
BTW, if Carlos is truly a t-opt, and Shandon does in fact p-opt and is renounced, factoring in the RealGM error w/ Walt's salary (just assuming that it does go up to 6) and the team gets rid of the first rounders... not even factoring in dream day trades of Walt or Cato... it's plausible that the team could get down to 25 or 26 million... if Carlos were t-opted and renounced. Since I don't expect that to happen, and I expect Langhi, Moochie and Dream to comeback... let's hope for a dreamlike draft day trade of Cato for cap... and SAC to want Mo Taylor back in a sign & trade. ------------------ women love me, fish fear me.
I think MO + Cato for Webber is a good trade for SAC Town. I just don't see what they want from New York [that NY is willing to part with] or Detroit. I would trade Cato for Ben Wallace STR8 up Rocket River ------------------
GATER, Count on Davo being more accurate than RealGM. RealGM follows all the teams. Davo follows just one, and gets feedback from numerous posters here. GATER, why don't you write RealGM and ask that question for us. Ask them if they are counting the salaries of players we waived. Ask them if they are counting averaged salaries (over the course of a contract) or actual salaries for next year. Davo Couple of points: Are you counting our rookie-scale salaries for 1, 2, or 3 picks? Can we get to $12m by trading/renouncing those players/picks? We do not need to use the $1m exception on Bullard. We can renounce him and sign him back at minimum salary exception, which is equivalent to the $1m for a 10-yr veteran. vj23K The Early Bird Exception is max'ed at NBA league average salary. It is the Mobley contract...roughly $4.1 for next season.
heyp, in this particular situation, both RealGM and davo's #s are a bit off... davo still has Drew's #s slated for next year while RealGM appears to have the wrong #s for Walt and Carlos for next year. RealGM also includes Maloney's contract against the cap, which is I believe accurate. One other thing davo, the Rockets will lose their exceptions after they fall below the salary cap. The exceptions you mention for Dream and Bull will not exist. We can always get a definite # for this... can somebody w/ the right connection merely call the Rockets and ask the following question: If every player with a p-opt opted and was renounced, every player w/ a t-opt was opted and renounced, and all other FAs were renounced, what is the total salary for the Rockets? It seems as if it would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 26M (if Carlos has a t-opt) and 30 (depending upon RealGM's accuracy for the slated players). ------------------ women love me, fish fear me. [This message has been edited by Achebe (edited April 23, 2001).]
Achebe, Minimum salary exceptions always exist. This is different than the $1m exception teams receive once every 2 years. Dream and Bullard can both be signed to $1.1m no matter what happens, since that is their minimum salary as 10+ yr vets.
certainly heyp, but davo was discussing the mid-level and the other exception. ------------------ women love me, fish fear me.
