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Top 5 breakout players in 2011-12 Often too much attention is paid to what a player did in the offseason to affect a "breakout" season rather than the improved environment surrounding the player. True, a player's game might have gotten better, but so can his teammates, his coaching, his team. Here are five players in perfect situations whose environment could allow them to blossom in 2011-12. Ty Lawson, PG, Denver Nuggets 2010-11: 11.7 ppg, 4.7 apg, 2.6 rpg, 17.99 PER Hollinger 2012 projections: 18.8, 4.0, 7.8, 19.60 PER Lawson It's not Carmelo Anthony's team anymore, and it's still going to be a team that relies on a fast pace and frenetic play. In other words, it's perfectly suited for a super-fast point guard who is comfortable flying down the court. The Nuggets also have a roster that meshes well with a guard like Lawson. He's got a highly efficient low-post scorer, and other big men who can clog up the paint and start a lot of fast breaks with a bunch of shooters and wing racers. Lawson can orchestrate an offense in full or half court, and he's capable of racking up high levels of assists or points, depending on what the defense offers. Chauncey Billups' absence is just as important as Anthony's, in the sense that it gives Lawson control of the team. Still, having a veteran around like Andre Miller is invaluable to offer encouragement and wisdom. Expect Lawson to be a serious contender for an All-Star appearance, and Denver is a legitimate dark horse for the Western Conference title. Patrick Patterson, PF, Houston Rockets 2010-11: 6.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 16.77 PER Hollinger 2012 projection: 16.3, 9.4, 17.00 PER Patterson Patterson is already capable of being a starter in the league, but not in Houston, thanks to Luis Scola. So he'll have to settle for being the first big man off the bench. Considering the packed schedule, though, this means more playing time for Patterson. Scola will need more rest each game. Also factor in the likelihood that Patterson will get 5-10 minutes a game sharing time with Scola when Houston goes small. Patterson can score from the paint and perimeter, and he rebounds and defends like a veteran. He'll be in the running for sixth man of the year. This becomes more likely if Hasheem Thabeet and Jordan Hill do not play through the foul issues they most likely will have. Head coach Kevin McHale's will have no confidence, thus offering Patterson more minutes. James Harden, G, Oklahoma City Thunder 2011-12: 12.2 ppg, 2.1 apg, 3.1 rpg, 16.42 PER Harden 2012 Hollinger projection: 19.7, 5.1, 3.4, 16.75 PER Harden Harden was on the floor for 55 percent of the total minutes Oklahoma City played last season, as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both logged more than 70 percent. As the Thunder's third-best player, it's fair to expect at least a 10 percent jump in his minutes this season. Harden is learning to be a more assertive offensive player -- and athlete -- and is too good of a passer not to be on the floor more often alongside Durant. He can help Westbrook score more efficiently as well, and spaces the floor perfectly for them thanks to his perimeter shot. His improved defense will earn him more minutes, and if he learns to foul less he'll get even more time. It will be difficult not to start him, especially as the season wears on. Marcin Gortat, C, Phoenix Suns 2010-11: 10.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg,1.1 blkpg, 17.83 PER 2012 Hollinger projection: 14.7, 12.5, 1.2, 16.66 PER Gortat Gortat could make a case that he's the most underrated center in the NBA. But now that he's the full-time starter in Phoenix, he'll get his chance he is a top-10 center. His numbers could stagnate if Steve Nash is traded, but other than that, I see a steady diet of pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop with him. He's one of the few centers who can do both. And if given full starter's minutes, he should rank among the top defensive rebounders in the league. It makes sense for Phoenix to feature him for two reasons: The Suns can see if he's, indeed, the center of their future. Or perhaps he's someone who can be traded to a contending team needing a center in exchange for a bevy of young players and picks. Either way, it should be a second straight "career year" for Gortat. Tiago Splitter, F, San Antonio Spurs 2010-11: 4.6 ppg, 0.4 apg, 3.4 blkpg, 16.02 PER Hollinger projection: 14.3, 10.7, 1.5 ast, 14.94 PER Splitter Splitter played just 12 minutes a game last season, so he joins the Chicago Bulls' Omer Asik as two guys who would have played much more for 75 percent of the league. Unlike Asik, this season Splitter should get those extra minutes. He can post up and score inside; he can defend and rebound in traffic, and most importantly, he just knows how to play. As most assume, the compacted schedule guarantees fewer minutes per night for an aging Tim Duncan. But don't forget, forward DeJuan Blair is missing ACLs in both knees, so he'll likely have to skip some games too due to swelling. Splitter should soak up these minutes. And if the Spurs still can contend for the Western Conference's regular-season title, Splitter is likely going to get consideration for the league' most improved award.
12 things to watch in 2011-12 From the lockout to "where in the world is (insert star player's name here) going to play" to power teams and much improved lotto teams, so much has happened in the past few months. Except for games being played, of course. But that's about to change. The preseason begins Friday night and the regular season is just days away. So what will we be watching, specifically, this season? Let's look at the top dozen storylines I'll be focused on during what's already shaping up to be one interesting 2011-12. 1. Dwight's destination Dwight Howard's trade request still stands and he's made his wish list clear -- it's Orlando, New Jersey, Dallas or the L.A. Lakers. But where he ends up will just be the beginning. Securing Howard mandates making other changes as well, from finding more shooters for some teams to making a change at coach for others. No player in the league has more power to force change than Howard, who stands alone as the most dominant big man in the world. That includes Orlando, which will likely have to replace Otis Smith and Stan Van Gundy if it wants Howard to stay. Even if changes are not made to a team's GM and coach, style of play will certainly be adjusted to feature Superman. 2. Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and the most lethal play in the NBA The best two-man game I've seen in the past six years was the Steve Nash/Amare Stoudemire flat ballscreen high up in the middle of the floor. No one made the quick pocket pass or the late lob better than Nash. And Amare was the most nimble big man around, capable of twisting his way to the rim through traffic on those early passes or jumping to 12 feet to flush those late lobs. Defending it required all five guys, who had to choose to help middle or risk giving up an easy 3 or a wing slash to the rim. Griffin is now the only other big who can finish those two plays, and CP3 is just as genius at the pick-and-roll game as Nash. Surround that action with shooters/slashers and watch defenses melt. (Side note: Wait until Griffin is ready to make the 17-footer the way Amare can -- that'll give teams another dimension to defend.) 3. Who is this season's Memphis -- the surprise contender? Every season does not produce a Memphis, a team in 2010-11 with a great mix of young talent and veteran studs that played incredible defense down the stretch. But we do have some teams that might sneak into the playoffs and do some damage once they get there. It goes without saying that a Clippers team with Chris Paul will be much better than last season, and replacing Al-Farouq Aminu with Caron Butler makes L.A. even better. Who would want to play the "Blake and Paul Show" in May? It's just as obvious that the Knicks' new frontline will help propel them to better things this season. Houston, meanwhile, had the league's top offense after the trade deadline and made a strong playoff push. The loss of Chuck Hayes will hurt, but if Kevin McHale can help Hasheem Thabeet and Jordan Hill step toward their potential as defenders, or if GM Daryl Morey can use the team's considerable assets to add a top-tier small forward or center, Houston can make a big jump. Indiana, however, is primed to be the bigger surprise. In second-year wing Paul George and newly acquired David West, the Pacers should feature a defense that by season's end could be suffocating. One last dark horse, perhaps my favorite to be this year's Griz is the Nuggets. With Nene returning, Denver has the pieces to be very good. It may take more seasoning, but by March I'd guess Ty Lawson will be playing a very high level and Denver, which has always been able to score, will be a top-8 defense and a team capable of making the West finals. 4. Should these teams focus on the lottery? The 2012 draft will be full of potential stars, and some teams in need of top-tier talent would be better off not making the playoffs. Surely New Orleans might feel getting a top-3 pick will be the fastest way to replace Paul, and likewise Orlando if it loses Howard. The Wizards and Raptors look to be improved this season, but both could benefit from adding a star, which they'll have a hard time getting via trade or free agency. The same can be said for a number of teams out West, including Golden State, Phoenix, Portland and Utah. Every team mentioned in this space can put together a roster that can compete for the eighth playoff spot in its conference. But landing in the lottery this year isn't a bad consolation prize. 5. Late-game LeBron I still can't believe what I saw from LeBron in June, when he disappeared in clutch moments in the Finals. I'm not sure he can either. And I'm sure it's buried away somewhere deep in his mind, a dark and scary place he never wants to revisit. But what if he has a bad fourth quarter on Christmas Day in Dallas or in any other "must-see TV" game later in the season? Will doubts creep back into his head? It's fair to wonder how he'll respond, because it's likely going to happen -- every player has bad quarters, halves or games. Will he ever be the same postseason player he was prior to the Finals? Probably, but it bears watching. 6. Can Minnesota finally look like an NBA team again? Let's be honest: Kurt Rambis had an amazing pedigree and I expected him to be very good in his first coaching job. But he wasn't. And he proved to be no Rick Adelman. While Adelman is not going to win any personality contests, his offense is exquisite. With the talent on the Wolves, the team has the makings of an up-and-comer. There will be many nights of pain, to be sure, but the nights the players work in concert with each other will give us a positive look into Minnesota's future. 7. What direction will Portland take? What would L.A. do without Kobe and Pau? Miami without Wade and LeBron? It would be the same devastating situation Portland is facing. With just a healthy Brandon Roy or Greg Oden, the Blazers would still be on the right track. But that's not the case. It's a shame they might have to start over and move the talented young pieces they have, but it'd be understandable if they chose that route. On the other hand, they could still try to attract a star to pair with LaMarcus Aldridge. What will they do? 8. Can Steve Nash, Grant Hill and Tim Duncan outperform expectations? In their own ways, Nash, Hill and Duncan are true treasures to basketball. They play with dignity and class, they're phenomenal teammates, and they were truly elite players when they were in their primes. They were still relevant as players last season, too. But as we've seen all too often, players can suddenly fall off a cliff and lose most of their game quickly. The fact that all three of them have managed to not only avoid the cliff but continue to be extremely productive players only makes it more likely that they can't keep playing at that high level. 9. Is John Wall going to take a big step forward? Neither Derrick Rose nor Russell Westbrook were elite players in their second seasons, but that was the season both made big jumps and began to look like the special players we saw last season. Wall, like Rose and Westbrook, is 21 entering his sophomore season and has pieces around him that can help propel his game to the next level. If he only treads water in Year 2, like Tyreke Evans did (perhaps due to injuries), then his brand and the future of the Wizards will take a big hit. If he proves to be the outstanding talent we all think he can be, then it's fair to assume future free agents will target D.C. as their next stop. 10. Coaches on the hot seat I thought it was ludicrous to see people calling for Erik Spoelstra's job last season when Miami didn't blow out of the starting gate. It was just as strange to see him on the hot seat after the terrific job he did getting his team to the Finals. Unless you blamed him for LeBron's meltdown. But I didn't. So what happens if Miami struggles early on again? Can Spoelstra, even with a new contract extension, survive a bad start in a shortened season? Of course, Spoelstra isn't the only coach who will be looking over his shoulder when times get tough. Think Vinny Del Negro will feel secure if his team, led by Chris Paul, loses back-to-back games? How about Scott Skiles, whose team is a big question mark after having success two seasons ago? And what if Paul Westphal can't turn things around in Year 3 in Sacramento, where fans have good reason to be excited? When expectations are high and results low, heads will roll. 11. Will Daryl Morey be able to pull the trigger on a trade again? I'll be honest, I like Morey and respect the job he has done in Houston, not to mention his role in getting "geeks" (not the term I'd use) to be an accepted and even coveted part of the NBA. (Roland Beech of 82games.com is an assistant coach with the Mavs -- who would have ever predicted that could happen even five years ago?) Morey isn't the only GM who has suffered bad luck in the form of injuries to star players, but he is the only guy to construct a blockbuster trade that no one saw coming -- one that would have been followed by the signing of Nene -- only to have the league veto the deal. Morey is competitive and is the last guy to just sit back and see what happens. The Rockets have a ton of good-to-great players, although none have made the All-Star Game. Still, only one player is over 29, and Morey has extra draft picks, so the conditions are right for another big trade attempt. 12. Who's going to be the best team in L.A.? Quick, name the top NBA rivalries today and tell me which of them will have more star power and drama than Clippers-Lakers now? Plus, this is David vs. Goliath with a twist -- they live in the same house. The Chris Paul aspect of the matchup only adds more intrigue. Then factor in Kobe's will and how he'll refuse to allow any local player to outshine him. But don't forget that Paul is the most competitive guard in the league other than Kobe. And Blake Griffin has the power to steal the limelight away from anyone he matches up with.
Gasol has been exposed in the preseason game. I know it's preseason but it feels like regular season because of the lockout. He was slow and unathletic as hell. Terrible.
