Daryl Morey, The Rockets, and the "Moneyball" Concept

I know it's hard sometimes, but for a second let's look at the big picture here. I think the rockets will be in good shape so long as Daryl Morey is running the show. He has proven in a very short period of time that he is an elite GM that can make a huge difference for this franchise. If this team ever does get healthy, finally people will begin to take notice at how good we can be.

What gives me confidence is seeing how well Morey handles the salary cap, the draft, and trades. The moves he has made in just two seasons have been low risk/high reward. He has also shown an ability to admit a mistake and to learn from it and correct it. He is truly a beacon of hope for this franchise.

Obviously, You can't just point to one skill that Morey has that makes him good at what he does, but I want to focus on his ability to use numbers and statistics to predict future gains. "Moneyball" or " sabremetrics" are the terms often used to describe what I'm talking about, but I think that these terms should only be used when talking about baseball. Basically its all just using numbers to help make decisions. When I say numbers I don't mean points, rebounds, steals, or other basic statistics you find in a typical box score. Those numbers are important,obviously, but by themselves they are not very good at determining whether or not a certain player will make a positive impact on your team's chances of winning night in and night out. There are certain numbers that have proven to be more helpful than others.

I think one of the most useful statistics analyze is the plus/minus statistic. For those unfamiliar with this statistic, this is how to calculate it for an individual player: Using only the time that the player was on the floor playing, you add up the team's point scored and you subtract the oppositions points scored. You end up with a number that can be positive or negative. Obviously, the higher the value of this number, the more valuable the player is.

As an example, let's look at how Morey used this statistic in a trade involving Shane Battier. During the 05 draft, the rockets selected and traded the talented Rudy Gay for Shane Battier in a move that was controversial at the time, and one that will be scrutinized for years to come. It's a perfect example of a move made by Morey to directly improve the Rocket's winning percentage. Since the move, the Rockets have continued to be one of the winningest teams in the league. Yet still, the move will be criticized until the Rockets make a deeper run in to the playoffs with Battier playing a role in it. It is criticized mainly because with that move we got much older, much less athletic, and much less "sexy" for lack of a better term. So why did we make the move you ask? Well like I said in the beginning, to improve our winning percentage, and it has done that. Last year, Shane Battier had the highest plus/minus ratio on the entire team. That means that while he played, he had more of an impact on us winning than any other player we had, and in the long run, he wont cost us nearly as much as a Rudy Gay will. So the move is a good one for the short term as well as the long term.

To take the plus minus statistic to another level, you can use it with other statistics, like rebounding, or assists, turnovers or FG percentage. These are all statistics that have proven to directly have an effect on winning. I don't know for sure, but I'll be willing to bet that Battier's plus minus is good for all of these statistics. The team probably shot a better percentage while he was on the floor, they probably had a higher assist total and a lower turnover total, and I can safely say that Battier had a huge effect on opponent's FG percentage because he is a good player.

That is why I believe the Battier move is one of the MANY outstanding moves that Morey has helped make since he has been with the organization. It is a clear case where Morey picked up a low cost player that had a high effect on the team winning games, and he gave up a player that has barely won any games in the three years he has been in the league, and a player that will eventually demand a large contract because of his ability to post incredible numbers while not helping his team win many games.

Again, I think using statistics as a tool to predict whether or not to make a move is one of many reasons why Morey has been so sucessful as GM. The key to that sentence is "using statistics as a tool". The numbers are not the be all and end all. The numbers are just used to affirm what the eye can see. Watching Battier on tape, you truly get a sense of why the numbers are the way they are. He is an outstanding defender, he hustles, he creates turnovers and bad shots with his defense, he makes quick decisions with the ball on offense, he doesnt make mistakes, he is a smart passer, and he is an efficient scorer. He is a plus rebounder for his position and his jump shot spaces out the floor and makes his team mates better. He's one of the smartest basketball players in the game and you can see it when you watch him play. The statistics that normal fans concern themselves with don't do Battier any justice whatsoever. His points, rebounds, and assists are low by starter's standards, but again, those numbers aren't very good at determining a players value. Simply put, when he plays, he helps the team win which is more important than anything.

I hope that i have shed some light on why we should all feel food about the future of this franchise so long as Daryl Morey is making decisions. He understands the game and he understands how to use his resources to make the best decisions. Statistics or "moneyball" is just one of the many ways he does this. His ability to make the team better through the draft even without high picks is another way he makes the team better. Before Morey got here, when is the last time we used late round picks to instantly make the team better for now and for the future? Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry are both guys that have already far exceeded their draft status in terms of value to the team. That is just another tribute to how well Morey understands the game of basketball. Something that also deserves notice is his ability to manage the salary cap. He is truly a magician, and with good health and with Morey calling the shots, I'm confident the Rockets will be a consistant winner this season and in future seasons. You should be confident too.

If anyone has any more info about morey and his use of statistics, I would love to hear about it.

 

Well I think in today's NBA it is pretty rare to have a GM that understands the NBA game, the salary cap, and the NBA draft as well as Morey does. Alot of Owners are more concerned with ticket sales, and force to coaches to deal with poor rosters. The Rockets are clearly focused on winning first, and theyve assembled a roster that is build to win consistantly. Theyre in a good position cap wise also.

 

Look at the Phoenix Suns. Theyre an example of how a franchise can turn on just one bad decision by a GM. Kerr made a high risk move to acquire Shaq for Marion and it ended up backfiring and their franchise has clearly taken a huge step back.

That was a move that was obviously not very well calculated by Kerr. I dont think we have to worry about Morey making a move like that.

 

Here's My thing about that trade and why I feel it was monumentally stupid. First of all the team was built around 2 time MVP Steve Nash. A team led by Steve Nash is not going to be a half court team, ever. A Steve Nash team won't be able to play a lick of defense, and it definantly can't be a team that runs through the post.

A Steve Nash team needs to be quick and athletic at every position. It needs one player who can run the pick and roll, and 3 other guys spacing the floor with shooting. It also needs a quick and versatile defender/rebounder like Marion who can create turnovers and start fast breaks.

Kerr comes in and he wants to improve the team's defense. Understandable. So what does he do? He decides to trade by far their best defensive player, and he trades him for a guy that completely changes the identity of the team. The Suns were pretty damn good as a run and gun team led by Nash, and with one move, the Suns become a half court team led by an over the hill over rated superstar Shaquille O'neal. Nash is no longer anything close to being and MVP candidate, their defense still sucks, and to add insult to injury, they take on a terrible contract. The Spurs pick and roll Nash and Shaq to DEATH in the first round, and Nash and Shaq are a year older. New coach with no experience, and now a frustrated steve nash.

Terrible move.

 

I have no idea what you mean by that. "moneyball" is just a term coined by billy bean and all that he meant by it was how to put together as winning baseball roster with a very small budget. Basically in the book he talks about making the most efficient decisions possible.

He accomplished that in a variety of ways, but one way he did it was by using statistics to find and get players who contributed most to winning without demanding a huge pay check. By analyzing numbers, He found that players who had a high OBP were undervalued around the league. He also found that it was much less of a risk to draft pitchers who had longer college careers, and it was much more of an unnecessary risk to draft pitchers straight out of highschool.

"Moneyball" is a very misunderstood term in sports. It is specifically restricted to baseball and being competitive in a league with no salary cap. That being said, the book kind of made the idea of using odd statistics in order to determine players who basically help you win the most games without costing an arm and a leg. In basketball, Battier is a perfect example of a moneyball guy, and a player like Rudy Gay is someone a "moneyball" guy might conscider a risk. That trade was as "moneyball" as it gets.

Drafting Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry were "moneyball" moves as well.

 

Trading Donte Green for Ron Artest was pretty moneyball also given Artests contract.

 

No he wasnt anything "special" in college. I mean he was the best player on his team. And he was a guy that was undervalued because he wasnt a standout in any specific way.

The Rockets traded up to pick him, so they obviously knew that he had a good chance to help us win games, and he has done that.

I think the one year contract we gave him was because he had acl surgery on his knee and committing to a guy with not so special talent and a reconstructed knee is probably not the best idea.

 

Youre right, most good NBA teams have star players because talent is so important. But its about who u surround those players with that wins championships. Look at the Spurs for instance. Ginobilli was a late second round pick that became a star after everyone realized how good he is. Getting that much value out of such a small investment like a second round pick is what can be the difference between winning a championship and losing in the first round.

 

First of all he didn't pick those two guys to build around. Yao isn't going anywhere. He brings a whole continent to the rockets viewing audience. That alone will make him a Houston Rocket until he retires. Throw in the fact that he is one of the most valuable players in the league, and you have a franchise player.

Up until this year, Mcgrady was the only player on our team that could facilitate the offense. He was playing like an MVP candidate at the end of the last two seasons. Also, his playoff numbers are pretty remarkable. I understand why you would think you cant build around him. He is unreliable, but when he is right, he is one of the best players in the league.

 

True, but Duncan was a no brainer pick at number one. No GM in the world would have passed on him. It's the picks like using a late second round pick on Ginobilli that require an eye for talent that the best GMs have.